多重应力下滚动轴承剩余寿命预测

为了实现多重应力下滚动轴承的剩余寿命预测,有效利用不用应力下的退化数据,提出了一种基于加速模型和贝叶斯（Bayesian）理论的滚动轴承剩余寿命预测方法。通过拟合优度检验和威布尔（Weibull）概率图检验法对滚动轴承试验中的数据进行有效性分析。利用switching Kalman filters(SKF)判断滚动轴承各时刻的退化状态。当滚动轴承进入加速退化时,用指数模型拟合轴承退化过程,利用广义线性对数模型表示退化模型参数与应力的关系,根据修正后的轴承实时退化数据利用贝叶斯算法更新模型参数,得到滚动轴承剩余寿命的概率密度函数,从而实现滚动轴承剩余寿命预测。采用XJTU-SY轴承数据集进行验证,预测结果的均方根误差在20 min以内,证明该方法能够有效预测滚动轴承的剩余寿命。     

关于设计保证系统适航独立核查的思考

民用飞机主制造商建立设计保证系统,旨在民机研制过程中充分发挥自主适航的能力,通过组织机构、职责、程序和资源落实设计、适航以及独立监督三大职能,以保证航空产品的设计或者设计更改满足适航当局的要求。其中,设计保证系统适航职能的适航独立核查功能正是这一保证的关键。基于对设计保证系统适航独立核查功能的具体分析基础上,从设计保证系统的规划与设计层面提出了实现适航独立核查功能的机制,给出了机制中需明确的责任主体、职责与资质要求、工作流程与支撑工具以及管理程序等方面的建议,并从大数据知识的技术支撑和阶梯式递进的人才培训保障两方面以不断优化改进的方法工具与人力配置来深化适航独立核查的功能与效果,进而增强设计保证系统对飞机型号研制的保证作用。     

应力比对不锈钢焊接接头疲劳寿命的影响研究

针对0Cr18Ni9不锈钢薄板焊接接头,开展了高周疲劳性能测试,研究了应力比对其疲劳极限和疲劳寿命S-N曲线的影响。结果表明应力比对疲劳寿命有较大的影响,在最大应力一定的情况下,应力比越大其疲劳寿命越大。基于试验结果,得到了反映应力比影响的0Cr18Ni9不锈钢薄板焊接接头Goodman修正和Walker修正的高周疲劳寿命预测模型。模型的预估寿命和试验数据对比表明,Walker修正模型对疲劳寿命的预测结果全部处于1.0倍分散带以内,其更能反映应力比对0Cr18Ni9不锈钢薄板焊接接头疲劳寿命的影响。     

Conceptual design of a bioregenerative life support system containing crops and silkworms

This article summarizes a conceptual design of a bioregenerative life support system for permanent lunar base or planetary exploration. The system consists of seven compartments – higher plants cultivation, animal rearing, human habitation, water recovery, waste treatment, atmosphere management, and storages. Fifteen kinds of crops, such as wheat, rice, soybean, lettuce, and mulberry, were selected as main life support contributors to provide the crew with air, water, and vegetable food. Silkworms fed by crop leaves were designated to produce partial animal nutrition for the crew. Various physical-chemical and biological methods were combined to reclaim wastewater and solid waste. Condensate collected from atmosphere was recycled into potable water through granular activated carbon adsorption, iodine sterilization, and trace element supplementation. All grey water was also purified though multifiltration and ultraviolet sterilization. Plant residue, human excrement, silkworm feces, etc. were decomposed into inorganic substances which were finally absorbed by higher plants. Some meat, ingredients, as well as nitrogen fertilizer were prestored and resupplied periodically. Meanwhile, the same amount and chemical composition of organic waste was dumped to maintain the steady state of the system. A nutritional balanced diet was developed by means of the linear programming method. It could provide 2721 kcal of energy, 375.5 g of carbohydrate, 99.47 g of protein, and 91.19 g of fat per capita per day. Silkworm powder covered 12.54% of total animal protein intakes. The balance of material flows between compartments was described by the system of stoichiometric equations. Basic life support requirements for crews including oxygen, food, potable and hygiene water summed up to 29.68 kg per capita per day. The coefficient of system material closure reached 99.40%.     

