Properties of solar X-ray flares and proton event forecasting

X-ray flares and acceleration processes are in one complex of sporadic solar events (together with CMEs, radio bursts, magnetic field dissipation and reconnection). This supposes the connection (if not physical, but at least statistical) between characteristics of the solar energetic proton events and flares. The statistical analysis indicates that probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends heavily on the flare importance and their heliolongitude. These relations may be used for elaboration of the forecasting models, which allow us to calculate probability of the solar proton events from the X-ray observations.     

Effect of “Noisy” sun conditions on aircrew radiation exposure

In computer codes used to estimate the aircrew radiation exposure from galactic cosmic radiation, a quiet sun model is usually assumed. A revised computer code (PCAIRE ver. 8.0f) is used to calculate the impact of noisy sun conditions on aircrew radiation exposure. The revised code incorporates the effect of solar storm activity, which can perturb the geomagnetic field lines, altering cutoff rigidities and hence the shielding capability of the Earth’s magnetic field. The effect of typical solar storm conditions on aircrew radiation exposure is shown to be minimal justifying the usual assumptions.     

Sensitivity studies of the deployment of a square inflatable solar sail with vanes

This paper summarizes the results of numerical experiments to determine the sensitivity of the final attitude of an inflatable solar sail with vanes after deployment to various parameters affecting the deployment process. These parameters are: in- and out-of-plane asymmetries during deployment, length inflation profile, and vane deployment failures. We show how robust the sail deployment is to geometric asymmetries before a 35° off-Sun angle is reached. Differential delays in the time to inflate the booms and a boom sweep-back angle affect the stability favorably. Adjacent vane failures to deploy affect the stability unfavorably, while the failure of opposing vanes is acceptable. Realistic boom length rate profiles obtained during ground tests are used in the simulation showing that failing adjacent vanes in conjunction with initial inflation delays in adjacent booms represent the worst case. We also demonstrate that by feeding back attitude and attitude rate measurements so that a corrective action is taken during the deployment, the final attitude can be maintained very close to the initial attitude, thus mitigating the attitude changes incurred during deployment.     

Study of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy

We demonstrate that the general features of the radial and azimuthal components of the anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays can be studied by the harmonic analysis method using data from an individual neutron monitor with cut off rigidity <5 GV. In particular, we study the characteristics of the 27-day (solar rotation period) variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy, solar wind velocity, interplanetary magnetic field strength and sunspot number. The amplitudes of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy are greater, and the phases more clearly established, in A > 0 polarity periods than in A < 0 polarity periods at times of minimum solar activity. The phases of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity and anisotropy are opposite with respect to the similar changes of the solar wind velocity in A > 0 polarity periods. No significant dependence of the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy on the tilt angle of the heliospheric neutral sheet is found. Daily epicyclegrams obtained by Chree’s method show that the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy during A > 0 polarity periods follow elliptical paths with the major axes oriented approximately along the interplanetary magnetic field. The paths are more irregular during A < 0 polarity periods.     

The coronal dynamics imagers for the KuaFu mission

The Space Weather Explorer – KuaFu mission will provide simultaneous, long-term, and synoptic observations of the complete chain of disturbances from the solar atmosphere to the geospace. KuaFu-A (located at the L1 liberation point) includes Coronal Dynamics Imagers composed of a Lyman-α coronagraph (from 1.15 to 2.7 solar radii) and a white light coronagraph (out to 15 solar radii), in order to identify the initial sources of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their acceleration profiles. The difficulty of observing the lower corona should not be underestimated since instrumental stray light remains a critical issue in the visible because of the low contrast of the corona with respect to the Sun. Observing the corona in the Lyman-α line is a valid alternative to white light observations. This approach takes advantage of both the intrinsic higher contrast of the corona with respect to the solar disk in this line compared to the visible, and the absence of F-corona at 121.6 nm. Furthermore, it has been convincingly shown that the coronal structures seen in Lyman-α correspond to those seen in the visible and which result from Thomson scattering of the coronal ionized gas. This is because the plasma is still collisional in the lower corona so that the hydrogen neutral atoms are coupled to the protons. A classical, all-reflecting internally-occulted Lyot coronagraph is required so as to preserve the image quality down to the inner limit of the field-of-view. A narrow band interference filter located in a collimated beam allows isolating the Lyman-α line. The visible coronagraph will adopt the approach of a single instrument having a large field-of-view extending from 2.5 to 15 solar radii. Such a design is based on refractive externally-occulted coronagraphs built for recent past missions, essentially the LASCO-C2 and C3 instruments and the SECCHI/COR 2 of the STEREO mission, which is itself a combination of the C2 and C3 instruments.     

