基于Volterra级数的非定常气动力降阶模型

为了满足气动伺服弹性分析与综合的需要,优化了一种基于Volterra级数的非线性非定常气动力降阶模型。通过CFD技术计算出的广义非定常气动力阶跃响应辨识出Volterra核,应用特征系统实现算法建立非定常气动力的状态空间模型,并将该模型应用于气动弹性计算。用气动弹性标准模型AGARD 445.6机翼对该降阶模型做了验证,结果表明这种方法可以快速准确地求解气动弹性问题。     

Land use/land cover classification using time series Landsat 8 images in a heavily urbanized area

It is of great significance to timely, accurately, and effectively monitor land use/cover in city regions for the reasonable development and utilization of urban land resources. The remotely sensed dynamic monitoring of Land use/land cover (LULC) in rapidly developing city regions has increasingly depended on remote-sensing data at high temporal and spatial resolutions. However, due to the influence of revisiting periods and weather, it is difficult to acquire enough time-series images with high quality at both high temporal and spatial resolution from the same sensor. In this paper we used the temporal-spatial fusion model ESTARFM (Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model) to blend Landsat8 and MODIS data and obtain time-series Landsat8 images. Then, land cover information is extracted using an object-based classification method. In this study, the proposed method is validated by a case study of the Changsha City. The results show that the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient were 94.38% and 0.88, respectively, and the user/producer accuracies of vegetation types were all over 85%. Our approach provides an accurate and efficient technical method for the effective extraction of land use/cover information in the highly heterogeneous regions.     

Time series modeling and analysis of trends of daily averaged ionospheric total electron content

A 10.7 cm solar radio flux F10.7, geomagnetic planetary equivalent amplitude (Ap index), and period variations were considered in this paper to construct a linear model for daily averaged ionospheric total electron content (TEC). The correlation coefficient of the modeled results and International GNSS Service (IGS) observables was approximately 0.97, which implied that the model could accurately reflect the realistic variation characteristics of the daily averaged TEC. The influences of the different factors on TEC and its characteristics at different latitudes were examined with this model. Results show that solar activity, annual and semiannual cycles are the three most important factors that affect daily averaged TEC. Solar activity is the primary determinant of TEC during periods with high solar activity, whereas periodic factors primarily contribute to TEC during periods with minimum solar activity. The extent of the influences of the different factors on TEC exhibits obvious differences at varying latitudes. The magnitude of the semiannual variation becomes less significant with the increase in latitude. Furthermore, a geomagnetic storm causes an increase in TEC at low latitudes and a decrease at high latitudes.     

航材消耗的时间序列分析

本文采用时间序列分析法对某种航材故障率进行预测,用移动平均法消除时间序列的长期趋势和周期变动,然后按月平均法求出季节指数,并对季节指数进行调整,然后根据拟合的趋势方程对此种航材的故障率进行预测.其结果能为航材的可靠性保障提供理论依据.     

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A_p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A_p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.     

基于相关系数AR模型的陀螺随机漂移分析方法

陀螺漂移序列的均值和方差随时间不断变化,不属于传统的相关函数平稳序列,因此采用传统的平稳序列分析方法对其处理必然导致较大的误差．通过对大量陀螺漂移数据分析发现,大多数陀螺漂移序列的相关系数并不随时问的平移而变化,是时间间隔的单变量函数,因此,它们属于相关系数平稳序列．在此基础上,建立了基于相关系数AR模型的陀螺漂移分析方法．该方法首先对陀螺漂移数据是否属于相关系数平稳序列进行判别,然后采用相关系数AR模型建模并给出模型参数的估计方法,最后可根据得到的相关系数AR模型对陀螺漂移进行估计和补偿．由于相关系数平稳序列能够对陀螺漂移序列的本质特征进行描述,因此较传统方法具有更高的建模精度和补偿精度．     

基于贯序正则极端学习机的时间序列预测及其应用

为实现对液压泵特征参数的在线预测,提出一种贯序正则极端学习机(SRELM),并研究了基于SRELM的预测方法.SRELM根据结构风险最小化原理实现网络训练,其网络权值可随新样本的逐次加入而递推求解,具有泛化能力强与训练速度快的优点,因此适于特征参数的在线预测.基于SRELM的预测方法利用特征参数训练SRELM模型,以逐...     

传感器位置误差条件下仅用到达频率差的无源定位性能分析

传感器自身的位置误差对辐射源的无源定位精度可能有较大影响,详细分析并推导了在存在传感器位置误差条件下,仅使用到达频率差(FDOA)参数对辐射源定位时,定位精度的克拉美罗下限(CRLB)和均方误差(MSE).在传感器位置误差条件下,提出仅用FDOA来同时估计辐射源和传感器位置的泰勒级数方法,并证明该定位方法理论上的MSE...     

基于ARIMA模型的拉萨降水量时间序列分析与预测

应用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）模型对西藏拉萨地区1969年至2009年的年降水量资料进行建模分析。建立的模型通过了参数的显著性检验和模型的显著性检验。模型的实证分析表明在短期内模型具有较高的预测精度,ARIMA模型可以较好的应用于降水量的预测,对相关部门采取措施应对自然灾害提供了理论支持。     

单逆变器驱动的多相电机串联系统综述

为了实现同一逆变器(VSI)供电的多电机独立运行的问题,近年来提出了一种新颖的基于广义零序谐波分量的多相电机串联系统。文章对这种新型的单逆变器驱动多相多电机串联系统的发展需求、工作原理、国内外研究概况等方面进行了详细地阐述,深入地分析了这种驱动系统的优缺点,总结了需要深入研究的关键技术。