Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

Geocenter coordinates estimated from GNSS data as viewed by perturbation theory

Time series of geocenter coordinates were determined with data of two global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs), namely the U.S. GPS (Global Positioning System) and the Russian GLONASS (Global’naya Nawigatsionnaya Sputnikowaya Sistema). The data was recorded in the years 2008–2011 by a global network of 92 permanently observing GPS/GLONASS receivers. Two types of daily solutions were generated independently for each GNSS, one including the estimation of geocenter coordinates and one without these parameters.     

The effect of solar–geomagnetic activity during hospital admission on coronary events within 1 year in patients with acute coronary syndromes

Some evidence indicates the deterioration of the cardiovascular system during space storms. It is plausible that the space weather conditions during and after hospital admission may affect the risk of coronary events in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We analyzed the data of 1400 ACS patients who were admitted to the Hospital Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, and who survived for more than 4 days. We evaluated the associations between geomagnetic storms (GS), solar proton events (SPE), and solar flares (SF) that occurred 0–3 days before and after hospital admission and the risk of cardiovascular death (CAD), non-fatal ACS, and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during a period of 1 year; the evaluation was based on the multivariate logistic model, controlling for clinical data. After adjustment for clinical variables, GS occurring in conjunction with SF 1 day before admission increased the risk of CAD by over 2.5 times. GS 2 days after SPE occurred 1 day after admission increased the risk of CAD and CABG by over 2.8 times. The risk of CABG increased by over 2 times in patients admitted during the day of GS and 1 day after SPE. The risk of ACS was by over 1.63 times higher for patients admitted 1 day before or after solar flares.     

The investigation of powerful solar flares characteristics by analysis of excited states of C and various neutrons capture lines

Accelerated energetic particles in solar flares produced nuclear γ-lines in interactions with ambient solar atmosphere. Analysis of intensity of ratios between various γ-lines allows us to make estimations of abundance of elements, parameters of surrounding media and other solar characteristics. In this article we discuss the flux ratio between two lines from excited states of ¹²C (f_15.11/f_4.44) and our results of preliminary calculation of intensity ratio between two neutron capture lines at ³He and ¹H (f_20.58/f_2.223). In particular we consider the opportunity to obtain n(³He)/n(¹H) ratio during solar flares and using high-energy gamma-emission studying, based on the satellite data. Possible interpretation of spectral features observed during the January 20, 2005 solar flare is discussed. Preliminary analysis of energy spectrum in the band of 2–21 MeV gives n(³He)/n(¹H) ∼ 8 × 10⁻⁴ for January 20, 2005 solar flare.     

Challenges to cosmic ray modeling: From beyond the solar wind termination shock

Voyager 1 crossed the solar wind termination shock on December 16, 2004 at a distance of 94 AU from the Sun, to become the first spacecraft to explore the termination shock region and to enter the heliosheath, the final heliospheric frontier. By the end of 2006, Voyager 1 will be at ∼101 AU, with Voyager 2 at ∼81 AU and still approaching the termination shock. Both spacecraft have been observing the modulation of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays since their launch in 1977. The recent observations close to or inside the heliosheath have provided several interesting ‘surprises’ with subsequent theoretical and modeling challenges. Examples are: what does the modulation of galactic cosmic rays amount to in this region?; how do the anomalous cosmic rays get accelerated and modulated?; why are there ‘breaks’ in the power-law slopes of the spectra of accelerated particles? Several numerical models have been applied to most of these topics over the years and comprehensive global predictions have been made the past decade, thought to be based on reasonable assumptions about the termination shock and the heliosheath. Examples of these predictions and assumptions are concisely discussed within the context of the main observed features of cosmic rays in the vicinity of the termination shock, ending with a discussion of some of the issues and challenges to cosmic ray modeling in particular.     

Spatial distribution of TEC across India in 2005: Seasonal asymmetries and IRI prediction

Total electron content measured simultaneously at 10 locations over India during the low solar activity year 2005 is used to examine the temporal and spatial asymmetries and also to assess the predictability of the International Reference Ionosphere in respect of the observed asymmetrical distribution. The stations are distributed in latitude along 77°E and in longitude along 23°N forming a meridional and a zonal chain respectively. A longitudinal gradient positive towards east was observed in the daytime hours of equinox and summer. Equinoctial asymmetry was prevalent across India during this year. Within the crest and equator, winter anomaly has been observed. It is found that IRI 2012 (with Ne Quick option, URSI coefficients) is unable to fully capture the temporal variation and spatial gradients of the ionization density in the Indian sector during 2005. The amount of offset between the model and measurement varies with local time and location.     

The solar-terrestrial event of 23 February 1956

The solar flare of 23 February 1956 and the resulting geophysical disturbance ranks as one of the most remarkable solar-terrestrial events of the twentieth century. It sparked many papers and has seldom been equalled. Fifty years after the International Geophysical Year, it seems timely to review the observations of the event from today’s perspective, and to draw on the recollections of scientists who were active at the time.     

Fluctuations of cosmic rays and IMF in the vicinity of interplanetary shocks

Fluctuations of cosmic rays and interplanetary magnetic field upstream of interplanetary shocks are studied using data of ground-based polar neutron monitors as well as measurements of energetic particles and solar wind plasma parameters aboard the ACE spacecraft. It is shown that coherent cosmic ray fluctuations in the energy range from 10 keV to 1 GeV are often observed at the Earth’s orbit before the arrival of interplanetary shocks. This corresponds to an increase of solar wind turbulence level by more than the order of magnitude upstream of the shock. We suggest a scenario where the cosmic ray fluctuation spectrum is modulated by fast magnetosonic waves generated by flux of low-energy cosmic rays which are reflected and/or accelerated by an interplanetary shock.     

A Review of Density Holes Upstream of Earth's Bow Shock

Larmor size transient structures with density depletions as large as 99% of ambient solar wind density levels occur commonly upstream of Earth＇s collisionless bow shock. These ＂density holes＂ have a me...     

Solar and magnetic control on night-time enhancement in TEC near the crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

The ionospheric Total Electron Content (TECs), derived by dual frequency signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) recorded near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Bhopal (23.2°N, 77.4°E, Geomagnetic 14.2°N) were analyzed for the period of January, 2005 to February, 2008. The work deals with monthly, diurnal, solar and magnetic activity variations on night-time enhancement in TEC. From a total of 157 night-time enhancements, 75 occur during pre-midnight and 82 post-midnight hours. The occurrence of night-time enhancement in TEC is utmost during summer months, followed by equinox and winter months. The occurrence of night-time enhancement in TEC decreases with increase in solar and magnetic activities. We observed that peak size and half amplitude duration are positively correlated, while time of occurrence of night-time enhancement in TEC and time of peak enhancement are negatively correlated with solar activity. The peak size, half amplitude duration, time of peak enhancement and time of occurrence of night-time enhancement in TEC shows negative correlation with magnetic activity. The results have been compared with the earlier ones and discussed in terms of possible source mechanism responsible for the enhancement at anomaly crest region.