Scientific requirements for future spatially resolved white-light and broad-band high-cadence observations of the Sun

Several important issues are open in the field of solar variability and they wait their solution which up to now was attempted using critical ground-based instrumentations. However, accurate photometric data are attainable only from space. New observational material should be collected with high enough spatial and spectral resolution, covering the whole visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum as well infrared and ultraviolet to reconstruct the total solar irradiance: (1) the absolute contributions of different small-scale structural entities of the solar atmosphere from the white light flares and from micro-flares are still poorly known; (2) we do not know the absolute contributions of different structural elements of the solar atmosphere to the long-term and to the cyclic variations of the solar irradiance, including features of the polar regions of the Sun; (3) the variations of the chromospheric magnetic network are still poorly evaluated; (4) only scarce information is available about the spectral variations of different small-scale features in the high photosphere. Variability of the Sun in white light can be studied with higher spectral, spatial and time resolution using space-born telescopes, which are more appropriate for this purpose than ground based observatories because of better seeing conditions, no interference of the terrestrial atmosphere and a more precise calibration procedure. Scientific requirements for such observations and the possible experimental tools proposed for their solution. Suggested solar studies have broader astrophysical importance.     

The method for predicting solar proton events

Dynamic processes in the interplanetary space have been investigated using time variations in time parameters of the cosmic-ray rigidity spectrum. Change of heliosphere electromagnetic characteristics has been found out to precede sporadic phenomena on the Sun. In particular, it is shown that sporadic phenomena are followed by generation of local polarization electric fields, decrease of the magnetic-field strength in small-scale heliospheric structures, and increase of the potential difference between the pole and the plane of the ecliptic. These features allow prediction of solar proton events in advance (from several hours to several tens of hours) with a high degree of confirmation.     

Statistical properties of the most powerful solar and heliospheric disturbances

We present and discuss here the first version of a data base of extreme solar and heliospheric events. The data base contains now 87 extreme events mostly since 1940. An event is classified as extreme if one of the three critical parameters passed a lower limit. The critical parameters were the X-ray flux (parameter R), solar proton flux (parameter S) and geomagnetic disturbance level (parameter G). We find that the five strongest extreme events based on four variables (X-rays SEP, Dst, Ap) are completely separate except for the October 2003 event which is one the five most extreme events according to SEP, Dst and Ap. This underlines the special character of the October 2003 event, making it unique within 35 years. We also find that the events based on R and G are rather separate, indicating that the location of even extreme flares on the solar disk is important for geomagnetic effects. We also find that S = 3 events are not extreme in the same sense as R > 3 and G > 3 events, while S = 5 events are missing so far. This suggests that it might be useful to rescale the classification of SEP fluxes.     

Intermediate-term periodicities in relativistic solar electron fluences during solar cycles 22 and 23

In this paper, we have investigated the intermediate-term periodicities of the relativistic (E > 10 MeV) solar electron flares measured by IMP-8 satellite of NASA for the time period of 1986–2001. This period of investigation includes the entire solar cycle 22; ascending, maximum and a part of descending phase of the current solar cycle 23. To determine accurately the occurrence rate of electron flux, we have employed three different spectral decomposition techniques, viz. fast Fourier transformation (FFT); maximum entropy method (MEM) and Lomb–Scargle periodogram analysis method. For solar cycle 22, in the low frequency range, power spectrum analysis exhibits statistically significant periodicities at ∼706, ∼504 and ∼392 days. In the intermediate frequency range, we have found a series of significant periodicities ∼294, ∼221, ∼153, ∼86, ∼73 and ∼66 days. For short term, periodicities of ∼21–23, ∼31 and ∼37 days were found in power spectrum. When solar cycle 23 is considered the significant periodicities are ∼20, ∼23, ∼29, ∼39, ∼54, ∼63, ∼118, ∼133 and ∼154 days. These results provide evidence that the best known Rieger period (∼153 days), appeared in the high energetic electron flux data for cycle 22 and also likely during maxima of cycle 23. The existence of these periodicities has been discussed in the light of earlier results.