面向空中目标威胁评估的多传感器管理方法

为了降低在空中目标威胁评估任务中由于威胁评估结果的不准确性和传感器辐射所带来的潜在损失,提出了一种基于风险的多传感器管理方法。首先,基于部分可观马尔可夫决策过程建立了传感器管理模型;然后,给出了基于信息状态的威胁评估风险和传感器辐射风险的预测方法以量化潜在损失;接着,为获得更优的作战收益,以多步风险预测值为决策依据,以两种风险的加权和最小为优化目标建立了长期目标函数;最后,在求解目标函数时,将传感器管理问题转化为决策树搜索,设计了一种基于分支定界的标准代价搜索算法以快速获得高质量的管理方案。仿真实验表明,所提算法能够在搜索到高质量解的同时大幅减少计算时间和内存消耗;所提方法能够对风险进行准确预测,且相比于经典的传感器管理方法,所提方法具有更好的风险控制效果。     

某航天器输氢管道系统结构完整性评估

为保障某航天器在服役年限内不发生事故,针对航天器上采用插入焊接技术的精密管道系统进行结构完整性评估。在考虑到系统存在整圈的环形未焊透缺陷基础上,结合工程实践,假设在焊接区域存在更危险的平面缺陷。首先,开展高压气相热充氢试验下的标准拉伸和三点弯试验得到管道系统材料"J-75"在临氢环境下应力应变曲线和断裂韧性。其次,采用有限元程序计算系统在内压、惯性载荷与离面位移作用下的应力分布,考虑到间隙配合中的不确定性,改变模型中的最大间隙多次模拟计算,发现最大应力位置基本不变,以此区域作为假想缺陷的具体萌生区域。最后,采用失效评估图（FAD）方法对存在4种缺陷模式的系统分别进行结构完整性评估。通过引入安全裕度的概念,发现系统在含有初始尺寸（0.15 mm）的4种平面缺陷时,均处于安全状态,并且安全裕度都在2倍以上;通过工程临界分析（ECA）发现随着缺陷尺寸的增大,系统中含有缺陷2（位于管道焊接区域最大应力处的轴对称平面且沿焊深方向扩展的缺陷）时最为危险,且当缺陷深度超过0.61 mm时将断裂失效;考虑到测试数据的弥散性,针对系统最危险的模式,以安全裕度为可靠性指标,将失效评估图方法与可靠性评价相结合,得到系统在含有尺寸为0.15 mm的缺陷2情况下保有足够安全裕度的可靠性下限值超过0.999 5。     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.     

时间触发CAN总线实时性分析及评估方法

针对目前时间触发控制器局域网(CAN,Controller Area Network)总线缺乏统一评估方法的现状,提出了一套系统建立与评估方案.采用均匀装载算法建立系统调度矩阵,实现了周期信息的实时传输.结合CAN总线的传输机制与时间触发的特点,改进了时间触发系统中非周期信息最坏延迟的计算方法.在此基础上针对不满足系统实时性要求的信息提出了计算其失效概率的方法,建立了时间触发CAN总线系统的设计与评估流程,提出了系统参数调整方案.评估方案能够提高设计效率,利用信息失效概率以及最坏延迟对系统实时性进行分析,使分析结果更加精确、实用.     

基于接触状态分析的叶冠阻尼评估与改进设计

采用基于接触状态分析的干摩擦阻尼结构设计方法,针对某型带冠涡轮叶片进行了阻尼评估与改进设计.接触状态包括接触形式和接触参数,通过接触形式从结构上判断结构设计的合理性;通过接触参数从力学性能上评价叶冠的阻尼效果.对叶片的动力特性、接触状态和振动响应进行综合评估分析,找出叶冠结构设计不足之处,并指出具体的改进措施,使叶冠的接触状态及振动响应得到一定的改善,并找到叶冠弦宽稳定工作范围.接触状态能够细致反映出叶冠工作状态下真实的接触情况,为叶冠结构设计和阻尼效果判定提供了更准确、详尽的参考依据.     

低速溅射小行星表面采样的动力学仿真

开发了适用于小行星环境的大规模三维离散元程序DEMBody,针对低速射弹溅射表层风化层的小行星采样方案,仿真了相同质量不同形状的射弹在微重力环境下垂直射入颗粒床的过程,研究了溅射物质在采样器中的运动历程及最终收集质量与射弹形状的关系。结果表明,90°锥形射弹的采样效率最高。     

月球着陆器着陆腿非线性有限元建模与仿真

为了准确地预测着陆冲击过程中着陆腿的载荷缓冲和吸能性能用于指导着陆缓冲机构的设计和优化,采用非线性有限元方法进行着陆冲击动力学仿真.建立了单腿着陆冲击有限元模型,采用ABAQUS/Explicit显式动力学程序作为求解器.为提高计算效率,采用了质量缩放技术.对2个单腿着陆冲击工况进行了动力学仿真分析,通过与试验数据的对比证明了分析结果的正确性.分析结果表明:非线性有限元模型可以综合考虑各种非线性因素的影响,能较准确地预测着陆腿着陆缓冲性能;着陆腿的弹性对套筒间的摩擦力有较大的影响,增大着陆腿刚度可以减小摩擦力.     

Finite element reconstruction approach for on-orbit spacecraft breakup dynamics simulation and fragment analysis

Breakup model is the key area of space debris environment modeling. NASA standard breakup model is currently the most widely used for general-purpose. It is a statistical model found based on space surveillance data and a few ground-based test data. NASA model takes the mass, impact velocity magnitude for input and provides the fragment size, area-to-mass ratio, velocity magnitude distributions for output. A more precise approach for spacecraft disintegration fragment analysis is presented in this paper. This approach is based on hypervelocity impact dynamics and takes the shape, material, internal structure and impact location etc. of spacecraft and impactor, which might greatly affect the fragment distribution, into consideration. The approach is a combination of finite element and particle methods, entitled finite element reconstruction (FER). By reconstructing elements from the particle debris cloud, reliable individual fragments are identified. Fragment distribution is generated with undirected graph conversion and connected component analysis. Ground-based test from literature is introduced for verification. In the simulation satellite targets and impactors are modeled in detail including the shape, material, internal structure and so on. FER output includes the total number of fragments and the mass, size and velocity vector of each fragment. The reported fragment distribution of FER shows good agreement with the test, and has good accuracy for small fragments.     

飞机环境控制系统的模糊控制研究

地面实验表明,采用传统PID(Proportional-Integral-Differential)控制方法的飞机环境控制系统不能很好的解决电子设备和座舱的温度控制问题.采用了基于遗传算法优化的模糊控制方法,根据系统不同的工作任务,分别采用了2种模糊控制规则.通过优化输入输出变量的隶属度函数参数,使得新的模糊控制系统具有响应快、超调小、稳态精度高的特点.仿真表明,该模糊控制系统优于原系统并且能够满足飞机环境控制系统的设计要求.      

Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.