Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC

Solar activity prediction services started in 1960’s in National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC). As one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China) was set up in 1990’s. Solar Activity Prediction Center (SAPC), as one of the four sub-centers of RWC-China, is located in NAOC. Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecast of solar activities. Nowadays, certain prediction models, such as solar X-ray flare model, solar proton event model, solar 10 cm radio flux model, have been established for the practical prediction services. Recently, more and more physical analyses are introduced in the studies of solar activity prediction, such as the magnetic properties of solar active regions and magnetic structure of solar atmosphere. Besides traditional statistics algorithms, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence techniques, such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, are employed in the establishment of forecast models. A Web-based integrated platform for solar activity data sharing and forecast distribution is under construction.     

简单二体引力模型用于空间目标轨道面交线确定的效果分析

在空间目标碰撞预警分析中，准确地计算出空间目标的轨道面交线是进行地心距筛选、时间差筛选的前提，目前较多使用的快速确定轨道面交线的方法为简单二体引力模型。深入分析该模型，比较了其计算的空间目标轨道面交线与STK计算结果的差异，指出了简单二体引力模型在计算空间目标轨道面交线时的局限性，认为轨道摄动是影响轨道面交线计算准确性的主要原因，应该采用更能反映空间目标实际运动规律的改进的二体引力模型的方法。     

PC-index fluctuations and intermittency of the magnetospheric dynamics

One minute resolution Polar Cap (PC) index was used for the analysis of magnetospheric dynamics. The 1995–2000 time series analysis revealed that the power spectrum of the PC-index fluctuations is a power law in a wide range of frequencies. However, the obtained exponents differ for low and high frequency regions. The probability distribution functions of the PC-index fluctuations show a strong non-gaussian shape, depending on the time of increment. This indicates that the PC-index exhibits intermittency, previously detected in solar wind and auroral electrojet index fluctuations. The PC-index probability distribution functions were fitted by the functional form proposed by Castaing et al. [Velocity probability density functions of high Reynolds number turbulence. Physica D. 46, 177–200, 1990] to describe intermittency phenomena in ordinary turbulent fluid flows. The agreement between the fitting parameters obtained for the PC index and those reported before for solar wind magnetic field fluctuations is within 30%; which is noticeably less than the difference between the same parameters of solar wind and the AE-index fluctuations. This fact indicates that the PC index reflects the solar wind influence on the high-latitude magnetosphere, especially during the summer.     

Progress in Space Material Researches

New progress in the post researches on space grown materials, the development of experiment facilities, and the experiment techniques for space materials researches were introduced. Besides the conventional materials, such as alloys, semiconductors, and optical crystals, new materials have also been prepared on the ground.     

Role of the current young generation within the space exploration sector

The space sector gathers together people from a variety of fields who work in the industry on different levels and with different expertise. What is often forgotten is the impact and role of the current young generation. Their engagement is of great importance as undeniably today's young ‘space generation’ will be defining the direction of future space exploration.Today's vision of future human and robotic space exploration has been set out in the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER). This focuses on sustainable, affordable and productive long-term goals. The strategy begins with the International Space Station (ISS) and then expands human presence into the solar system, including a human mission to Mars.This paper presents a general overview of the role of today's youth within the space exploration sector and the challenges to overcome. To complete this perspective, we present results from a survey made among students and young professionals about their levels of awareness of the GER. The respondents presented their opinion about current aspects of the GER and prioritised the GER's objectives. It is hoped that the paper will bring a new perspective into the GER and a contribution to the current GER strategy.     

A permanent lunar base : Alternatives and choices

It appears virtually certain that humans will return to the lunar surface to stay and exploit the lunar resources. The only remaining question is who, when and how humankind will go there to establish a permanent lunar base. This article describes the decision-making process of determining the parameters of a lunar base. It offers modelling options as a frame of reference for planning the lunar base and its logistic support, and gives the reasons why a detailed analysis of the options and forward planning should have a high priority now.     

Increased urinary excretion rates of serotonin and metabolites during bedrest

Astronauts are often on a voluntarily reduced energy intake during space missions, possibly caused by a metabolic or emotional stress response with involvement of the central serotonergic system (SES). We investigated 24 h urinary excretion (24 h-E) of serotonin (5-HT) and 5-hydroxyindol acidic acid as indicators of the SES in healthy males under two different normocaloric conditions: normal physical activity (NPA) and -6 degree head-down-tilt (HDT). HDT or NPA were randomly arranged with a recovery period of 6 months in between. 24 h-E of hormones varied widely among individuals. Values were higher in HDT compared to NPA. Assuming that the 24 h-E values are, beside being indicators for alterations in the number and metabolism of platelets. Also indicators of central SES, HDT condition seems to activate central SES in a higher degree compared to NPA. Therefore, changes in central SES might be involved in the mechanisms associated with space flight or microgravity, including possible maladaptations such as voluntary undernutrition.     

空间微波交会雷达总体构想

结合我国载人航天工程未来发展的需要,分析了国外微波交会雷达技术的发展方向,提出了我国微波交会雷达的总体实施方案构想。     

欧洲空间天气计划

简要介绍了空间天气的基本概念,并对欧洲空间天气计划的效益分析、用户需求、实施方案等方面的内容进行介绍。     

全球空间天气路线图及对中国的启示

随着科技的发展,空间天气对电力系统、通信导航系统和航天资产等遍布全球的技术基础设施的影响越来越深.需要加强对空间天气事件过程的理解,提升空间天气的预报能力,优化基础设施设计,从而减缓空间天气对社会造成的影响.基于这些需求,国际空间研究委员会(COSPAR)联合国际与日共存计划(ILWS)共同成立专家组,研究制定了全球2015-2025空间天气发展路线图.本文对该路线图进行介绍和解读,讨论该路线图对中国空间天气发展的启示.