A study on radio-loud interacting/non-interacting CMEs-associated SEPs and solar flares

We have established a data set of 58 major hybrid SEP events associated with meter-to-decahectometer wavelength (m-to-DH) type II bursts, solar flares, and radio-load CMEs during the period of 1997–2014. The main focus of our study is to address the following two questions: Does the interaction of CMEs play a role in the enhancement of SEP intensity? Is there any difference in the seed population, and parent eruptions in the SEP events with and without CME interactions? Hence, the sample of 58 events is classified into two sets: (i) 35 non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events; (ii) 23 interacting-CME-associated SEP events. All the characteristics of SEPs, their associated CMEs/flares and the relationships between them are statistically analyzed and compared. Some of the basic attributes and relative elemental abundances (Fe/O ratios) of the both the sets are also compared. The results indicate that the seed particles in non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events are mostly from solar wind/coronal materials. But in the case of interacting-CME-associated SEP events, it may be associated with both flare material from preceding flares and coronal materials from solar wind/preceding CMEs. The correlation studies reveal that there are clear correlations between logarithmic peak intensity of SEP events and properties of CMEs (space speed: cc?=?0.56) and solar flares (peak intensity: cc?=?0.40; integrated flux: cc?=?0.52) for non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events. But these correlations are absent for the interacting-CME-associated events. In addition, the results suggest that interaction of primary CMEs with their preceding CMEs plays an important role in the enhancement of peak intensity of SEPs at least for a set of m-to-DH type II bursts associated SEP events.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

The effect of solar–geomagnetic activity during hospital admission on coronary events within 1 year in patients with acute coronary syndromes

Some evidence indicates the deterioration of the cardiovascular system during space storms. It is plausible that the space weather conditions during and after hospital admission may affect the risk of coronary events in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We analyzed the data of 1400 ACS patients who were admitted to the Hospital Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, and who survived for more than 4 days. We evaluated the associations between geomagnetic storms (GS), solar proton events (SPE), and solar flares (SF) that occurred 0–3 days before and after hospital admission and the risk of cardiovascular death (CAD), non-fatal ACS, and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during a period of 1 year; the evaluation was based on the multivariate logistic model, controlling for clinical data. After adjustment for clinical variables, GS occurring in conjunction with SF 1 day before admission increased the risk of CAD by over 2.5 times. GS 2 days after SPE occurred 1 day after admission increased the risk of CAD and CABG by over 2.8 times. The risk of CABG increased by over 2 times in patients admitted during the day of GS and 1 day after SPE. The risk of ACS was by over 1.63 times higher for patients admitted 1 day before or after solar flares.     

The solar-terrestrial event of 23 February 1956

The solar flare of 23 February 1956 and the resulting geophysical disturbance ranks as one of the most remarkable solar-terrestrial events of the twentieth century. It sparked many papers and has seldom been equalled. Fifty years after the International Geophysical Year, it seems timely to review the observations of the event from today’s perspective, and to draw on the recollections of scientists who were active at the time.     

Time step size and model stiffness in the simulated slew of a tow of square sails

In order to assess space tow solar sail stability and control feasibility, slew simulations are performed for a simplified but dynamically representative km-class tow-like sail of sixteen 25 m square units (10,000 m² total area and 110 kg gross mass) with a 250 kg payload. It is seen that, for the dimensions considered, the space tow concept is structurally sound and its control is feasible. While observed instabilities are identified as numeric in nature and are eliminated accordingly, their very occurrence highlights the need for a refinement of the model for future studies. The analyses are carried out with custom software implementing non-standard implicit-iterative time integration with innovative elements. A new damping model, specifically tailored for the analysis of truly gossamer systems such as solar sails, is also proposed.     

Topologically Characterized Movement Patterns: A Cognitive Assessment

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the role of topology as a predictor for the conceptualization of dynamically changing spatial configurations (referred to as movement patterns). We define meaningful units of movement patterns as paths through a topologically defined conceptual neighborhood graph. Topology plays a central role in formal approaches to human cognition and in predicting cognitive similarity ratings—although primarily for static spatial configurations. Formal specifications of the role of topology for characterizing movement patterns do exist, yet there is paucity of behavioral validation. To bridge this gap, we conducted an experiment based on the grouping paradigm to assess factors that underlie conceptualizations of movement patterns. The experiment was designed such that paths through the conceptual neighborhood graph were distinguished by topologically differentiated ending relations. We believe topology can make an important contribution in explaining movement conceptualizations. One recently formulated topology-based contribution is the endpoint hypothesis, asserting that a cognitive focus is placed on event ending relations. We discuss the results of our experiment in relation to previous experiments targeted toward a framework for modeling the cognitive conceptualization of dynamically changing spatial relations.     

