基于POD曲线的预警机雷达检飞概率模型

针对预警机雷达检飞试验中距离取样间隔及检飞航线边界条件的确定问题,以保证发现概率(POD)曲线的覆盖率与精确性为目标,提出基于POD曲线的预警机雷达检飞概率模型.首先,根据POD曲线的覆盖率和精确性要求确定检飞试验拟合曲线所需的采样点数.然后,根据POD曲线的经验分布函数建立检飞试验中最小探测距离和最大探测距离的计算方法,并由此确定检飞航线上距离取样间隔的长度.最后,根据发现概率的统计特性得到距离取样间隔内采样点数以及航次数等试验参数,为雷达检飞试验设计与预警性能评定提供定量依据.      

Towards intelligent design optimization: Progress and challenge of design optimization theories and technologies for plastic forming

Plastic forming is one of enabling and fundamental technologies in advanced manufacturing chains. Design optimization is a critical way to improve the performance of the forming system, exploit the advantages of high productivity, high product quality, low production cost and short time to market and develop precise, accurate, green, and intelligent (smart) plastic forming technology. However, plastic forming is quite complicated, relating to multi-physics field coupling, multi-factor influence, multi-defect constraint, and triple nonlinear, etc., and the design optimization for plastic forming involves multi-objective, multi-parameter, multi-constraint, nonlinear, high-dimensionality, non-continuity, time-varying, and uncertainty, etc. Therefore, how to achieve accurate and efficient design optimization of products, equipment, tools/dies, and processing as well as materials characterization has always been the research frontier and focus in the field of engineering and manufacturing. In recent years, with the rapid development of computing science, data science and internet of things (IoT), the theories and technologies of design optimization have attracted more and more attention, and developed rapidly in forming process. Accordingly, this paper first introduced the framework of design optimization for plastic forming. Then, focusing on the key problems of design optimization, such as numerical model and optimization algorithm, this paper summarized the research progress on the development and application of the theories and technologies about design optimization in forming process, including deterministic and uncertain optimization. Moreover, the applicability of various modeling methods and optimization algorithms was elaborated in solving the design optimization problems of plastic forming. Finally, considering the development trends of forming technology, this paper discusses some challenges of design optimization that may need to be solved and faced in forming process.     

航天器单层板结构弹道极限的支持向量机预测模型

提出了一种基于非线性不可分支持向量机（SVM）方法的航天器单层板结构弹道极限预测模型。利用实验数据对SVM进行训练,建立穿透点和未穿透点的分隔面,进而预测新结构弹道极限特性。SVM的训练问题是以实验点分类正确性为约束,预测置信度最大化为目标的二次规划问题,用Lagrange对偶方法有效求解了该训练问题,并通过附加Lagrange乘子的上限约束处理不可分数据集。引入二次核函数将线性SVM推广到非线性,有效实现了实验点的分类。利用超高速碰撞实验数据对SVM弹道极限预测模型进行了验证,计算对比表明SVM方法有效预测了弹道极限,并且精度高于NASA JSC单层板弹道极限方程。对分离面方程分离变量,建立了基于SVM的弹道极限方程显式表达式。     

铝合金薄板零件橡皮囊成形屈曲分析与实验

为了抑制铝合金薄板类零件在橡皮囊成形后出现屈曲的缺陷,采用薄板屈曲微分方程对零件成形后的屈曲进行理论分析,并通过橡皮囊成形实验研究自然时效时间和成形压力对屈曲缺陷的影响。理论分析结果表明：零件法兰屈曲波数与其内外径比有关,通过改变法兰宽度进行实验验证,实验结果与理论分析结果相符;而成形实验结果表明,屈曲缺陷高度随板料自然时效时间的增加而增加,随成形压力的增加而减少。因此,理论分析结果有效,并且可通过减少淬火后成形时间和增加成形压力来抑制屈曲缺陷。     

蜂窝夹层板超高速撞击极限方程分析

为分析撞击极限方程对蜂窝夹层结构的穿透特性的预测能力,调研得到了3类撞击极限方程的表达形式和等效方法,以及131个采用碳纤维复合材料(CFRP)面板的蜂窝夹层板结构的试验数据,并对撞击极限方程的预测能力进行了比较计算。结果发现,MET方程对他源数据的四种(未失效、失效、总体以及安全)预测率均大于80%,进行在轨航天器结构的失效分析时可优先选用;SRL方程对本源数据的安全预测率达到了100%,在他源数据上的安全预测率也很高,适用于航天器防护结构设计。探讨了撞击极限方程中的系数、速度分界值的优化思路,以提高撞击极限方程的预测率。     

