Latitudinal distribution of solar coronal active regions

We studied the cyclic evolution of the latitudinal distribution of solar coronal active regions based on daily images from SOHO EIT for the period 1995–2017. Fully automated software was used, which included the following steps: initial preparation of images in the data series, normalization of histograms and correction of limb brightening, segmentation of images using threshold intensity values obtained from their histograms, scanning of segmented images in heliographic coordinates and obtaining profiles of latitudinal distribution of coronal active regions for each image of the data series. From the output data, we obtained a temporary change in the latitudinal distribution profiles and the migration of activity centers on the solar disk. From the period of minimum activity to the next minimum in both hemispheres, activity centers begin to migrate from high latitudes towards the equator. At the same time, the general center of activity repeatedly changes the direction of migration. The latitudinal distribution of the so-called presence factor of coronal active regions closely resembles the magnetic butterfly diagram, which proves their direct causal relationships. Variations in the presence factor of coronal active regions are correlated with cyclic variations in the sunspot daily numbers.     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.     

半个太阳活动周期内我国中纬地区上空电离层等效板厚的变化特征

本文用新乡(电离层400km对下点是:32.4°N,115.6°E)、重庆(电离层400km对下点是:27.2°N,108.7°E)接收日本同步卫星ETS-Ⅱ的信标资料,研究了我国中纬地区上空半个太阳活动周期内(1981—1985)电离层等效板厚的变化特征,得到了等效板厚日变化、季变化的二维和三维等值图。由付里叶分析和回归方法得出等效板厚日变化各谐波分量与太阳黑子数12个月滑动平均值之间存在弱的线性关系。同时指出在等效板厚日变化中,于当地时0400—0700LT存在一明显的黎明峰。并对出现这种峰的原因作了讨论。      

Self-perspiration garment for extravehicular activity improves skin cooling effects without raising humidity

Introduction

The current U.S. extravehicular activity (EVA) suit in space includes liquid cooling and ventilation garment (LCVG) to control thermal condition. Tubes knitted in LCVG for flowing water interrupt evaporation of perspiration, and astronauts feel discomfort. In the present study, we hypothesized that a self-perspiration garment would effectively lower the skin temperature without raising humidity in the garment. Thus, we developed and examined the effects of the garment.

Methods

Eight healthy subjects were studied with a cyclic ergometer of 30, 60 90 and 120 W loading for 3 min each. Skin temperature and humidity on the back were measured continuously. Subjects wore and tested three types of garments i.e., a spandex wear without any cooling device (Normal), a simulated LCVG (s-LCVG) or the spandex wear knitted a vinyl tube for flowing water, and the spandex wear with a tube, which flows water and self-perspiration with oozing water for evaporative cooling (SPEC).

Results

All measurements were reached to steady state 2–3 min after the setting. The s-LCVG decreased skin temperature 0.39±0.14 °C during 12 min of cooling. With SPEC, skin temperature did not decrease significantly until 6–9 min after starting the cooling. However, the temperature decreased rapidly and significantly after that, and finally decreased 1.59±0.32 °C. Humidity in the SPEC was significantly lower than that in s-LCVG.

Discussion

SPEC was effective for lowering skin temperature without raising humidity in the garment. The concept is expected to use as a better cooling system during EVA.     

Traveling ionospheric disturbances observed at South African midlatitudes during the 29–31 October 2003 geomagnetically disturbed period

This paper presents traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) observations from GPS measurements over the South African region during the geomagnetically disturbed period of 29–31 October 2003. Two receiver arrays, which were along two distinct longitudinal sectors of about 18°-20° and 27°-28° were used in order to investigate the amplitude, periods and virtual propagation characteristics of the storm induced ionospheric disturbances. The study revealed a large sudden TEC increase on 28 October 2003, the day before the first of the two major storms studied here, that was recorded simultaneously by all the receivers used. This pre-storm enhancement was linked to an X-class solar flare, auroral/magnetospheric activities and vertical plasma drift, based on the behaviour of the geomagnetic storm and auroral indices as well as strong equatorial electrojet. Diurnal trends of the TEC and foF2 measurements revealed that the geomagnetic storm caused a negative ionospheric storm; these parameters were depleted between 29 and 31 October 2003. Large scale traveling ionospheric disturbances were observed on the days of the geomagnetic storms (29 and 31 October 2003), using line-of-sight vertical TEC (vTEC) measurements from individual satellites. Amplitude and dominant periods of these structures varied between 0.08–2.16 TECU, and 1.07–2.13 h respectively. The wave structures were observed to propagate towards the equator with velocities between 587.04 and 1635.09 m/s.     

Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component _Bz$B_z$ of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of _Bz$B_z$ with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of _Bz$B_z$ in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%.     

A comparative sporadic-E layer study between two mid-latitude ionospheric stations

Hourly systematic measurements of the highest frequency reflected by the sporadic-E layer (foEs) recorded from January 1976 to June 2009 at the ionospheric stations of Rome (Italy, 41.8°N, 12.5°E) and Gibilmanna (Italy, 37.9°N, 14.0°E) were considered to carry out a comparative study between the sporadic E layer (Es) over Rome and Gibilmanna. Different statistical analysis were performed taking into account foEs observations near the periods of minimum and maximum solar activity. The results reveal that: (1) independently from the solar activity, Es develops concurrently over extended regions in space, instead of being a spatially limited layer which is transported horizontally by neutral winds over a larger area; especially during summer months, when an Es layer is present at Rome, there is a high probability that an Es layer is also present over Gibilmanna, and vice versa; (2) Es layer lifetimes of 1–5 h were found; in particular, Es layers with lifetimes of 5 h both over Gibilmanna and Rome are observed with highest percentages of occurrence in summer ranging between 80% and 90%, independently from the solar activity; (3) latitudinal effects on Es layer occurrence emerge mostly for low solar activity during winter, equinoctial, and summer months, when Es layers are detected more frequently over Gibilmanna rather than Rome; (4) when the presence of an Es layer over Rome and Gibilmanna is not simultaneous, Es layer appearance both over Rome and Gibilmanna confirms to be a locally confined event, because drifting phenomena from Rome to Gibilmanna or vice versa have not been emphasized.     

中心等离子体片的地向对流型高速流

在GSM坐标系下, 利用TC-1卫星和Cluster/C1卫星上4s分辨率的磁场和热离子探测数据, 对中心等离子体片内的地向对流型高速流进行了统计研究(-19 Re < x< -9 Re, |y| < 10 Re, |z|< 5 Re). 统计结果表明, 地向对流型高速流会在15 Re以内出现``刹车', 在11.5 Re附近时出现``缺失'. 进一步对其速度特征进行统计分析. 结果显示, 在中心等离子体片内的高速流, 其运动方向主要为地向, 晨昏和南北方向的运动明显较弱; 在对流型高速流的地向输运过程中, 其峰值速度没有明显的下降; 在近地13 Re以内, 等离子体片内的地向对流型高速流具有较强的垂直磁力线运动速度. 这意味着对流型高速流在近地15 Re以内的“刹车”不是由高速流晨昏或南北方向的偏转造成的. 高速流在11.5 Re附近时出现的``缺失'可能与在15 Re以内出现``刹车'密切相关. TC-1卫星和Cluster卫星的观测为了解中磁尾重联高速流地向输运过程及亚暴膨胀相触发提供了重要的观测依据.      

TC-1和Geotail对亚暴过程中近地等离子体片磁扰动的联合观测

以2004年9月28日02:53:20 UT的亚暴为例, 通过TC-1在磁尾约12.5 R_e 和Geotail卫星在近地磁尾等离子体片约8～9 R_e的联合观测, 研究亚暴触发过程中近地磁尾等离子体片中等离子体波动特征. 结果表明, 亚暴触发区是近地磁尾中心等离子体片中较小的一个区域, 在亚暴触发区中低混杂不稳定性在近地磁尾等离子体片中存在, 准垂直传播的低混杂波发生在亚暴触发过程中, 而亚暴触发过程中近地磁尾等离子体片外边界区内的磁场偶极化信号和扰动都非常微弱. 在亚暴触发和亚暴膨胀相过程中出现了多次具有不同特征的磁场偶极化现象.      

基于保障活动流程的装备群保障规模预测模型

为解决研制阶段装备群保障规模预测的问题,建立了基于保障活动流程的装备群保障规模预测模型.模型从装备群的使用任务入手,以研制阶段保障性分析和保障系统建模数据为输入,通过分析资源在保障活动中被占用或被消耗的定量关系,从占用型资源和消耗型资源两方面分别提供了由功能分析框图中各层保障活动的流程汇总保障活动资源需求的方法,对保障资源数量进行计算,进而依据这些资源的重量与体积参数预测装备群的保障规模.给出了某型机群保障规模预测的算例,验证了模型的合理性与工程适用性,能够为研制阶段装备保障的改进、系统部署性分析提供理论指导与技术支持.