Results from the ESA SREM monitors and comparison with existing radiation belt models

The Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) is a simple particle detector developed for wide application on ESA satellites. It measures high-energy protons and electrons of the space environment with a 20° angular resolution and limited spectral information. Of the ten SREMs that have been manufactured, four have so far flown. The first model on STRV-1c functioned well until an early spacecraft failure. The other three are on-board, the ESA spacecraft INTEGRAL, ROSETTA and PROBA-1. Another model is flying on GIOVE-B, launched in April 2008 with three L-2 science missions to follow: both Herschel and Planck in 2008, and GAIA in 2011). The diverse orbits of these spacecraft and the common calibration of the monitors provides a unique dataset covering a wide range of B-L* space, providing a direct comparison of the radiation levels in the belts at different locations, and the effects of geomagnetic shielding. Data from the PROBA/SREM and INTEGRAL/IREM are compared with existing radiation belt models.     

Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC

Solar activity prediction services started in 1960’s in National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC). As one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China) was set up in 1990’s. Solar Activity Prediction Center (SAPC), as one of the four sub-centers of RWC-China, is located in NAOC. Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecast of solar activities. Nowadays, certain prediction models, such as solar X-ray flare model, solar proton event model, solar 10 cm radio flux model, have been established for the practical prediction services. Recently, more and more physical analyses are introduced in the studies of solar activity prediction, such as the magnetic properties of solar active regions and magnetic structure of solar atmosphere. Besides traditional statistics algorithms, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence techniques, such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, are employed in the establishment of forecast models. A Web-based integrated platform for solar activity data sharing and forecast distribution is under construction.     

Energy conversion of the flare due to direct electric fields from the sheared reconnection

In this paper we present a new mechanism of the main energy conversion of the solar flare. Since a flare inducing prominence (flux tube) rises V_z ? 300 km s⁻¹, the plasmas below it cannot continuously eject with Alfvén speeds of V_A = 3000 km s⁻¹ but probably with V_z ≈ ±100 km s⁻¹. Plasma up and downflows with V_A will within a short duration be blocked between the chromosphere where reconnected flux tubes are piling up, and the slowly rising flux rope. Hence the Petschek slow shock mechanism is difficult to be realized as a major energy converting mechanism.     

太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(I)

采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F10.7中期预报研究. 预报试验和误差分析结果表明, 在太阳活动水平较低、F10.7 的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高, 具有较为理想的预报效果, 但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想. 这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F10.7的27天周期性特征, 对F10.7中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出, 自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当.     

太阳宁静区磁漏斗结构的扩展特征

通过对观测的光球纵向磁场进行势场外推, 重构了一个太阳宁静区光球以上的磁场结构. 结果显示, 在20 Mm 以下, 开放磁力线呈现多个明显的小磁漏斗结构, 这些小磁漏斗结构随高度扩展, 并且在20 Mm 左右融合成大的漏斗结构. 通过系统地研究磁漏斗结构横截面积随高度的变化趋势, 发现太阳宁静区磁漏斗结构的截面积随高度近似线性扩展, 磁漏斗结构在较低高度上(<20Mm) 扩展的速度比在较高高度上 (>20Mm) 扩展的速度要快. 这一结果对太阳风起源和磁环中物质流动的二维数值模拟具有重要的意义. 同时还发现, 闭合磁力线的数目随高度以指数函数的形式减少.     

太阳宁静及耀斑期间1AU附近等离子体轫致辐射研究

在太空等离子体中,尤其在等离子体内部磁场较弱时,轫致辐射是等离子体能量损失的主要机制.本文对太阳宁静及耀斑期间1 AU处等离子体轫致辐射计算表明,等离子体辐射强度I_f的变化与辐射的电磁波频率有直接的关系.当辐射频率f接近于等离子体频率f_pe时,辐射强度显著增大.随着电磁波辐射频率的增大,辐射强度随频率增大作缓慢对数下降.辐射亮温T_b与等离子体电子温度T_e介质光深成正比. T_b与I_f随辐射频率变化的整体趋势一致.在相同的辐射频率情况下,太阳宁静期间I_f值、T_b值低于太阳耀斑期间I_f值、T_b值.     

太阳微波爆发动态频谱仪

介绍了北京天文台已投入观测的1.0—20GHz,2.6—3.8GHz太阳射电频谱仪及1999年投入观测的5.2—76GHz太阳射电频谱仪。它们是第23周太阳活动峰年我国太阳物理界的重要观测设备已投入观测的频谱仪获得不同类型的太阳射电爆发资料分别为171个和146个,这些事件在时间和频率上有丰富的幅度和结构的变化。不同太阳射电爆发反映太阳大气不同高度上耀斑的时间和空间的演化过程,为研究不同大气高度中耀斑物理动力学过程、能量释放、粒子加速提供了更多的依据。     

太阳电子事件粒子源区的位置

对ISEE-3的引个太阳电子事件资料,进行了系统地分析。通过Saha平衡模型分别计算了高Fe事件和贫Fe事件源区的平衡温度大小,指出两类事件粒子源区不相重合,高Fe事件的粒子源区位于高色球层,贫Fe事件粒子源区在色球层-日冕之间的过渡区。对高Fe事件和贫Fe事件的形成作了初步的设想。     

神经网络方法在太阳质子事件短期预报中的应用

在大量统计结果的基础上,深入研究了太阳质子事件预报机理．总结了质子事件爆发与太阳活动区面积、位置、McIntosh结构、磁结构以及前两天活动区爆发耀斑事件数目之间的关系．然后,在神经网络的基础上建立了太阳质子事件短期预报模型,并对2000年以后12个未参加训练的样本进行测试,结果对事件预报的准确率为83％．此外,我们还利用该模型对2002年1-4月发生的几次质子事件进行了预报试验,结果发现,这期间发生的6次事件都被预报．其中3次质子事件系统预报提前了3天,两次事件预报提前了2天,一次事件提前1天预报．     

Validate the IRI2007 model by the COSMIC slant TEC data during the extremely solar minimum of 2008

During 2008, the solar activity is extremely low. The satellite observations show that the ionospheric height and electron density is much lower than the predictions by the international reference ionosphere (IRI) model. In this paper, we compared the slant total electron content (TEC) observed by the COSMIC satellites during 2008 with the IRI model results. It is found that the IRI model with IRI2001 and IRI2001 Cor. topside options will always overestimate the electron density in both lower and higher altitudes. But the rest two topside options (NeQuick, and TTS) tend to overestimate the electron density in the F layer and underestimate it in the topside altitudes. The switch altitude between overestimation and underestimation and the latitude-local time distribution of the model deviation depend on the topside option. The current investigation might be useful for the model improvement as well as data assimilation work based on the IRI model and the LEO TEC data.