Solar cycle variation of “killer” electrons at geosynchronous orbit and electron flux correlation with the solar wind parameters and ULF waves intensity

To construct models for hazard prediction from radiation belt particles to satellite electronics, one should know temporal behavior of the particle fluxes. We analyzed 11-year variation in relativistic electron flux (E>2 MeV) at geosynchronous orbit using measurements made by GOES satellites during the 23rd sunspot cycle. As it is believed that electron flux enhancements are connected with the high-speed solar wind streams and ULF or/and VLF activity in the magnetosphere, we studied also solar cycle changes in rank order cross-correlation of the outer radiation belt electron flux with the solar wind speed and both interplanetary and on-ground wave intensity. Data from magnetometers and plasma sensors onboard the spacecraft ACE and WIND, as well as magnetic measurements at two mid-latitude diametrically opposite INTERMAGNET observatories were used. Results obtained show that average value of relativistic electron flux at the decay and minimum phases of solar activity is one order higher than the flux during maximum sunspot activity. Of all solar wind parameters, only solar wind speed variation has significant correlation with changes in relativistic electron flux, taking the lead over the latter by 2 days. Variations in ULF amplitude advance changes in electron flux by 3 days. Results of the above study may be of interest for model makers developing forecast algorithms.     

Solar flare forecasting model supported with artificial neural network techniques

Nowadays operational models for solar activity forecasting are still based on the statistical relationship between solar activity and solar magnetic field evolution. In order to set up this relationship, many parameters have been proposed to be the measures. Conventional measures are based on the sunspot group classification which provides limited information from sunspots. For this reason, new measures based on solar magnetic field observations are proposed and a solar flare forecasting model supported with an artificial neural network is introduced. This model is equivalent to a person with a long period of solar flare forecasting experience.     

Self-similar stochastic processes in solar wind turbulence

Solar wind data is used to estimate the autocorrelation function for the stochastic process x(τ) = y(t + τ) − y(t), considered as a function of τ, where y(t) is any one of the quantities B²(t), n_p(t)V²(t), or n_p(t). This process has stationary increments and a variance that increases like a power law τ^2γ where γ is the scaling exponent. For the kinetic energy density and the proton density the scaling exponent is close to the Kolmogorov value γ = 1/3, for the magnetic energy density it is slightly larger. In all three cases, it is shown that the autocorrelation function estimated from the data agrees with the theoretical autocorrelation function for a self-similar stochastic process with stationary increments and finite variance. This is far from proof, but it suggests that these stochastic processes may be self-similar for time scales in the small scale inertial range of the turbulence, that is, from approximately 10 to 10³ s.     

Geomagnetic activity associated with magnetic clouds,magnetic cloud-like structures and interplanetary shocks for the period 1995–2003

Using nine years (1995–2003) of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data, solar sunspot number, and geomagnetic activity data, we investigated the geomagnetic activity associated with magnetic clouds (MCs), magnetic cloud-like structures (MCLs), and interplanetary shock waves. Eighty-two MCs and one hundred and twenty-two MCLs were identified by using solar wind and magnetic field data from the WIND mission, and two hundred and sixty-one interplanetary shocks were identified over the period of 1995–2003 in the vicinity of Earth. It is found that MCs are typically more geoeffective than MCLs or interplanetary shocks. The occurrence frequency of MCs is not well correlated with sunspot number. By contrast, both occurrence frequency of MCLs and sudden storm commencements (SSCs) are well correlated with sunspot number.     

Dynamics of a spacecraft and normalization around Lagrangian points in the Neptune–Triton system

The problem of a spacecraft orbiting the Neptune–Triton system is presented. The new ingredients in this restricted three body problem are the Neptune oblateness and the high inclined and retrograde motion of Triton. First we present some interesting simulations showing the role played by the oblateness on a Neptune’s satellite, disturbed by Triton. We also give an extensive numerical exploration in the case when the spacecraft orbits Triton, considering Sun, Neptune and its planetary oblateness as disturbers. In the plane a × I (a = semi-major axis, I = inclination), we give a plot of the stable regions where the massless body can survive for thousand of years. Retrograde and direct orbits were considered and as usual, the region of stability is much more significant for the case of direct orbit of the spacecraft (Triton’s orbit is retrograde). Next we explore the dynamics in a vicinity of the Lagrangian points. The Birkhoff normalization is constructed around L₂, followed by its reduction to the center manifold. In this reduced dynamics, a convenient Poincaré section shows the interplay of the Lyapunov and halo periodic orbits, Lissajous and quasi-halo tori as well as the stable and unstable manifolds of the planar Lyapunov orbit. To show the effect of the oblateness, the planar Lyapunov family emanating from the Lagrangian points and three-dimensional halo orbits are obtained by the numerical continuation method.     

