太阳和地磁活动对高中低纬度站点Es层的影响

关于地磁和太阳活动对Es层形成的影响,已有研究所得结论不同甚至相互矛盾.为研究太阳和地磁活动对Es层的影响,对4个太阳活动周期（1970-2010年）高中低纬度站点每小时Es层的参数进行了分析.结果表明太阳和地磁活动对Es层形成确实具有影响,而且不同纬度Es层与太阳和地磁活动的相关系数也不相同.同时对Es层各参数对于太阳和地磁活动不同反应的原因进行了解释.     

第23周不同角宽CME的分布及与太阳黑子数位相的比较

统计分析了1996-2008年期间CME数量随角宽的分布, 将几个典型角宽的CME数量随时间变化的特征与太阳黑子数随时间变化特征进行比较. 分析结果表明, 角宽为0°～ 180°的CME占CME总数的95%以上, 全晕CME占2.83%, 角宽301°～ 359°的CME数量非常少. 角宽0° ～ 60°的CME有三个峰值, 与太阳黑子数随时间变化的特征不吻合. 角宽为121°～ 180°CME的数量无双峰分布. 全晕CME的分布具有明显的双峰结构, 第一个峰值出现在2001年, 第二个峰值出现在2005年, 与太阳黑子数的变化不同步.     

2004年12月13日IMF北向期间极区亚暴电离层电动力学特征

利用KRM地磁反演方法, 结合北半球中高纬度地磁台站数据, 研究了2004年12月13日行星际磁场北向期间发生的亚暴事件, 极区电离层电动力学参量(电流矢量、等效电流函数以及电势)的分布特征. 结果表明, 在该亚暴膨胀相起始后, 午夜之前西向电集流急剧增强, 且等效电流体系表现为夜侧双涡, 同时伴随夜侧增强的南向电场. 由于极弱的直接驱动过程, 卸载过程引起的电离层效应得到清楚显示. 卸载过程在膨胀相期间起绝对主导性作用. 同时, 夜侧电导率的增强是电集流区域电流急剧增强的主要原因.     

磁暴期电离层离子上行能通量的统计关系研究

利用FAST卫星1997 － 2006年34个磁暴期149个轨道的观测数据,分析不同相位上行通量数量级,研究不同相位离子上行能通量与地磁活动Sym-H指数和Kp指数,以及注入的Poynting通量之间的关系,构造上行通量经验模型。研究结果表明：磁暴主相期间,上行离子能通量可超过108 eV·cm–2·s–1·sr–1·eV –1量级,初相和恢复相期,上行离子能通量可超过107 eV·cm–2·s–1·sr–1·eV –1量级,主相期能通量均值普遍高于初相和恢复相;磁暴初相期间,上行离子能通量与Sym-H、Kp以及Poynting通量成显著正相关,相关系数分别为0.890、0.664和0.660;磁暴主相期间相关系数分别为0.858、0.823和0.541。以磁暴主相为例,上行离子能通量与Sym-H和Poynting通量的经验公式为\begin{document}$ {J}_{{i}^{+}}={10}^{5.324 \pm 0.581}\times {\left(\mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H\right)}^{1.465 \pm 0.340} $\end{document},$ {J}_{{i}^{+}}={10}^{6.469 \pm 0.798}\times {{S}_{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{c}}}^{0.888 \pm 0.703} $。初相期间,由于地磁扰动时能量快速注入,电离层离子迅速获能,上行离子能通量与地磁扰动指数呈现较高的相关性,同时主相期上行离子能通量的增幅跨越两个量级;向下的Poynting通量导致的焦耳耗散是离子获能的重要来源之一,因此上行离子能通量与Poynting通量有较强的相关性。恢复相期间地磁活动趋于平静,上行离子能通量低于主相期的能通量。     

Analysis of a long-duration AR throughout five solar rotations: Magnetic properties and ejective events

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are among the most magnificent solar eruptions, are a major driver of space weather and can thus affect diverse human technologies. Different processes have been proposed to explain the initiation and release of CMEs from solar active regions (ARs), without reaching consensus on which is the predominant scenario, and thus rendering impossible to accurately predict when a CME is going to erupt from a given AR. To investigate AR magnetic properties that favor CMEs production, we employ multi-spacecraft data to analyze a long duration AR (NOAA 11089, 11100, 11106, 11112 and 11121) throughout its complete lifetime, spanning five Carrington rotations from July to November 2010. We use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory to study the evolution of the AR magnetic properties during the five near-side passages, and a proxy to follow the magnetic flux changes when no magnetograms are available, i.e. during far-side transits. The ejectivity is studied by characterizing the angular widths, speeds and masses of 108 CMEs that we associated to the AR, when examining a 124-day period. Such an ejectivity tracking was possible thanks to the multi-viewpoint images provided by the Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in a quasi-quadrature configuration. We also inspected the X-ray flares registered by the GOES satellite and found 162 to be associated to the AR under study. Given the substantial number of ejections studied, we use a statistical approach instead of a single-event analysis. We found three well defined periods of very high CMEs activity and two periods with no mass ejections that are preceded or accompanied by characteristic changes in the AR magnetic flux, free magnetic energy and/or presence of electric currents. Our large sample of CMEs and long term study of a single AR, provide further evidence relating AR magnetic activity to CME and Flare production.     

