复杂可修系统可信度建模中任务维修度计算的统计推断方法

在设定每一部件的致命性故障率为常数并在确定出各部件任务修复时间置信上限的基础上,通过对可能发生的多次致命性故障事件的概率状态描述,得到了部件故障率与系统可信度的定量关系,进而依据这一可信度的建模原理归纳出不考虑任务修复时间的具体分布类型时复杂可修串联系统可信度的计算方法,同时也给出了任务维修度的统计推断表达式;最后,以典型的 ４ 部件串联可修系统为例,探讨了致命性故障次数、允许任务修复时间、部件任务修复时间的不同置信上限等的变化对系统可信度的影响,并论证了系统可靠性、维修性和保障性与可信度的关系。     

The Composition of the Solar Wind in Polar Coronal Holes

The solar wind charge state and elemental compositions have been measured with the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometers (SWICS) on Ulysses and ACE for a combined period of about 25 years. This most extensive data set includes all varieties of solar wind flows and extends over more than one solar cycle. With SWICS the abundances of all charge states of He, C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, Ar and Fe can be reliably determined (when averaged over sufficiently long time periods) under any solar wind flow conditions. Here we report on results of our detailed analysis of the elemental composition and ionization states of the most unbiased solar wind from the polar coronal holes during solar minimum in 1994–1996, which includes new values for the abundance S, Ca and Ar and a more accurate determination of the ²⁰Ne abundance. We find that in the solar minimum polar coronal hole solar wind the average freezing-in temperature is ∼1.1×10⁶ K, increasing slightly with the mass of the ion. Using an extrapolation method we derive photospheric abundances from solar wind composition measurements. We suggest that our solar-wind-derived values should be used for the photospheric ratios of Ne/Fe=1.26±0.28 and Ar/Fe=0.030±0.007.     

Johannes Geiss’ Investigations of Solar, Heliospheric and Interstellar Matter

Johannes Geiss is a world leader and foremost expert on measurements and interpretation of the composition of matter that reveals the history, present state, and future of astronomical objects. With his Swiss team he was first to measure the composition of the noble gases in the solar wind when in the late 1960s he flew the brilliant solar wind collecting foil experiments on the five Apollo missions to the moon. Always at the forefront of the art of composition measurements, he with his colleagues determined the isotopic and elemental composition of the solar wind using instruments characterized by innovative design that have provided the most comprehensive record of the solar wind composition under all solar wind conditions at all helio-latitudes. He discovered heavy interstellar pickup ions, from which the composition of the neutral gas of the Local Interstellar Cloud is determined, and the “Inner Source” of pickup ions. Johannes Geiss played a key role both in the in-situ measurements and modeling of molecular ions in comets, and the interpretation of these data. He and co-workers measured the composition of plasmas in the magnetospheres of Earth and Jupiter. Here we highlight Johannes Geiss’ many discoveries and seminal contributions to our knowledge of the composition of matter of the Sun, solar wind, interstellar gas, early universe, comets and magnetospheres.     

An Update on Ultra-Heavy Elements in Solar Energetic Particles above 10 MeV/Nucleon

Measurements below several MeV/nucleon from Wind/LEMT and ACE/ULEIS show that elements heavier than Zn (Z=30) can be enhanced by factors of ∼100 to 1000, depending on species, in ³He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Using the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) on ACE we find that even large SEP (LSEP) shock-accelerated events at energies from ∼10 to >100 MeV/nucleon are often very iron rich and might contain admixtures of flare seed material. Studies of ultra-heavy (UH) SEPs (with Z>30) above 10 MeV/nucleon can be used to test models of acceleration and abundance enhancements in both LSEP and ³He-rich events. We find that the long-term average composition for elements from Z=30 to 40 is similar to standard solar system values, but there is considerable event-to-event variability. Although most of the UH fluence arrives during LSEP events, UH abundances are relatively more enhanced in ³He-rich events, with the (34<Z<40)/O ratio on average more than 50 times higher in ³He-rich events than in LSEP events. At energies >10 MeV/nucleon, the most extreme event in terms of UH composition detected so far took place on 23 July 2004 and had a (34<Z<40)/O enhancement of ∼250–300 times the standard solar value.     

Long-Term Fluences of Solar Energetic Particles from H to Fe

Data from ACE and GOES have been used to measure Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) fluence spectra for H, He, O, and Fe, over the period from October 1997 to December 2005. The measurements were made by four instruments on ACE and the EPS sensor on three GOES satellites and extend in energy from ∼0.1 MeV/nuc to ∼100 MeV/nuc. Fluence spectra for each species were fit by conventional forms and used to investigate how the intensities, composition, and spectral shapes vary from year to year.     