Solar Models with Non-Standard Chemical Composition

The OPAL monochromatic opacity tables are used to evaluate the impact of a non-standard chemical composition on solar models. A calibrated solar model with consistent diffusion including the effect of radiative forces and ionization on drift velocities is presented. It is shown that surface abundances are predicted to change slightly more than in traditional solar models where these refinements are not included. All elements included in the model settle at similar rates which is reflected in the relative variation in surface abundances ranging from 7.5% for calcium to 8.8% for argon. The structural difference between the consistent model and the traditional model is small, with a maximum effect of 0.3% for the isothermal sound speed at the base of the convection zone. The settling of CNO is only marginally affected. Opacity profiles have also been calculated with varying abundances for volatile elements, for which the abundances are poorly known, and other selected elements. It is shown that if one allows a 10% variation of these elements individually one can expect a peak Rosseland mean opacity variation of 3% for oxygen, a little less 2% for Si and Ne, and around 1% for Mg and S in the radiative zone. Other light metals and volatile elements have no significant impact on the opacity. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Propagation and interaction of interplanetary transient disturbances. Numerical simulations

We study the heliocentric evolution of ICME-like disturbances and their associated transient forward shocks (TFSs) propagating in the interplanetary (IP) medium comparing the solutions of a hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models using the ZEUS-3D code [Stone, J.M., Norman, M.L., 1992. Zeus-2d: a radiation magnetohydrodynamics code for astrophysical flows in two space dimensions. i – the hydrodynamic algorithms and tests. Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 80, 753–790]. The simulations show that when a fast ICME and its associated IP shock propagate in the inner heliosphere they have an initial phase of about quasi-constant propagation speed (small deceleration) followed, after a critical distance (deflection point), by an exponential deceleration. By combining white light coronograph and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements of ICMEs propagating within 1 AU [Manoharan, P.K., 2005. Evolution of coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere: a study using white-light and scintillation images. Solar Physics 235 (1–2), 345–368], such a critical distance and deceleration has already been inferred observationally. In addition, we also address the interaction between two ICME-like disturbances: a fast ICME 2 overtaking a previously launched slower ICME 1. After interaction, the leading ICME 1 accelerates and the tracking ICME 2 decelerates and both ICMEs tend to arrive at 1 AU having similar speeds. The 2-D HD and MHD models show similar qualitative results for the evolution and interaction of these disturbances in the IP medium.     

Coronal radio-sounding detection of a CME during the 1997 Galileo solar conjunction

Frequency fluctuations of the Galileo S-band radio signal were recorded nearly continuously during the spacecraft’s solar conjunction from December 1996 to February 1997. A strong propagating disturbance, most probably associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), was detected on 7 February when the radio ray path proximate point was on the west solar limb at about 54 solar radii from the Sun. The CME passage through the line of sight is characterized by a significant increase in the fluctuation intensity of the recorded frequency and by an increase in the plasma speed from about 234 km s⁻¹ up to about 755 km s⁻¹. These velocity estimates are obtained from a correlation analysis of frequency fluctuations recorded simultaneously at two widely-separated ground stations. The density turbulence power spectrum is found to steepen behind the CME front. The Galileo radio-sounding data are compared with SOHO/LASCO observations of the CME in the corona and with WIND spacecraft data near the Earth’s orbit.     

Interplanetary Physics Research in China:2006—2008

This brief report summarized the latest advances of the interplanetary physics research in China during the period of 2006—2007,made independently by Chinese space physicists and through international collaboration.The report covers all aspects of the interplanetary physics,including theoretical studies,numerical simulation and data analysis.