Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Induction of genomic instability after an acute whole-body exposure of mice to Fe ions

The purpose of this study was to evaluate dose–response relationships for the in vivo induction of micronuclei (MN) as a measure of both initial radiation damage and the induction of genomic instability. These measurements were made in mouse blood erythrocytes as a function of radiation dose, radiation quality, time after irradiation, and the genetic background of exposed individuals. Blood samples were collected from two strains of mouse (CBA/CaJ and C57BL/6J) at different times up to 3 months following a whole-body exposure to various doses of 1 GeV/amu ⁵⁶Fe ions (0, 0.1, 0.5 and 1.0 Gy, at the dose rate of a 1 Gy/min) or ¹³⁷Cs gamma rays (0, 0.5, 1.0 and 3.0 Gy, at the dose rate of 0.72 Gy/min). Blood-smear slides were stained with acridine orange (AO). The frequencies of MN were measured in mature normochromatic-erythrocytes (MN-NCEs) and in immature polychromatic-erythrocytes (MN-PCEs). Effects of both types of radiation on erythropoiesis were also evaluated. As a measure of cell progression delay, a dose-dependent decrease in numbers of PCEs was observed at day 2 post-exposure in both strains, regardless of radiation quality. Subsequently, the levels of PCEs increased in all exposed mice, reaching control levels (or higher) by day 7 post-exposure. Further, at day 2 after the exposure, there was no increase in the frequency of MN-PCEs in CBA/CaJ mice exposed to ⁵⁶Fe ions while the frequency of MN-PCEs elevated as a function of dose in the C57BL/6J mice. At day 4, there was no dose related increase in MN-NCEs in either strain of mouse exposed to ¹³⁷Cs gamma rays. Additionally, at the early sacrifice times (days 2 and 4), ⁵⁶Fe ions were slightly more effective (per unit dose) in inducing MN-NCEs than ¹³⁷Cs gamma rays in CBA/CaJ mice. However, there was no increase in the frequency of MN-NCEs at late times after an acute exposure to either type of radiation. In contrast, both types of radiation induced increased MN-PCEs frequencies in irradiated CBA/CaJ mice, but not C57BL/6J mice, at late times post-exposure. This finding indicates the potential induction of genomic instability in hematopoietic cells of CBA/CaJ mice by both types of radiation. The finding also demonstrates the influence of genetic background on radiation-induced genomic instability in vivo.     

基于源项辨识的飞机座舱污染浓度动态预测

随着大型民机飞行时间的延长,座舱空气污染事故发生概率也随之增大,快速准确的污染浓度预测对保证乘客生命安全具有重要意义.座舱各污染浓度的动态预测和污染源项强度辨识是实现座舱空气质量实时预测的关键技术.污染源项散发强度辨识,如采用最小二乘算法,参数估计是静态的,一般延迟较大;如采用单模卡尔曼滤波算法,虽能实现动态辨识,但不能同时兼顾稳态和过渡过程(突发污染)的参数估计性能,导致误差较大.为解决上述难题,本文提出基于源项辨识的飞机座舱污染浓度动态预测方法,同时完成污染源散发强度动态辨识和污染浓度状态实时预测.该算法由2个滤波器组成,分别用于匹配系统的稳态和突发过渡过程特征,提高浓度方程参数估计和状态预测性能,保证飞机座舱空气质量态势预测的快速性和准确性.仿真结果证实了该算法的有效性.     

基于逐步回归的模型误差估计及在天基测控系统中的应用研究

以双星定位系统的天基测控技术为应用背景,提出了一种能够自适应估计模 型误差的轨道确定方法。详细推导了观测模型中的系统误差形态,建立了能表征实际特征的 部分线性轨道改进模型,并利用二阶段法和核函数估计法对混合误差进行补偿,在此基础上 对补偿模型进行逐步回归分析,从中提取动力学模型误差,从而抑制了动力学模型误差的影 响,提高了轨道改进的精度。在本文的仿真环境下,部分线性轨道改进法能够有效抑制混合 误差对定轨精度的影响,提高天基测控的轨道确定精度。     

32颗GPS卫星星座空间覆盖特性建模与仿真

GPS卫星要准确完成定位功能可见卫星数应不少于4颗.通过建立针对低轨、中高轨和大椭圆轨道目标卫星的GPS信号空间几何覆盖模型,利用Matlab计算针对低轨、中高轨和大椭圆轨道的可见卫星数,对目前美国32颗GPS卫星星座的空间覆盖特性进行仿真.仿真结果显示,32颗GPS卫星星座不仅可以对低轨目标实现全轨道覆盖,而且对中高轨和大椭圆轨道也有所覆盖,大大扩展了24颗GPS卫星星座的空间应用.     