The Surface of Mercury as Seen by Mariner 10

The Mariner 10 spacecraft made three flyby passes of Mercury in 1974 and 1975. It imaged a little less than half of the surface and discovered Mercury had an intrinsic magnetic field. This paper briefly describes the surface of Mercury as seen by Mariner 10 as a backdrop to the discoveries made since then by ground-based observations and the optimistic anticipation of new discoveries by MESSENGER and BepiColombo spacecraft that are scheduled for encounter in the next decade.     

Are Boltzmann plots of hydrogen Balmer lines a tool for identifying a subclass of S1 AGN?

It is becoming clear that we can define two different types of nearby AGN belonging to the Seyfert 1 class (S1), on the basis of the match of the intensities of their Broad Balmer Lines (BBL) with the Boltzmann Plots (BP). These two types of S1 galaxies, that we call BP-S1 and NoBP-S1, are characterized, in first approximation, by Broad Line Regions (BLR) with different structural and physical properties. In this communication, we show that these features can be well pointed out by a multi-wavelength analysis of the continuum and of the broad recombination Hydrogen lines, that we carry out on a sample of objects detected at optical and X-ray frequencies. The investigation is addressed to verify whether BP-S1 are the ideal candidates for the study of the kinematical and structural properties of the BLR, in order to derive reliable estimates of the mass of their central engine and to constrain the properties of their nuclear continuum spectrum.     

Statistical study of electrostatic solitary waves associated with reconnection: Geotail observations

The role of waves in the dynamics of the magnetotail has long been a topic of interest in magnetospheric physics. The characteristics of Electrostatic Solitary Waves (ESWs) associated with reconnection have been studied statistically in the magnetotail by surveying the large amounts data obtained from Waveform Capture (WFC) which is an important component of Plasma Wave Instrument (PWI) on the Geotail spacecraft. About 150 reconnection events with WFC data available are selected, and approximately 10 thousands of ESW waveforms are picked up by hands for statistical study. The ESWs are observed near diffusion region and near the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). Two kinds of waveforms of ESWs are observed: bi-polar and tri-polar pulses. It is found that the pulse width of the ESWs is in the order of 1–5 ms and the peak-to-peak amplitude is in the order of 0.1–5 mV/m. The amplitudes of ESWs are larger in the near-earth tail region than that in deep tail region. ESWs have been observed with or without guide magnetic field 〈By〉. The characteristics of ESWs in different reconnection region and under different strength of guild magnetic field, their possible generation mechanism will be discussed.     

深空天文测角测速组合自主导航可观测性分析方法

导航系统的性能与其可观测性密切相关,而可观测矩阵是分析导航系统可观测性能的重要依据。本文基于分段线性定常系统(PWCS)方法给出导航系统的可观测矩阵,进而针对测角测速组合导航系统开展可观测性分析。通过分析测角测速组合导航系统可观测矩阵的秩和条件数,得到导航系统的可观测性和整体可观测度,并研究导航系统的可观测阶数对导航系统的影响;同时基于奇异值分解(SVD)方法给出测角测速组合导航系统各个状态分量的可观测性分析方法。最后,以小行星探测工程任务巡航段为背景,系统地给出了不同量测模型的导航系统可观测性结果,分析了不同可观测性分析方法对导航系统可观测性刻画的适用性。本文所提出的可观测性分析方法,对导航系统可观测性分析具有很好的参考性,可为组合导航系统量测模型的优选提供参考,具有良好的理论和应用价值。     

The dynamic chromosphere: Pushing the boundaries of observations and models

The interface between the bright solar surface and the million-degree corona continues to hold the key to many unsolved problems in solar physics. Advances in instrumentation now allow us to observe the dynamic structures of the solar chromosphere down to less than $0_{.}^{″}1$ with cadences of just a few seconds and in multiple polarisation states. Such observational progress has been matched by the ever-increasing sophistication of numerical models, which have become necessary to interpret the complex observations. With an emphasis on the quiet Sun, I will review recent progress in the observation and modelling of the chromosphere. Models have come a long way from 1D static atmospheres, but their predictions still fail to reproduce several key observed features. Nevertheless, they have given us invaluable insight into the physical processes that energise the atmosphere. With more physics being added to models, the gap between predictions and observations is narrowing. With the next generation of solar observatories just around the corner, the big question is: will they close the gap?