Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Possible physical properties of the flow in the vicinity of the heliopause

An interface between the fully ionized hydrogen plasma of the solar wind (SW) and the partially ionized hydrogen gas flow of the local interstellar medium (LISM) is formed as a region where there is a strong interaction between these two flows. The interface is bounded by the solar wind termination shock (TS) and the LISM bow shock (BS) and is separated on two regions by the heliopause (HP) separating the solar wind and charged component of the LISM (plasma component below). The BS is formed due to the deceleration of the supersonic LISM flow relative to the solar system. Regions of the interface between the TS and HP and between the HP and BS were in literature named as the inner and outer heliosheaths, respectively. An investigation of the structure and physical properties of the heliosheath is at present especially interested due to the fact that Voyager-1 and Voyager-2 have crossed the TS in December 2004 (Burlaga, L.F., Ness, N.F., Acuna, M.Y., et al. Crossing the termination shock into the the heliosheath. Magnetic fields. Science 309, 2027–2029, 2005; Fisk, L.A. Journey into the unknown beyond. Science 309, 2016–2017, 2005; Decker, R.B., Krimigis, S.M., Roelof, E.C., et al. Voyager 1 in the foreshock, termination shock and heliosheath. Science 309, 2020–2024, 2005; Stone, E.C., Cummings, A.C., McDonald, F.B., et al. Voyager 1 explores the termination shock region and the heliosheath beyond. Science 309, 2017–2020, 2005) and in September 2007 (Jokipii, J.R. A shock for Voyager 2. Nature 454, 38–39, 2008; Gurnett, D.A., Kurth, W.S. Intense plasma waves at and near the solar wind termination shock. Nature 454, 78–80, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07023; Wang, L., Lin, R.P., Larson, D.E., Luhmann, J.G. Domination of heliosheath pressure by shock-accelerated pickup ions from observations of neutral atoms. Nature 454, 81–83, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07068.14; Burlaga, L.F., Ness, N.F., Acuna, M.H., et al. Magnetic fields at the solar wind termination shock. Nature 454, 75–77, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07029; Richardson, J.D., Kasper, J.C., Wang, C., et al. Cool heliosheath plasma and deceleration of the upstream solar wind at the termination shock. Nature 454, 63–66, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07024; Stone, E.C., Cummings, A.C., McDonald, F.B., et al. An asymmetric solar wind termination shock. Nature 454, 71–74, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07022; Decker, R.B., Krimigis, S.M., Roelof, E.C., et al. Mediation of the solar wind termination shock by non-thermal ions. Nature 454, 67–70, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature 07030), respectively, and entered to the inner heliosheath.     

基于单纯形加速法的消除重建坐标轴误差

将一个坐标系平移、旋转到第二个坐标系位置,以建立坐标系的三个点九个坐标为自变量,应用单纯形加速法优化,通过调整步长,最大程度地消除建轴误差。     

角速率输入下圆锥补偿算法的一般形式

传统圆锥补偿算法直接应用于由速率陀螺组成的捷联惯导系统时,算法误差明显增大.为抑制算法误差,提出了一种以角速率为输入信号,任意子样数圆锥补偿算法(包括改进算法)的一般形式,并在典型圆锥运动条件下以算法漂移误差最小为优化准则,推导了相应的圆锥补偿系数方程和算法误差表达式.利用给出的公式,求解一个线性方程组即可得到圆锥补偿系数,可方便快捷的设计任意子样数的角速率圆锥补偿算法以及改进算法.仿真结果表明,所设计的改进算法比同子样数常规角速率圆锥补偿算法在精度上有明显提高.      

Solar signals in the minimum extreme temperature records in the southern region of the Gulf of Mexico

Minimum extreme temperature series from several meteorological stations of the Gulf of Mexico are spectrally analyzed using the Maximum Entropy Method.We obtained significant periodicities similar to those found in meteorological and solar activity phenomena. This indicates that probably the solar activity signals are present in the minimum extreme temperature records of this Mexican region.     

Which solar EUV indices are best for reconstructing the solar EUV irradiance?

The solar EUV irradiance is of key importance for space weather. Most of the time, however, surrogate quantities such as EUV indices have to be used by lack of continuous and spectrally resolved measurements of the irradiance. The ability of such proxies to reproduce the irradiance from different solar atmospheric layers is usually investigated by comparing patterns of temporal correlations. We consider instead a statistical approach. The TIMED/SEE experiment, which has been continuously operating since February 2002, allows for the first time to compare in a statistical manner the EUV spectral irradiance to five EUV proxies: the sunspot number, the f10.7, Ca K, and Mg II indices, and the He I equivalent width.     

Relation between galactic and solar cosmic radiation at aviation altitude

Cosmic radiation bombards us at high altitude with ionizing particles; the radiation has a galactic component, which is normally dominant, and a component of solar origin. Cosmic ray particles are the primary source of ionization in the atmosphere above 1 km; below 1 km radon is a dominant source of ionization in many areas.     

液体火箭上面级发动机用超低比转数泵研究

为了研制出液体火箭上面级发动机用高性能超低比转数离心泵,采用变曲率复合离心轮、加大流量法等设计措施,设计了比转数分别为24和33的两种高速小流量高扬程离心泵,并应用Fluent流体计算软件对其内流场进行了分析计算。所设计的泵已参加了相关试验,试验结果表明泵性能稳定,扬程曲线无“驼峰”,功率无过载,达到了设计目的。     

第2009卡林顿周太阳活动的初步分析

介绍了第 2 0 0 9卡林顿周大黑子群AR484,AR486和AR488产生的太阳活动以及这些太阳活动对地球空间环境造成的影响。依据对太阳活动的统计研究 ,简要分析了三个大黑子群活动的差异。分析结果指出 ,关注某一时期太阳活动的活动经度带以及太阳活动在某一半球的主次是解决太阳活动短期预报非常重要的思路     

卫星太阳电池阵在板展开阶段的撞击特性研究

研究了卫星太阳电池阵在板展开阶段的撞击特性,导童重要性一多体系统的动力学方程,介绍了撞击力的计算方法,计算了太阳电池阵在撞击阶段的撞击力和一些特殊节点的加速度和变化规律,计算结果表明,各点的撞击力在不同的时刻达到峰值,说明柔性板在撞击时发生了扭转,此外还发现靠近撞击处的节点的加速度在撞击瞬间比其它节点大,通过冲击波的传播引起外侧板的边界上节点的加速度不断上下振动,可以解释外侧帆板在撞击后上下、左右