工作绩效综合评价与分级管理及实证

本文针对目前员工绩效评价中的问题进行研究。建立了绩效评价指标体系，给出工作绩效考评法；并据综合绩效进行归类分级，提出对员工分类激励的方法，给出实证结果。     

国债指数GARCH模型实证研究

上证国债指数2003年2月24日至2005年7月14日日收盘时间序列经一阶差分后是平稳序列,利用一阶差分序列建立的ARIMA模型存在自回归条件异方差,在ARIMA模型基础上建立的GARCH(1,1)模型、ARCH(1,1)-M模型、TA．RCH(1,1)模型,模型系数检验、标准化残差检验及自回归条件异方差检验都非常理想。由于一阶差分代表收益,利用GARCH(1,1)模型可以对上证国债指数日收益的波动性以及波动性的不对称性,即均值和方差进行准确地预测,同时按差分的定义可将GARcH(1,1)模型转化为预测下一交易日收盘的预测模型。     

Forecasting the geomagnetic activity of the Dst index using multiscale radial basis function networks

The Dst index is a key parameter which characterises the disturbance of the geomagnetic field in magnetic storms. Modelling of the Dst index is thus very important for the analysis of the geomagnetic field. A data-based modelling approach, aimed at obtaining efficient models from limited input–output observational data, provides a powerful tool for analysing and forecasting geomagnetic activities including the prediction of the Dst index. In this study, the process of the Dst index is treated to be a structure-unknown system, where the solar wind parameter (VBs) and the solar wind dynamic pressure (P) are the system inputs, and the Dst index is the system output. A novel multiscale RBF (MSRBF) network is introduced to represent such a two-input and single-output system, where the Dst index is related to the solar wind parameter and the dynamic pressure, via a hybrid network model consisting of two submodels: a linear part that reflects the linear relationship between the output and the inputs, and a nonlinear part that captures the effect of the interacting contribution of past observations of the inputs and the output, on the current output. The proposed MSRBF network can easily be converted into a linear-in-the-parameters form and the training of the linear network model can easily be implemented using a forward orthogonal regression (FOR) algorithm. One advantage of the new MSRBF network, compared with traditional single scale RBF networks, is that the new network is more flexible for describing complex nonlinear dynamical systems.     

Results of analysis of human impact on environment using the time series of vegetation satellite images around large industrial centers

The paper shows the efficiency of an application of the vegetation index image time series to determine long-term vegetation dynamics. The influence of large industrial centers of Siberia on the near-by vegetation is demonstrated. The analysis of the data shows that the influence of industrial waste is stronger in the Siberian North. These regions are characterized by critical conditions for vegetation existence. In the south of the Krasnoyarsk region, human impact is also important, but the possibility of vegetation self-rehabilitation is higher. The present-day economic situation in Russia is unique, with a temporary abrupt fall of industrial production and its following increase. Thus, we managed to analyze the degree of human impact on the environment within a relatively short-time interval.     

人机系统危险状态评定的AHP方法研究

本文利用改进的ＡＨＰ法,将１－９标度与（０,２）法有机结合采用群体判断矩阵的加权传递矩阵,     

民生视域下的河南省城区经济竞争力研究

基于民生视域构建出城区经济竞争力评价指标体系,运用熵值法确定指标权重,计算河南省17个地级市50个城区经济竞争力指数,并对评价结果进行分析.研究表明,大部分城区经济的竞争力指数偏低；城区之间的竞争力水平差距巨大；城区经济总量与综合竞争力之间存在偏差；城区经济竞争力强的城市,其综合竞争力也强.最后,为提高城区竞争力水平进而实现城市可持续发展提出对策建议.     

Magnetotail current contribution to the Dst Index Using the MT Index and the WINDMI model

In this paper, we have improved the capabilities of a low dimensional nonlinear dynamical model called WINDMI to determine the state of the global magnetosphere by employing the magnetotail (MT) index as a measurement constraint during large geomagnetic storms. The MT index is derived from particle precipitation measurements made by the NOAA/POES satellites. This index indicates the location of the nightside ion isotropic boundary, which is then used as a proxy for the strength of the magnetotail current in the magnetosphere. In Asikainen et al. (2010), the contribution of the tail current to the Dst index is estimated from an empirical relationship based on the MT index. Here the WINDMI model is used as a substitute to arrive at the tail current and ring current contribution to the Dst index, for comparison purposes. We run the WINDMI model on 7 large geomagnetic storms, while optimizing the model state variables against the Dst index, the MT index, and the AL index simultaneously. Our results show that the contribution from the geotail current produced by the WINDMI model and the MT index are strongly correlated, except during some periods when storm time substorms are observed. The inclusion of the MT index as an optimization constraint in turn increases our confidence that the ring current contribution to the Dst index calculated by the WINDMI model is correct during large geomagnetic storms.     

飞机座舱工效学综合评价研究及其应用

飞机座舱工效学综合评价是座舱研制中一个极其重要的问题.以往座舱研制过程中往往为其工程质量提出种种衡量标准而忽视了工效学综合评价,常导致设计出的座舱存在不少工效学方面的问题,原因在于没有合适的、可操作的评价方法和评价指标来指导座舱的工效学评价.针对此问题,提出了一种综合评价的方法体系.该体系能够实现征求和提炼专家群体的意见,考虑了工效学评价的模糊性,能较客观、科学的对飞机座舱工效学进行定量地综合评价,为比较类似设计方案的优劣提供了理论基础和方法.应用此方法,结合研究项目,对某型号飞机座舱尺寸设计的工效学进行了评价.评价结果得到了航空工程部门专家的认可.     

薄膜反射面结构新型折展方案设计

基于薄膜结构模拟方式的对比分析,选用VUMAT子程序修改了考虑褶皱问题的膜单元的本构关系,解决了膜单元不能承受压应力的问题。采用三维数字图像相关（3D-DIC）方法对聚酰亚胺薄膜材料进行性能测试,试验表明带折痕的薄膜材料的等效模量比无折痕的薄膜材料低15%左右。在考虑折痕弹性模量差异的基础上采用显式计算方法对Miura折纸的展开过程进行了仿真,并基于平面度和最大应力2个指标对不同数量加载点的情况进行了对比,结果表明,加载点数量增多对结构的平面度和最大应力指标均是有利的。最后,基于薄膜结构找形和Miura折纸概念提出一种新的薄膜折叠方案。