第22太阳周地磁活动峰值和时间的预计

本文讨论了从第13—22太阳周太阳和地磁周的特征.运用自激励门限自回归时间序列模型和最大熵谱原理自回归数学方法来模拟和预报地磁aa指数年均值峰值和时间.峰值时间是1993年秋天或1994年春天.地磁aa指数年均值峰值是26—29.第22地磁周是一个中等活动的周.     

Correction of B2bot for NeQuick during low solar activity at Hainan station

This work is a continuation of the previous article and it focuses on low solar activity and modeling effort. NeQuick model uses Epstein layer formalism to model each part of the profile. We study the diurnal and seasonal variations of B2_bot, ΔB2 (B2_best − B2_NeQuick2) and R (B2_best/B2_{NeQuick 2}) at Hainan station during low solar activity. The results show it is possible to improve the B2_bot parameter of the NeQuick model at that region during low solar activity. Then, we use a function ?(t) with LT in different seasons to correct the B2_bot formula of NeQuick 2. The correction shows that (1) By the correction formula, the B2_bot of NeQuick is improved. The maximum standard deviation is improved for 9 km. (2) The correction formula is more effective in summer than in equinox and winter and performs better during early morning hours than during the rest of the day.     

Near 13.5-day periodicity in Muon Detector data during late 2001 and early 2002

In this study we perform a continuous Morlet wavelet transform method in time series of secondary cosmic rays and 1 AU interplanetary medium parameters for the interval from October 2001 to October 2002. The near 13.5-day periodicity was obtained during late 2001, and it was remarkable for muon data. Even though some works have pointed out that the main activations of the 13.5 day recurrence in near-Earth solar wind are related, e.g., with the heliosheet crossings or to the occurrence at 1 AU of two high speed streams approximately 180° apart in solar longitude per solar rotation, we aim to show that the period of about half the solar rotation during the end months of 2001 present in muon time series was apparently due to the occurrence of non-recurrent interplanetary disturbances. The interconnections among successive Forbush decreases, recovery phases and gradual muon depressions (associated with corotating interaction regions) seem to play an important role in such 13.5-day periodicity.     

AVS-F observations of γ-ray emission during January 20, 2005 solar flare up to 140 MeV

The solar flare of January 20, 2005 (X7.1, 06:36–07:26 UT, maximum at 07:01 UT by the GOES soft X-ray data) was the most powerful one in January 2005 series. The AVS-F apparatus onboard CORONAS-F registered γ-emission during soft X-ray rising phase of this flare in two energy ranges of 0.1–20 MeV and 2–140 MeV. The highest γ-ray energy registered during this flare was ∼140 MeV. Six spectral features were registered in energy spectrum of this solar flare: annihilation + αα (0.4–0.6 MeV), ²⁴Mg + ²⁰Ne + ²⁸Si + neutron capture (1.7–2.3 MeV), ²¹Ne + ²²Ne + ¹⁶O + ¹²С (3.2–5.0 MeV), ¹⁶O (5.3–6.9 MeV), one from neutral pions decay (25–110 MeV) and one in energy band 15–21 MeV. Four of them contain typical for solar flares lines – annihilation, nuclear de-excitation and neutron capture at ¹H. Spectral feature caused by neutral pions decay was registered during several flares too. Some spectral peculiarities in the region of 15–21 MeV were first observed in solar flare energy spectrum.     

Comparison of Diurnal,Seasonal and Solar Cycle Variations of High-latitude,Mid-latitude and Low-latitude Ionosphere

Comparison of regular (diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle) variations of high-latitude,mid-latitude and low-latitude ionospheric characteristics has been provided on basis of local empirical models of the peak electron density and the peak height. The local empirical models were derived from the hand-scaled ionogram data recorded by DPS-4 digisondes located at Norilsk (69°N, 88°E), Irkutsk (52°N, 104°E) and Hainan (19°N, 109°E) for a 6-year period from December, 2002 to December, 2008. The technique used to build the local empirical model is described. The primary focus is diurnal-seasonal behavior under low solar activity and its change with increasing solar activity. Both common and specific features of the high-latitude (Norilsk), mid-latitude (Irkutsk) and low-latitude (Hainan) regular variations were revealed using their local empirical models.      

Effect of solar activity on the repetitiveness of some meteorological phenomena

In this paper we research the relationship between solar activity and the weather on Earth. This research is based on the assumption that every ejection of magnetic field energy and particles from the Sun (also known as Solar wind) has direct effects on the Earth’s weather. The impact of coronal holes and active regions on cold air advection (cold fronts, precipitation, and temperature decrease on the surface and higher layers) in the Belgrade region (Serbia) was analyzed. Some active regions and coronal holes appear to be in a geo-effective position nearly every 27 days, which is the duration of a solar rotation. A similar period of repetitiveness (27–29 days) of the passage of the cold front, and maximum and minimum temperatures measured at surface and at levels of 850 and 500 hPa were detected. We found that 10–12 days after Solar wind velocity starts significantly increasing, we could expect the passage of a cold front. After eight days, the maximum temperatures in the Belgrade region are measured, and it was found that their minimum values appear after 12–16 days. The maximum amount of precipitation occurs 14 days after Solar wind is observed. A recurring period of nearly 27 days of different phases of development for hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma was found. This analysis confirmed that the intervals of time between two occurrences of some particular meteorological parameter correlate well with Solar wind and A index.     