诱发卫星深层充电的高能电子环境模式研究

文章介绍了与卫星介质深层充电相关的辐射带高能电子环境的主要特征和规律,建立了相应的高能电子环境模式及软件,并运用该模式针对某飞行器的深层充放电危险性进行了分析和评估。结果表明该模式相对于AE8模式更好地反映了高能电子环境的动态特征,与欧空局建立的FLUMIC模式符合较好。该模式与深层充电分析模型相结合,可用于对航天器的充放电异常进行在轨诊断,以及在工程上针对深层充电进行防护设计。     

影响PCL系统探测性能的因素分析

给出了可选作无源探测系统辐射源的信号参数,分析了目标的双基地等效反射面积、接收机噪声系数、干扰电平的组成及其相应的处理方法、PCL系统有效带宽和积累增益的关系,并对PCL系统的灵敏度和覆盖范围进行了研究.以此为基础,重新推导了双基地无源探测的距离方程.最后通过仿真分析了PCL系统可以获得的性能及其关键确定因素.     

载人飞船泄复压过程中轨道舱的噪声环境试验研究

为了考察航天员对载人飞船泄复压过程中轨道舱内噪声环境的适应性,在KM6水平舱进行了相应的模拟试验,对轨道舱中的噪声环境进行了试验测量与研究.试验结果及航天员的实际感受表明,泄复压过程中轨道舱内的噪声环境满足要求,产生的噪声对航天员不会造成伤害.     

Human response to high-background radiation environments on Earth and in space

The main long-term objective of the space exploration program is the colonization of the planets of the Solar System. The high cosmic radiation equivalent dose rate represents an inescapable problem for the safe establishment of permanent human settlements on these planets. The unshielded equivalent dose rate on Mars ranges between 100 and 200 mSv/year, depending on the Solar cycle and altitude, and can reach values as high as 360 mSv/year on the Moon. The average annual effective dose on Earth is about 3 mSv, nearly 85% of which comes from natural background radiation, reduced to less than 1 mSv if man-made sources and the internal exposure to Rn daughters are excluded. However, some areas on Earth display anomalously high levels of background radiation, as is the case with thorium-rich monazite bearing sand deposits where values 200–400 times higher than the world average can be found. About 2% of the world’s population live above 3 km and receive a disproportionate 10% of the annual effective collective dose due to cosmic radiation, with a net contribution to effective dose by the neutron component which is 3–4 fold that at sea level. Thus far, epidemiological studies have failed to show any adverse health effects in the populations living in these terrestrial high-background radiation areas (HBRA), which provide an unique opportunity to study the health implications of an environment that, as closely as possibly achievable on Earth, resembles the chronic exposure of future space colonists to higher-than-normal levels of ionizing radiation. Chromosomal aberrations in the peripheral blood lymphocytes from the HBRA residents have been measured in several studies because chromosomal damage represents an early biomarker of cancer risk. Similar cytogenetic studies have been recently performed in a cohort of astronauts involved in single or repeated space flights over many years. The cytogenetic findings in populations exposed to high dose-rate background radiation on Earth or in space will be discussed.     

High resolution science with high redshift galaxies

We summarize the high-resolution science that has been done on high redshift galaxies with Adaptive Optics (AO) on the world’s largest ground-based facilities and with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). These facilities complement each other. Ground-based AO provides better light gathering power and in principle better resolution than HST, giving it the edge in high spatial resolution imaging and high resolution spectroscopy. HST produces higher quality, more stable PSF’s over larger field-of-views in a much darker sky-background than ground-based AO, and yields deeper wide-field images and low-resolution spectra than the ground. Faint galaxies have steadily decreasing sizes at fainter fluxes and higher redshifts, reflecting the hierarchical formation of galaxies over cosmic time. HST has imaged this process in great structural detail to z  6, and ground-based AO and spectroscopy has provided measurements of their masses and other physical properties with cosmic time. Last, we review how the 6.5 m James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will measure First Light, reionization, and galaxy assembly in the near–mid-IR after 2013.