基于密度权重的可靠性灵敏度分析方法简

 为了提高可靠性灵敏度求解数字模拟法的效率,提出了一种变量空间确定性低偏差均匀抽样与样本点处联合概率密度函数构造权重相结合的方法,来估计可靠性灵敏度。该方法通过均匀样本点处联合概率密度函数的权重保证了可靠性灵敏度的估计值收敛于真值,而由低偏差抽样代替原问题中的联合概率密度抽样则可以保证更低的误差阶以及在小失效概率条件下抽得的样本有更高的可能性落入失效域,从而保证了所提方法具有更高的收敛速度。另外,所提方法可以采用与独立变量相同的步骤来估计相关变量情况下的可靠性灵敏度,计算简便,适用范围广。算例充分证明了所提方法的优越性。     

中国出口贸易多样性的度量及政策建议

首先对出口贸易多样性的度量方法进行了梳理和评述,同时利用BACI在1996~2010年间的贸易细分数据,从出口产品多样性和出口地区多样性的角度度量了中国出口贸易多样性及其变化趋势。实证测度结果表明：虽然中国出口产品种类有略微减少的趋势,但中国出口产品多样性水平却在不断提高;中国出口贸易伙伴的数量仍然在增加,但中国出口地区多样性在2000年以后呈现＂U型＂的变化趋势,且自2008年开始中国出口地区依赖的风险在上升。因此,进一步提升中国出口产品多样性和中国出口地区多样性,是未来中国深化对外经济开放的一个重要政策取向。     

航天发射场导流槽综合性能评价指标体系研究

导流槽是航天发射场的重要核心设施,作用是排导火箭发动机产生的高温高压燃气射流。基于计算流体动力学原理,利用理论分析、试验研究和数值仿真方法,开展发动机燃气射流在导流槽内部流动特性以及射流噪声传播和辐射特性等火箭发射环境效应问题研究,对导流槽设计中关心的冲击、烧蚀、通畅性以及喷水冷却系统的效率和噪声防护等问题进行评价,初步建立导流槽优化设计综合性能评价指标,为导流槽综合性能设计提供重要的参考依据。     

室外大气折射率结构常数实时测量研究

与传统的射频链路相比,自由空间光通信FSOC（Free Space Optical Communication）系统是对现有无线通信技术的有力补充,为了抑制大气湍流对信号光束带来的相位噪声和强度波动,有必要对通信信道状况进行实时监测。首先介绍了基于光斑质心漂移的大气折射率结构常数测量方法,利用大口径接收靶面和窄带滤光片,结合实时图像处理算法,实现了大气折射率结构常数的全天候实时监测。将大气折射率结构常数和光强闪烁指数进行了比较分析,测量结果表明它们的包络之间具有很好的线性关系,进一步验证了实时测量系统的可靠性。     

Solar polar magnetic field dependency of geomagnetic activity semiannual variation indicated in the Aa index

Three major hypotheses have been proposed to explain the well-known semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity, maxima at equinoxes and minima at solstices. This study examined whether the seasonal variation of equinoctial geomagnetic activity is different in periods of opposite solar magnetic polarity in order to understand the contribution of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the Sun-Earth connection. Solar magnetic polarity is parallel to the Earth’s polarity in solar minimum years of odd/even cycles but antiparallel in solar minimum years of even/odd cycles. The daily mean of the aa, Aa indices during each solar minimum was compared for periods when the solar magnetic polarity remained in opposite dipole conditions. The Aa index values were used for each of the three years surrounding the solar minimum years of the 14 solar cycles recorded since 1856. The Aa index reflects seasonal variation in geomagnetic activity, which is greater at the equinoxes than at the solstices. The Aa index reveals solar magnetic polarity dependency in which the geomagnetic activity is stronger in the antiparallel solar magnetic polarity condition than in the parallel one. The periodicity in semiannual variation of the Aa index is stronger in the antiparallel solar polar magnetic field period than in the parallel period. Additionally, we suggest the favorable IMF condition of the semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity. The orientation of IMF toward the Sun in spring and away from the Sun in fall mainly contributes to the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in both antiparallel and parallel solar minimum years.     

