基于Wiener过程的载人飞船热控泵寿命预测

载人飞船热控制循环泵(以下简称热控泵)属于高可靠性航天产品,在试验和使用中出现的寿命失效数据极少,采用传统的基于大样本寿命数据的可靠性分析方法难以满足工程要求。首先根据热控泵的试验数据和退化失效机理,确定关键性能参数为扬程和功率,采用带有正向漂移的Wiener过程拟合这两项性能的退化数据,建立性能退化轨道模型,并用随机加权方法解决模型参数估计时的小子样问题;根据退化失效的定义确定热控泵的寿命分布模型,与传统寿命分布模型不同的是,分布模型中的参数具有明确的物理含义;最后根据试验数据对热控泵的寿命进行预测,验证方法的有效性。     

Solar flux effects on equatorial ionization anomaly and total electron content over Brazil: Observational results versus IRI representations

The F layer critical frequency (foF2) as measured by Digisondes in the equatorial and low latitude locations in Brazil is analyzed to investigate the seasonal and solar flux controls of the intensity of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the equinoctial month of March. The analysis also included the total electron content (TEC) as measured by a GPS receiver operated at the EIA crest location. The foF2 data set covered a period of large solar flux variation from 1996 to 2003, while the GPS TEC data was for a period in 2002–2003 when the solar flux parameter F10.7 underwent large variations, permitting in both cases an examination of the solar flux effects on these parameters. The seasonal variation pattern in TEC shows a maximum in equinoctial months and a minimum in June solstice, with similar variations for foF2. The solar flux dependence of the TEC is a maximum during equinoxes, especially for post-sunset TEC values at times when the latitudinal distribution is controlled by the equatorial evening plasma fountain processes. Significant variations with local time are found in the degree of solar flux dependence for both the TEC and EIA. The EIA intensity shows large dependence on F10.7 during post-sunset to midnight hours. These results are discussed in comparison with their corresponding IRI representations.     

Cosmic radiation exposure of aircraft occupants on simulated high-latitude flights during solar proton events from 1 January 1986 through 1 January 2008

From 1 January 1986 through 1 January 2008, GOES satellites recorded 170 solar proton events. For 169 of these events, we estimated effective and equivalent dose rates and doses of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar cosmic radiation (SCR), received by aircraft occupants on simulated high-latitude flights. Dose rate and dose estimates that follow are for altitudes 30, 40, 50, and 60 kft, in that order.     

利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.      

New flare model using recent measurements of the solar ultraviolet irradiance

The solar photon output from the Sun, which was once thought to be constant, varies considerably over time scales from seconds during solar flares to years due to the solar cycle. This is especially true in the wavelengths shorter than 190 nm. These variations cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environment on similar time scales, which then affects many things including satellite drag, radio communications, atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions of Earth and other planets, as well as the accuracy in the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model that estimates the solar irradiance at wavelengths from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm resolution with a time cadence of 60 s. This is a high enough temporal resolution to model variations due to solar flares, for which few accurate measurements at these wavelengths exist. This model also captures variations on the longer time scales of solar rotation (days) and solar cycle (years). Daily average proxies used are the 0–4 nm irradiance, the Mg II c/w, F10.7, as well as the 1 nm bins centered at 30.5 nm, 121.5 (Lyman Alpha), and 36.5 nm. The GOES 0.1–0.8 nm irradiance is used as the flare proxy. The FISM algorithms are given, and results and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the FISM estimations agree within the stated uncertainties to the various measurements of the solar Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance.     

The analysis of affections to the cold space calibration source of ChangE-1 payload Microwave Detector

ChangE-1 (CE-1) will be the first satellite of China in lunar orbit. Its Microwave Detector makes real-time and periodical calibration at high and low temperature points. The low brightness temperature calibration source will be provided by calibration antenna which is pointing towards the cold space.     

A new modeling method of solar energetic proton events for ISO specification

Solar energetic protons degrade performance and reliability of spacecraft systems due to single-event effects, total dose effects and displacement damage in electronics components including solar cells. On designing a solar cell panel, a total fluence of solar energetic protons (SEPs) which cause solar cell damage is needed to estimate power loss of the solar cells over mission life. Nowadays a solar panel area of spacecraft is increasing as spacecraft mission life becomes longer (15–18 years). Thus an accurate SEP model is strongly required for the cost-minimum design from the aerospace industry. The SEP model, JPL-91 proposed by Feynman et al., is currently used widely for solar cell designing. However, it is known that the JPL-91 model predicts higher fluences of protons than values actually experienced in space, especially after 7 years on orbit. In addition, the model is based on several assumptions, and also needs Monte-Carlo simulations for calculating fluences. In this study, we propose a new method for modeling SEPs especially focused on solar cell degradation. The newly-proposed method is empirical, which constructs a model based directly upon proton flux measurement data taken by instruments onboard spacecraft. This method has neither assumptions nor dependence on SEP event selection, both of which are needed in JPL-91. The model fluences derived from this method show lower fluences in longer missions compared to JPL-91. This method has been proposed to ISO (International Organization for Standardization) and has been discussed for a new standard SEP model.     

Effects of solar activity variations on the low latitude topside nighttime ionosphere

We have studied the topside nighttime ionosphere of the low latitude region using data obtained from DMSP F15, ROCSAT-1, KOMPSAT-1, and GUVI on the TIMED satellite for the period of 2000–2004, during which solar activity decreased from its maximum. As these satellites operated at different altitudes, we were able to discriminate altitude dependence of several key ionospheric parameters on the level of solar activity. For example, with intensifying solar activity, electron density was seen to increase more rapidly at higher altitudes than at lower altitudes, implying that the corresponding scale height also increased. The density increased without saturation at all observed altitudes when plotted against solar EUV flux instead of F10.7. The results of the present study, as compared with those of previous studies for lower altitudes, indicate that topside vertical scale height increases with altitude and that, when solar activity increases, topside vertical scale height increases more rapidly at higher altitudes than at lower altitudes. Temperature also increased more rapidly at higher altitudes than at lower altitudes as solar activity increased. In addition, the height of the F2 peak was seen to increase with increasing solar activity, along with the oxygen ion fraction measured above the F2 peak. These results confirm that the topside ionosphere rises and expands with increasing solar activity.     

基于模糊神经网络的软件可靠性早期预计方法

在基于模糊神经网络的基础上,提出了一种新的软件可靠性早期预计方法.通过分析软件缺陷产生的原因,给出了导致软件缺陷产生的因素.同时,深入讨论了软件可靠性早期预计的建模方法.在此基础上,利用模糊神经网络建立了软件可靠性早期预计的模型,并且给出了具体的步骤.      

利用频谱分析确定空间目标太阳翼定向模式

分析对比了空间目标与可控飞行器轨道确定的不同,论述了太阳翼定向模式的不同对轨道运动特性的影响。通过地面站的测距与测角数据,推算出测量数据的地心距频谱。假定一种太阳翼定向模式,利用测量数据进行轨道确定,利用定轨数据计算地心距频谱并与测量数据的频谱比对,由此可确定太阳翼定向模式。利用数值仿真对近地太阳同步轨道和地球静止轨道两种情况进行了验证,仿真结果表明该思路和方法是有效的。