Why should the latitude of the observer be considered when modeling gradual proton events? An insight using the concept of cobpoint

The shape of flux profiles of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events depends on several not well-understood factors, such as the strength of the associated shock, the relative position of the observer in space with respect to the traveling shock, the existence of a background seed particle population, the interplanetary conditions for particle transport, as well as the particle energy. Here, we focus on two of these factors: the influence of the shock strength and the relative position of the observer. We performed a 3D simulation of the propagation of a coronal/interplanetary CME-driven shock in the framework of ideal MHD modeling. We analyze the passage of this shock by nine spacecraft located at ∼0.4 AU (Mercury’s orbit) and at different longitudes and latitudes. We study the evolution of the plasma conditions in the shock front region magnetically connected to each spacecraft, that is the region of the shock front scanned by the “cobpoint” (Heras et al., 1995), as the shock propagates away from the Sun. Particularly, we discuss the influence of the latitude of the observer on the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles and, hence, on the resulting proton flux profiles to be detected by each spacecraft.     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的防空作战态势分析

针对战场目标战术意图变化的复杂性,尤其是战场信息的不确定性,根据态势事件与态势假设之间的潜在关系,利用动态贝叶斯网络建立态势评估的功能模型,并用实例验证方法有效性。仿真表明：功能模型能将各种特征因素进行综合,使不同时间片的特征因素相互修改,并准确地跟踪战场态势的变化,所得结果为指挥员情报决策提供了支持。     

Comparison of organ dose and dose equivalent for human phantoms of CAM vs. MAX

For the evaluation of organ dose and dose equivalent of astronauts on space shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS) missions, the CAMERA models of CAM (Computerized Anatomical Male) and CAF (Computerized Anatomical Female) of human tissue shielding have been implemented and used in radiation transport model calculations at NASA. One of new human geometry models to meet the “reference person” of International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is based on detailed Voxel (volumetric and pixel) phantom models denoted for male and female as MAX (Male Adult voXel) and FAX (Female Adult voXel), respectively. We compared the CAM model predictions of organ doses to those of MAX model, since the MAX model represents the male adult body with much higher fidelity than the CAM model currently used at NASA. Directional body-shielding mass was evaluated for over 1500 target points of MAX for specified organs considered to be sensitive to the induction of stochastic effects. Radiation exposures to solar particle event (SPE), trapped protons, and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) were assessed at the specific sites in the MAX phantom by coupling space radiation transport models with the relevant body-shielding mass. The development of multiple-point body-shielding distributions at each organ made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of organ doses at the specific organ. For the estimate of doses to the blood forming organs (BFOs), data on active marrow distributions in adult were used to weight the bone marrow sites over the human body. The discrete number of target points of MAX organs resulted in a reduced organ dose and dose equivalent compared to the results of CAM organs especially for SPE, and should be further investigated. Differences of effective doses between the two approaches were found to be small (<5%) for GCR.     

太阳光球磁场特征物理量在质子事件短期预报中的应用

利用SOHO/MDI全日面纵向磁图, 计算了三个描述太阳活动区磁场复杂性和非势性的特征物理量, 即纵向磁场最大水平梯度Bz, 强梯度中性线长度L, 孤立奇点数目η. 为检验太阳光球磁场特征在质子事件短期预报中是否有效, 采用BP神经网络方法, 建立了基于这三个磁场特征物理量简单的太阳质子事件短期(24h)预报模型. 模 型在对2002年和2003年连续两年的样本检测中, 有很高的准确率(2002年和2003年 分别为90 %, 87.54 %)和较高的 质子事件报准率(2002年和2003年分别为60 %, 75 %),从而为光球磁场特征物理量作为质子事件预报的有效因子提供了依据.