Assessment of space debris collisions against spacecraft with deorbit devices

Deorbit methods have been employed to remove space debris from orbit. One of these methods is to utilize atmospheric drag. In this method, a membrane loaded into the spacecraft is expanded to increase atmospheric drag. Although this method works without requiring fuel, it has the disadvantage of a high risk of collision with other debris owing to its larger area. Area-time product and energy-to-mass ratio have been used as indices to evaluate the risk of collisions between spacecraft and debris. However, the evaluation criteria were uncertain because these two indices are independent. In this paper, we propose a new evaluation index, single-sheet collision factor (SSCF), that comprehensively evaluates the collision risk based on experiments simulating debris collisions. As a result of the hypervelocity collision experiment, we found that the penetration-area mass of the spacecraft affects the severity of debris collisions. In this paper, the product of the exterior-wall thickness, the exterior-wall density, and the space debris cross-sectional area defines the penetration-area mass of the spacecraft. Furthermore, we compare and evaluate various deorbit methods using SSCF. The comparison showed that the penetration-area mass of the SSCF could be quantitatively determined for the debris-collision severity due to difference in structural materials of spacecraft. SSCF will be used to create rules for space-environment conservation with the expansion of the space-development market.     

企业技术创新绩效考核评价体系构建特性分析

评价指标的设立是创新绩效考核体系的核心问题。在对企业技术创新绩效考核评价体系特性进行系统分析的基础上,首次提出创新系统的绩效考核评价可以分解为对创新输入、创新输出以及创新能力三个方面的评价,并通过对创新流程的分析,分别提出了由这三个方面指标组成的创新绩效考核评价指标,对科学合理地建立精炼、完备的创新评价指标的方法进行了探讨。     

一种与样本信息合理匹配的可靠性模型

针对随机变量具有一定的积累而又不足以确定概率分布的情况,提出了一 种新的基于分段均匀描述的可靠性模型。该模型在积累数据构成的各个子区间上,采用区间 不确定性情况下的非概率模型求得相应的非概率可靠性指标,并依据每个子区间内均匀分布 假设下非概率可靠性指标与概率可靠度的关系,求得每个子区间内无频率信息情况下基于均 匀分布描述变量不确定性时的概率可靠度。由于每个子区间在所积累的数据中出现的可能性 相等,因此可将每个子区间内的概率可靠度进行平均来得到结构的可靠度。与非概率可靠性 模型只利用了积累数据的最大值和最小值情况相比,此方法可以充分利用积累数据中包含 的不确定性信息,避免了非概率模型描述时过于保守的结果。与概率模型相比,本文方法利 用积累数据自然形成的子区间上的均匀分布描述,避免了关于分布的强假设以及分布参数估 计在小样本情况下的较大误差。算例表明,所提模型是一种介于概率与非概率可靠性模型之 间的合理方法,它可以与样本信息较好地匹配,从而合理地度量结构的安全程度。
     

基于可靠性指标的测试系统校准周期优化

通过对测试系统校准周期的直接反应法(SRM)和威布尔(Weibull)可靠性模型法的分析、改进,以及对校准过程中误判率的分析测算,解决了测试系统检定决策的风险问题.首先介绍了测试系统可靠性指标的相关计量技术规范,然后通过对常用的校准周期确定方法的介绍与分析,进一步给出了测量可靠性观测值的可靠性概率函数描述方法,并利用主元分析法来综合评价不同测量参数的影响,修正了最佳校准周期的计算.通过对自动测试系统DMM(数字万用表)测量通道的检定,表明这些优化措施是可行的.      

基于机电阻抗方法的连接接头螺钉松动损伤识别研究

飞机在飞行过程中,机翼蒙皮的螺钉在反复载荷的作用下会发生松动、甚至脱落损伤,对飞机的飞行安全埋下隐患。及时发现此类损伤并采取有效措施可以提高飞机的安全性。针对此类损伤,设计了硬铝合金板连接接头的螺钉松动损伤模式,应用机电阻抗的试验方法对其进行了识别研究。试验结果表明：当选择恰当的频率范围时,随着螺钉松动损伤程度的增加,压电片与结构组成系统的RMSD（Root Mean Square Deviation）指标增加,两者表现出单调函数关系,应用RMSD损伤指标可以识别螺钉松动损伤程度,且对小的损伤更加敏感。