Solar flare forecasting model supported with artificial neural network techniques

Nowadays operational models for solar activity forecasting are still based on the statistical relationship between solar activity and solar magnetic field evolution. In order to set up this relationship, many parameters have been proposed to be the measures. Conventional measures are based on the sunspot group classification which provides limited information from sunspots. For this reason, new measures based on solar magnetic field observations are proposed and a solar flare forecasting model supported with an artificial neural network is introduced. This model is equivalent to a person with a long period of solar flare forecasting experience.     

低波段天基雷达射频干扰机理及抑制方法

天基合成孔径雷达(SAR)是一种重要的主动遥感设备,在测绘、目标警戒、资源探测等方面具有独特的全天时、全天候优势。但由于低波段电磁频谱异常拥挤复杂,也容易受到其他无线电设备的非蓄意射频干扰(RFI)。本文针对工作于P、L波段的天基SAR系统,分析其常见的地面射频干扰源及其干扰机理,并构建典型的窄带与宽带干扰模型,比较分析了频域陷波、最小均方(LMS)算法、自适应线谱增强(ALE)、特征子空间分解与时频滤波等多种干扰抑制算法,并在卫星实测数据的基础上进行仿真验证抑制宽带干扰的有效性。仿真结果表明:时频滤波算法抑制宽带干扰效果最好,造成的信号损失最小,能够为后续天基合成孔径雷达的抗干扰算法设计提供决策依据。     

Self-similar stochastic processes in solar wind turbulence

Solar wind data is used to estimate the autocorrelation function for the stochastic process x(τ) = y(t + τ) − y(t), considered as a function of τ, where y(t) is any one of the quantities B²(t), n_p(t)V²(t), or n_p(t). This process has stationary increments and a variance that increases like a power law τ^2γ where γ is the scaling exponent. For the kinetic energy density and the proton density the scaling exponent is close to the Kolmogorov value γ = 1/3, for the magnetic energy density it is slightly larger. In all three cases, it is shown that the autocorrelation function estimated from the data agrees with the theoretical autocorrelation function for a self-similar stochastic process with stationary increments and finite variance. This is far from proof, but it suggests that these stochastic processes may be self-similar for time scales in the small scale inertial range of the turbulence, that is, from approximately 10 to 10³ s.     

Geomagnetic activity associated with magnetic clouds,magnetic cloud-like structures and interplanetary shocks for the period 1995–2003

Using nine years (1995–2003) of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data, solar sunspot number, and geomagnetic activity data, we investigated the geomagnetic activity associated with magnetic clouds (MCs), magnetic cloud-like structures (MCLs), and interplanetary shock waves. Eighty-two MCs and one hundred and twenty-two MCLs were identified by using solar wind and magnetic field data from the WIND mission, and two hundred and sixty-one interplanetary shocks were identified over the period of 1995–2003 in the vicinity of Earth. It is found that MCs are typically more geoeffective than MCLs or interplanetary shocks. The occurrence frequency of MCs is not well correlated with sunspot number. By contrast, both occurrence frequency of MCLs and sudden storm commencements (SSCs) are well correlated with sunspot number.     

Solar Models with Non-Standard Chemical Composition

The OPAL monochromatic opacity tables are used to evaluate the impact of a non-standard chemical composition on solar models. A calibrated solar model with consistent diffusion including the effect of radiative forces and ionization on drift velocities is presented. It is shown that surface abundances are predicted to change slightly more than in traditional solar models where these refinements are not included. All elements included in the model settle at similar rates which is reflected in the relative variation in surface abundances ranging from 7.5% for calcium to 8.8% for argon. The structural difference between the consistent model and the traditional model is small, with a maximum effect of 0.3% for the isothermal sound speed at the base of the convection zone. The settling of CNO is only marginally affected. Opacity profiles have also been calculated with varying abundances for volatile elements, for which the abundances are poorly known, and other selected elements. It is shown that if one allows a 10% variation of these elements individually one can expect a peak Rosseland mean opacity variation of 3% for oxygen, a little less 2% for Si and Ne, and around 1% for Mg and S in the radiative zone. Other light metals and volatile elements have no significant impact on the opacity. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Propagation and interaction of interplanetary transient disturbances. Numerical simulations

We study the heliocentric evolution of ICME-like disturbances and their associated transient forward shocks (TFSs) propagating in the interplanetary (IP) medium comparing the solutions of a hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models using the ZEUS-3D code [Stone, J.M., Norman, M.L., 1992. Zeus-2d: a radiation magnetohydrodynamics code for astrophysical flows in two space dimensions. i – the hydrodynamic algorithms and tests. Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 80, 753–790]. The simulations show that when a fast ICME and its associated IP shock propagate in the inner heliosphere they have an initial phase of about quasi-constant propagation speed (small deceleration) followed, after a critical distance (deflection point), by an exponential deceleration. By combining white light coronograph and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements of ICMEs propagating within 1 AU [Manoharan, P.K., 2005. Evolution of coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere: a study using white-light and scintillation images. Solar Physics 235 (1–2), 345–368], such a critical distance and deceleration has already been inferred observationally. In addition, we also address the interaction between two ICME-like disturbances: a fast ICME 2 overtaking a previously launched slower ICME 1. After interaction, the leading ICME 1 accelerates and the tracking ICME 2 decelerates and both ICMEs tend to arrive at 1 AU having similar speeds. The 2-D HD and MHD models show similar qualitative results for the evolution and interaction of these disturbances in the IP medium.     

Coronal radio-sounding detection of a CME during the 1997 Galileo solar conjunction

Frequency fluctuations of the Galileo S-band radio signal were recorded nearly continuously during the spacecraft’s solar conjunction from December 1996 to February 1997. A strong propagating disturbance, most probably associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), was detected on 7 February when the radio ray path proximate point was on the west solar limb at about 54 solar radii from the Sun. The CME passage through the line of sight is characterized by a significant increase in the fluctuation intensity of the recorded frequency and by an increase in the plasma speed from about 234 km s⁻¹ up to about 755 km s⁻¹. These velocity estimates are obtained from a correlation analysis of frequency fluctuations recorded simultaneously at two widely-separated ground stations. The density turbulence power spectrum is found to steepen behind the CME front. The Galileo radio-sounding data are compared with SOHO/LASCO observations of the CME in the corona and with WIND spacecraft data near the Earth’s orbit.     

Interplanetary Physics Research in China:2006—2008

This brief report summarized the latest advances of the interplanetary physics research in China during the period of 2006—2007,made independently by Chinese space physicists and through international collaboration.The report covers all aspects of the interplanetary physics,including theoretical studies,numerical simulation and data analysis.     

自然通风和蒸发冷却在新疆建筑应用的数值分析

为了使新疆和田地区夏季在经济性合理前提下使室内通风环境满足人体热舒适要求。利用蒸发冷却技术将室外空气处理后送入室内，通过数值模拟分析得出在夏季室内负荷最大时刻采用机械辅助式自然通风，使得室温能够雏持在26-8℃，风速为0．6m/s，基本满足人体热舒适要求。在室外温度适宜的过渡季节采用Trombe墙和太阳能烟囱复合的自然通风系统，建筑太阳能烟囱的经济高度为10m。