Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Essential features of long-term changes of areas and diameters of sunspot groups in solar activity cycles 12–24

We analyze the Greenwich catalog data on areas of sunspot groups of last thirteen solar cycles. Various parameters of sunspots are considered, namely: average monthly smoothed areas, maximum area for each year and equivalent diameters of groups of sunspots. The first parameter shows an exceptional power of the 19th cycle of solar activity, which appears here more contrastively than in the numbers of spots (that is, in Wolf’s numbers). It was found that in the maximum areas of sunspot groups for a year there is a unique phenomenon: a short and high jump in the 18th cycle (in 1946–1947) that has no analogues in other cycles. We also studied the integral distributions for equivalent diameters and found the following: (a) the average value of the index of power-law approximation is 5.4 for the last 13 cycles and (b) there is reliable evidence of Hale's double cycle (about 44?years). Since this indicator reflects the dispersion of sunspot group diameters, the results obtained show that the convective zone of the Sun generates embryos of active regions in different statistical regimes which change with a cycle of about 44?years.     

基于贝叶斯网络的要地防空目标威胁评估模型

目标威胁评估是要地防空作战决策的重要组成部分。文章对要地防空的目标威胁评估进行了研究,将目标威胁意图引入目标威胁评估,在对要地防空目标威胁评估要素进行分析的基础上,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的目标威胁评估模型;针对要地防空的实际情况,在求得目标对各要地(阵地)的威胁度的基础上,建立考虑各要地(阵地)不同价值的要地防空目标威胁综合评估模型,满足实际作战需要,为武器目标分配提供了依据。     

天气影响下的空中交通系统容量评估综述

回顾了空中交通系统容量评估的基本方法,随后以恶劣天气为背景,介绍了空中交通系统不同组成单元中容量研究的对象与方法.分析表明现有研究存在缺乏容量短周期评估方法、容量定义多样化、忽略管制员负荷等问题,并提出了后续研究的思路.     

变化风场对舰载飞机着舰安全性影响

建立了复杂环境下舰载机进舰着舰的数学仿真模型,并通过大量的仿真计算,研究了舰尾流和侧风风场对舰载机进舰着舰安全性的影响,给出了一定进舰条件下舰载机所能抗御的最大侧风强度.研究结果表明,舰载机在进舰过程中必须通过驾驶员操纵抑制舰尾流扰动,否则将引起较大的着舰偏差,影响着舰安全;对于一定的进舰初始条件,舰载机只能抗御一定强度的侧风,超出允许侧风强度时舰载机将不能成功着舰.     

RBCC发动机初步设计CAD系统研究

研究了一种用于火箭基组合循环发动机(RBCC)初步设计与方案分析的CAD系统。分析并解决了发动机几何特征参数提取、性能分析模型、设计计算集成、三维图形造型与显示等关键技术。基于AC IS几何造型内核软件,搭建了火箭基组合循环发动机初步设计的CAD平台,并利用该平台进行了算例分析。结果表明,该CAD平台能有效地进行火箭基组合循环发动机的设计与分析,实现了设计、计算一体化,为此类发动机实验器的设计提供了技术支持。     

火箭/冲压组合发动机工作特性分析

为分析火箭/冲压组合发动机在不同工作模态下的工作特性,对其在没有二次补燃情况下的内流场进行了数值模拟和分析,结果表明:(1)在火箭引射模态,火箭发动机应尽可能工作在其设计状态;(2)为有利于掺混燃烧,在较低的高度、较高的速度下由引射模态转换到亚燃冲压模态可能比较好;(3)在亚燃冲压模态,火箭发动机以某种低工况工作对冲压发动机的点火和火焰稳定是极为有利的;(4)在纯火箭模态,进气道关闭与否对组合发动机的整体性能几乎没有影响;为了获得较高的性能,二次喷管应采用扩张通道。     

Theoretical investigation on water/metal fuel ramjet motor-thermodynamic cycle and thermodynamic calculation

For achieving high-speed requirement of underwater vehicle,a conceptual engine,which utilizes the hydroreactive characteristic of several metals under supercavitation environment,has been put forward. Especially,in order to obtain specific impulse as great as possible,a dual water injection system is taken into account. Then thermodynamic cycle model,which lead the improvement of power plant and energy system,is introduced in detail,and thermal efficiency is also analyzed. Furthermore,for investigating the performance of this kind of engine system,detailed thermodynamic calculation and analysis are achieved. Especially,regarding hydroreactive metal fuel Mg/AP/HTPB as our target fuel-rich propellant,considering its obvious deficient oxygen property and the energy property of magnesium/water reaction,theoretical calculation method is established by integrating chemical non-equilibrium with chemical equilibrium. Accordingly,low limit of primary water/fuel ratio is determined. In addition,the qualitative and quantitative relationship of performance parameters,such as theoretical specific impulse,nozzle exit temperature,characteristic velocity,etc.,versus water/fuel ratio is investigated respectively.      

基于奇偶方程的FADS传感器故障检测方法

重复使用运载器（RLV）的嵌入式大气数据传感系统（FADS）中传感器的高可靠性是RLV飞行控制系统高可靠性的保障。结合FADS采用多个测压点冗余配置的特点,利用各传感器测量值之间存在的解析冗余关系,设计奇偶方程,实现对各个测压点故障传感器的有效检测。     

装备全寿命期风险评估方法综述

文章针对装备全寿命周期风险的特点,对装备全寿命周期风险识别与评估的方法进行了归纳,并具体到装备全寿命周期各阶段,对风险识别方法进行了总结,对装备全寿命周期风险评估的主要方法进行了简单介绍和适用性比较,指出未来风险评估方法的发展趋势,认为综合集成的评估方法可以成为装备全寿命周期风险评估方法研究的一个方向。