Science operations planning expertise: A neglected component of mission design

In this paper, Science Operations Planning Expertise (SOPE) is defined as the expertise that is held by people who have the two following qualities. First they have both theoretical and practical experience in operations planning, in general, and in space science operations planning in particular. Second, they can be used, on request and at least, to provide with advice the teams that design and implement science operations systems in order to optimise the performance and productivity of the mission. However, the relevance and use of such SOPE early on during the Mission Design Phase (MDP) is not sufficiently recognised. As a result, science operations planning is often neglected or poorly assessed during the mission definition phases. This can result in mission architectures that are not optimum in terms of cost and scientific returns, particularly for missions that require a significant amount of science operations planning. Consequently, science operations planning difficulties and cost underestimations are often realised only when it is too late to design and implement the most appropriate solutions. In addition, higher costs can potentially reduce both the number of new missions and the chances of existing ones to be extended. Moreover, the quality, and subsequently efficiency, of SOPE can vary greatly. This is why we also believe that the best possible type of SOPE requires a structure similar to the ones of existing bodies of expertise dedicated to the data processing such as the International Planetary Data Alliance (IPDA), the Space Physics Archive Search and Extract (SPASE) or the Planetary Data System (PDS). Indeed, this is the only way of efficiently identifying science operations planning issues and their solutions as well as of keeping track of them in order to apply them to new missions. Therefore, this paper advocates for the need to allocate resources in order to both optimise the use of SOPE early on during the MDP and to perform, at least, a feasibility study of such a more structured SOPE.     

飞行器智能设计愿景与关键问题

未来飞行器正朝着多元化、无人化和智能化的方向发展,高超声速、超隐身和变体等新型飞行器不断涌现。而传统飞行器解耦分拆的设计方法越来越难以满足未来飞行器综合性能全面提升的要求,只有通过整体化设计才能充分发掘飞行器的潜能。通过分析传统飞行器设计中存在的问题,提出满足全生命周期要求的飞行器智能设计体系理念,利用知识库的构建将智能赋予飞行器平台系统设计、制造生产和运维这3个阶段,并通过数字孪生技术进行飞行器全生命周期的仿真、分析和预测,以对飞行器设计、运行等数据进行更新,使该体系形成闭环。就飞行器智能设计体系中需要的关键技术及涉及的科学问题等进行了讨论,并给出了未来发展方向以供参考。     

自杀现象透析

自杀是生理、心理和社会的异常.自杀作为一种特殊的社会现象,是由人类心理、家庭、社会生活、人际关系、身体与精神疾病等各种错综复杂的因素所产生的一种社会病.因此,我们的当务之急是正确地认识这一种现象,并建立起危机预防"安全网".     

人生与价值:中国现代惟科学主义文化哲学的迷失

科学进入中国人的深层生活后,中国现代知识界对于科学渐渐形成了两种对立的观念,即所称的“科学派”与“玄学派”,两派的论战已是学术史上的公案,其对阵的实质可能主要在于两派关于科学的社会批判价值的异趣。惟科学主义要求政治、经济、法律、道德、生活等社会各个方面都要经过科学的批判或改造,从而在“科学的大字标题”下建立一种新文化,然而,惟科学主义却在这种努力与论战中消失了踪影。     

屈服强度与裂纹形成寿命的关系

 一般认为材料的疲劳损伤和裂纹形成是由循环局部塑性应变引起的。因此,提高材料对微量塑性变形的抗力（为屈服强度、比例极限）,将有利于提高其疲劳形成门槛值,延长裂纹形成寿命,从而延长疲劳总寿命。然而,材料的微量塑性变形抗力对疲劳性能的影响,仍未予以足够的重视。所以在一些单位的产品设计和生产检验中,似未规定对屈服强度的明确要求。     

谱载下裂纹扩展的计算及实验分析

本文针对裂纹扩展的Willenborg-Chang模型,提出了如何合理地选择参数,怎样对残余塑性区尺寸进行修正及随机加载谱的处理。通过实验和计算结果的对比,说明上述想法的正确性,并提出Willenborg-Chang模型更适用于较长裂纹的寿命估算。