样本重复使用失效响应曲线分析结构可靠度方法

用基于样本重复使用失效响应曲线逼近法,为充分利用迭代过程中的样本点,提出了样本重复使用的思想,并由此发展出一种结构可靠度的计算方法.利用可靠度指标作为收敛条件,从迭代收敛后的所有样本点中选取靠近失效界线处的样本点构造失效曲线响应函数,最后通过蒙特卡洛抽样的方法计算可靠度.多个算例表明:该响应函数避免了对传统意义上的功能函数响应面的模拟,降低了模型维数,又由于适当地 引入了带交叉项、具有曲线旋转功能的响应函数,因此能够很好地逼近失效曲线,有效地提高可靠度计算精度.      

基于浴盆曲线故障率函数的FFOP预计方法

与传统可靠性指标中假设产品的随机失效不可避免不同,无故障工作期(FFOP)内产品不会发生任何故障(即零故障)。首先阐述了FFOP的概念内涵、与平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)的区别和联系,提出了一种FFOP的预计方法。该方法假设产品的故障率函数具有浴盆曲线特征、故障发生过程为泊松过程、产品具有固定的免维修工作期。然后以一种改进的Weibull分布函数描述具有浴盆曲线函数特征产品的故障率。基于泊松过程理论,给出了FFOP的预计算法、流程和仿真验证手段。最后以某型无人机舵机为案例对研究方法的可用性进行了验证。结果表明:FFOP与免维修工作期(MFOP)、置信度水平密切相关,及时维修的产品能够保证较长的FFOP。在工程应用时,FFOP的确定应综合考虑运行维护费用进行权衡。     

Attitude Control Considering Variable Input Saturation Limit for a Spacecraft Equipped with Flywheels

A new attitude controller is proposed for spacecraft whose actuator has variable input saturation limit. There are three identical flywheels orthogonally mounted on board. Each rotor is driven by a brushless DC motor (BLDCM). Models of spacecraft attitude dynamics and flywheel rotor driving motor electromechanics are discussed in detail. The controller design is similar to saturation limit linear assignment. An auxiliary parameter and a boundary coefficient are imported into the controller to guarantee system stability and improve control performance. A time-varying and state-dependent flywheel output torque saturation limit model is established. Stability of the closed-loop control system and asymptotic convergence of system states are proved via Lyapunov methods and LaSalle invariance principle. Boundedness of the auxiliary parameter ensures that the control objective can be achieved, while the boundary parameter’s value makes a balance between system control performance and flywheel utilization efficiency. Compared with existing controllers, the newly developed controller with variable torque saturation limit can bring smoother control and faster system response. Numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of the controller.     

细节疲劳额定强度计算参量取值敏感性研究

 现代民机设计中细节疲劳额定强度(DFR)方法占据重要地位。为了研究DFR方法中的参数敏感性问题,针对典型航空材料讨论了在斜度参数和分散性参数两种参数的变化范围内,直接采用波音设计许用值进行DFR计算可能造成的误差水平,并与简单的扰动分析结果进行了对比;推导了基于Gerber方程计算DFR值的新公式,并对其适用性进行了对比分析。结果表明,在上述计算参量中斜度参数对国产材料DFR计算结果影响最敏感;锻铝等延性材料更适于使用基于Gerber方程的DFR公式。     

基于复合疲劳试验的涡轮叶片振动应力反推法

提出了一种利用复合疲劳试验和外场故障数据反推涡轮叶片实际振动应力的方法.该方法针对与故障叶片同批次的叶片,开展数个振动应力水平下的单件试验和某一特定振动应力水平下的成组试验,利用极大似然法推导出叶片的概率-应力-寿命曲线(P-S-N);最后基于99.87%存活率下的概率-应力-寿命曲(P_99.87%-S-N),结合叶片的外场故障统计结果,反推出叶片实际工作中振动应力的范围和可能的最大振动应力.