Effects of solar modulation on the cosmic ray positron fraction

We implemented a 2D Monte Carlo model to simulate the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. The model is based on the Parker’s transport equation which contains diffusion, convection, particle drift and energy loss. Following the evolution in time of the solar activity, we are able to modulate a local interstellar spectrum (LIS), that we assumed isotropic beyond the termination shock, down to the Earth position inside the heliosphere. In this work we focused our attention to the cosmic ray positron fraction at energy below ∼10 GeV, showing how the particle drift processes could explain different results for AMS-01 and PAMELA. We compare our modulated spectra with observations at Earth, and then make a prediction of the cosmic ray positron fraction for the AMS-02 experiment.     

Magnetospheric disturbances associated with the 13 December 2006 solar flare and their ionospheric effects over North-East Asia

We present an observational study of magnetospheric and ionospheric disturbances during the December 2006 intense magnetic storm associated with the 4В/Х3.4 class solar flare. To perform the study we utilize the ground data from North–East Asian ionospheric and magnetic observatories (60–72°N, 88–152°E) and in situ measurements from LANL, GOES, Geotail and ACE satellites. The comparative analysis of ionospheric, magnetospheric and heliospheric disturbances shows that the interaction of the magnetosphere with heavily compressed solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field caused the initial phase of the magnetic storm. It was accompanied by the intense sporadic E and F2 layers and the total black-out in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere. During the storm main phase, LANL-97A, LANL 1994_084, LANL 1989-046 and GOES_11 satellites registered a compression of the dayside magnetosphere up to their orbits. In the morning–noon sector the compression was accompanied by an absence of reflections from ionosphere over subauroral ionospheric station Zhigansk (66.8°N, 123.3°E), and a drastic decrease in the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) up to 54% of the quite one over subauroral Yakutsk station (62°N, 129.7°E). At the end of the main phase, these stations registered a sharp foF2 increase in the afternoon sector. At Yakutsk the peak foF2 was 1.9 time higher than the undisturbed one. The mentioned ionospheric disturbances occurred simultaneously with changes in the temperature, density and temperature anisotropy of particles at geosynchronous orbit, registered by the LANL-97A satellite nearby the meridian of ionospheric and magnetic measurements. The whole complex of disturbances may be caused by radial displacement of the main magnetospheric domains (magnetopause, cusp/cleft, plasma sheet) with respect to the observation points, caused by changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure, the field of magnetospheric convection, and rotation of the Earth.     

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

一种基于单站仅测角观测的弹道射向估计算法

针对单站仅测角条件下的弹道射向估计问题,提出了一种新的基于推力加速度模板的弹道射向估计算法。首先,建立以射向为待估参数的弹道平面切割模型,获得一组备选弹道曲线。其次,通过UKF算法从每条备选弹道曲线中估计出推力加速度曲线。最后,将得到的推力加速度曲线与推力加速度模板进行匹配,进而得到弹道射向估计结果。仿真结果验证了该算法的有效性。     

基于粒子轨迹的结冰风洞收缩段优化设计数值模拟

为了研究收缩段型面和液滴轨迹特性对结冰风洞流场品质与结冰试验效果的重要影响,获得收缩段的优化设计参数,采用数值模拟方法,使用二维简化模型对3m×2m结冰风洞收缩段的流场特性进行了研究,对几种典型收缩曲线的流场进行了计算,对比了收缩曲线对沿轴向压力分布、出口截面速度分布、不同粒径云雾粒子的极限释放距离及试验段入口云雾粒子分布的影响,结果表明:三次曲线与x_m为0.4的五次曲线不能满足流场合格指标,其他曲线流场特性差别不大,维氏曲线具有最小极限释放距离,在收缩段出口,三次曲线和五次曲线粒子包络面积最大,综合比较,x_m为0.5的五次曲线能有效兼顾流场均匀性、极限释放距离和收缩段出口粒子包络面积比.      

栅格翼电弧风洞试验的气动参数模拟方法研究

为验证栅格翼防热方案的有效性,针对栅格翼单片级试验件厚度过低无法直接测量试验件冷壁热流密度的难题,提出了一种直接模拟来流气动参数的栅格翼热防护试验设计方法,能够准确考核防热方案,对类似结构的热防护试验具有指导意义。     

飞翼布局飞行器等离子体激励滚转操控试验

飞翼布局飞行器采用多个气动舵面共同作用来控制飞行,常规气动舵面的结构复杂,在大迎角时由于流动分离,舵面操纵效率显著降低。等离子体激励器具有结构简单、重量轻和响应快等优势,常被用在流动控制上。本文利用激励器抑制单侧翼面流动分离产生不对称的气动力,对飞翼布局飞行器滚转通道的控制进行了试验研究,得出了激励器在飞行器上的最优布置位置和最佳控制参数,并和常规副翼舵面滚转操控效果进行了对比。结果表明:布置于内翼、中翼前缘的等离子体激励器能够获得最佳的滚转控制效果;激励器调制频率对飞行器滚转控制效果的影响较大,而激励电压对滚转控制效果的影响较小;与常规副翼相比,等离子体激励器在大迎角时对滚转通道的操控效果优于副翼。     

侧风对舰载直升机悬停性能的影响

针对舰载直升机小速度、大侧滑的飞行状态,采用了旋翼非均匀入流模型,导出了直升机在风场中的运动方程。以某型机为例,对不同风速条件下直升机悬停时的平衡特性进行了计算分析。计算结果表明:左侧风对该机悬停性能影响最大,而尾桨操纵裕度要求左侧风速不能超过30m/s,与同类直升机的飞行数据吻合。分析模型为制订舰载直升机的风险图提供了理论依据。     

太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅰ)

采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当。