Correlation between sunspots and interplanetary shocks measured by ACE during 1998–2014 and some estimations for the 22nd solar cycle and the years between 2015 and 2018 with artificial neural network using the Cavus 2013 model

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft has measured 235 solar-based interplanetary (IP) shock waves between the years of 1998–2014. These were composed of 203 fast forward (FF), 6 slow forward (SF), 21 fast reverse (FR) and 5 slow reverse (SR) type shocks. These data can be obtained from the Interplanetary Shock Database of Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics. The Solar Section of American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) is an organization that counts the number of the sunspots. The effects of interplanetary shock waves on some physical parameters can be computed using a hydrodynamical model. There should be some correlations between these effects and the sunspot variations. The major objective of this paper is twofold. The first one is to search these correlations with sunspots given in the database of AAVSO. As expected, high correlations between physical parameters and sunspots have been obtained and these are presented in tables below. The second objective is to make an estimation of these parameters for the 22nd solar cycle and the years between 2015 and 2018 using an artificial neural network. Predictions have been made for these years where no shock data is present using artificial intelligence. The correlations were observed to increase further when these prediction results were included.     

Trends in foF2 and the 24th solar activity cycle

The trends in foF2 are analyzed based on the data of Juliusruh and Boulder ionospheric stations. It is shown that using the traditional solar activity index F10.7 leads to an impossible trend in foF2 when the data for the 24th solar activity cycle are included into the analysis. It is assumed that the F10.7 index does not describe correctly the solar ultraviolet radiation variations in that cycle. A correction of this index using the Rz (sunspot number) and Ly (intensity of the Lyman-α line in the solar spectrum) is performed, and it is shown that in that case reasonable values of the foF2 trends are obtained.     

Solar activity variations of equatorial spread F occurrence and sustenance during different seasons over Indian longitudes: Empirical model and causative mechanisms

A comprehensive analysis using nearly two decades of ionosonde data is carried out on the seasonal and solar cycle variations of Equatorial Spread F (ESF) irregularities over magnetic equatorial location Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E). The corresponding Rayleigh Taylor (RT) instability growth rates (γ) are also estimated. A seasonal pattern of ESF occurrence and the corresponding γ is established for low solar (LSA), medium solar (MSA) and high solar (HSA) activity periods. For LSA, it is seen that the γ maximizes during post sunset time with comparable magnitudes for autumnal equinox (AE), vernal equinox (VE) and winter solstice (WS), while for summer solstice (SS) it maximizes in the post-midnight period. Concurrent responses are seen in the ESF occurrence pattern. For MSA, γ maximizes during post-sunset for VE followed by WS and AE while SS maximises during post-midnight period. The ESF occurrence for MSA is highest for VE (80%), followed by AE (70%), WS (60%) and SS (50%). In case of HSA, maximum γ occurs for VE followed by AE, WS and SS. The concurrent ESF occurrence maximizes for VE and AE (90%), WS and SS at 70%.The solar cycle variation of γ is examined. γ shows a linear variation with F10.7?cm flux. Further, ESF percentage occurrence and duration show an exponential and linear variation respectively with γ. An empirical model on the solar activity dependence of ESF occurrence and sustenance time over Indian longitudes is arrived at using the database spanning two solar cycles for the first time.     

Topological and statistical properties of nonlinear force-free fields

We use our semi-analytic solution of the nonlinear force-free field equation to construct three-dimensional magnetic fields that are applicable to the solar corona and study their statistical properties for estimating the degree of braiding exhibited by these fields. We present a new formula for calculating the winding number and compare it with the formula for the crossing number. The comparison is shown for a toy model of two helices and for realistic cases of nonlinear force-free fields; conceptually the formulae are nearly the same but the resulting distributions calculated for a given topology can be different. We also calculate linkages, which are useful topological quantities that are independent measures of the contribution of magnetic braiding to the total free energy and relative helicity of the field. Finally, we derive new analytical bounds for the free energy and relative helicity for the field configurations in terms of the linking number. These bounds will be of utility in estimating the braided energy available for nano-flares or for eruptions.     

A statistical study of solar radio Type III bursts and space weather implication

Solar radio bursts (SRBs) are the signatures of various phenomenon that happen in the solar corona and interplanetary medium (IPM). In this article, we have studied occurrence of Type III bursts and their association with the Sunspot number. This study confirms that occurrence of Type III bursts correlate well with Sunspot number. Further, using the data obtained using e-CALLISTO network, we have investigated drift rates of isolated Type III bursts and duration of the group of Type III bursts. Since Type II, Type III and Type IV bursts are signatures of solar flares and/or CMEs, we can use the radio observations to predict space weather hazards. In this article, we have discussed two events that have caused near Earth radio blackouts. Since e-CALLISTO comprises more than 152 stations at different longitudes, we can use it to monitor the radio emissions from the solar corona 24 h a day. Such observations play a crucial role in monitoring and predicting space weather hazards within few minutes to hours of time.