Mid-latitude thermospheric zonal winds during the equinoxes

The diurnal variation of the mid-latitude upper thermosphere zonal winds during equinoxes has been studied using data recently generated from CHAMP measurements from 2002 to 2004 using an iterative algorithm. The wind data was separated into two geomagnetic activity levels, representing high geomagnetic activity level (Ap > 8) and low geomagnetic activity level (Ap ? 8). The data were further separated into two solar flux levels; with F10.7 > 140 for high and F10.7 ? 140 for low. Geomagnetic activity is a correlator just as significant as solar activity. The response of mid-latitude thermospheric zonal winds to increases in geomagnetic disturbances and solar flux is evident. With increase in geomagnetic activity, midday to midnight winds are generally less eastward and generally more westward after the about midnight transitions. The results show that east west transitions generally occurred about midnight hours for all the situations analyzed. The west to east transition occurs from 1400–1500 MLT. Enhanced westward averaged zonal wind speeds going above 150 ms⁻¹ are observed in the north hemisphere mid-latitude about sunrise hours (∼0700–1100 MLT). Nighttime winds in the north hemisphere are in good agreement with previous single station ground observations over Millstone Hill. Improved ground observations and multi satellite observations from space will greatly improve temporal coverage of the Earth’s thermosphere.     

Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) and comparison with IRI model during descending phase of solar activity (2005–2009)

The ionospheric variability at equatorial and low latitude region is known to be extreme as compared to mid latitude region. In this study the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), is derived by analyzing dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded at two stations separated by 325 km near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Varanasi (Geog latitude 25°, 16^/ N, longitude 82°, 59^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 16°, 08^/ N) and Kanpur (Geog latitude 26°, 18^/ N, longitude 80°, 12^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 17°, 18^/ N). Specifically, we studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) during the descending phase of solar activity from 2005 to 2009. It is found that the maximum TEC (EIA) near equatorial anomaly crest yield their maximum values during the equinox months and their minimum values during the summer. Using monthly averaged peak magnitude of TEC, a clear semi-annual variation is seen with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. Results also showed the presence of winter anomaly or seasonal anomaly in the EIA crest throughout the period 2005–2009 only except during the deep solar minimum year 2007–2008. The correlation analysis indicate that the variation of EIA crest is more affected by solar activity compared to geomagnetic activity with maximum dependence on the solar EUV flux, which is attributed to direct link of EUV flux on the formation of ionosphere and main agent of the ionization. The statistical mean occurrence of EIA crest in TEC during the year from 2005 to 2009 is found to around 12:54 LT hour and at 21.12° N geographic latitude. The crest of EIA shifts towards lower latitudes and the rate of shift of the crest latitude during this period is found to be 0.87° N/per year. The comparison between IRI models with observation during this period has been made and comparison is poor with increasing solar activity with maximum difference during the year 2005.     

Lunar cosmic ray radiation environments during Luna and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter missions

The RV-2N-series instruments onboard Luna missions and the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument onboard Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) were designed to characterize the global lunar radiation environment and its biological impacts by measuring cosmic ray (CR) intensity. In this study, we have shown that the RV-2N-series instruments onboard of Russian Luna missions and the CRaTER reliably detect both background CRs and solar proton events (SPEs) in the lunar radiation environment using the proton intensity measured by the RV-2N-series onboard Luna missions out of the Russian Luna program for the exploration of the Moon (November 1970–August 1975) and the CR intensity on the Moon observed by the CRaTER (June 2009–March 2011). Those were compared with the CR intensities observed by neutron monitors (McMurdo, Thule, Oulu) on the Earth. The sunspot number is used as the index of solar activity (NOAA National Geophysical Data Center). As a result, the background CR intensities on the Moon turned out to have a good anti-correlation with the solar activity. We have also identified the proton intensity increasing events on the Moon which have the similar profiles to those observed by neutron monitors on the Earth. Most of these events show the significant increase of proton intensities in the lunar radiation environment when the SPEs associated with solar eruptions are verified. Therefore, most of the proton intensity increasing events are associated with the energetic solar particles in the lunar environment.     

舱外活动中航天员利用扶手移动的路径规划

航天员在舱外活动中,常常需要从一个工作点向另一个工作点移动.提出了一种用于搜寻两个工作点间最短通路的路径规划的方法.该方法利用人工智能中的启发式搜索A^*算法,在用栅格法对三维工作环境进行离散化的基础上,采用路径最短原则,完成了航天员在舱外活动中依靠扶手移动的路径规划.对一个例子进行了研究,并对结果进行了分析.规划的路径可为航天员舱外活动扶手的安装位置提供参考依据,以减少航天员舱外作业的工作时间、降低能量消耗以及提高航天员舱外作业的工作效率.