Structure of the Program of Short-term Prediction of Powerful Solar Flares

Input data of the system are two-dimensional images and one-dimensional distributions of total and polarized solar emission at 5.2 cm wavelength obtained with SSRT. Together with photoheliograms, magnetograms, Hα-filtergrams and characteristics of active regions received from other sources, they form the initial database. The first stage includes superimposing the images, identifying microwave sources with active regions, assigning NOAA numbers to the sources, and determining for each active region the heliolatitude, extent, and inclination angle of the group's axis to the equator. These data are used to calculate the boundaries of longitude zones for each active region. A next stage involves determining the brightness temperatures of microwave sources less than the polarization distribution, the degree of polarization, and microwave emission flux, as well as calculating the parameters of microwave sources. Each parameter is assigned its own value of the weight factor, and the sum of values is used to draw the conclusion about the flare occurrence probability in each active region and on the Sun in general.      

Fundamental (f) oscillations in a magnetically coupled solar interior-atmosphere system – An analytical approach

Solar fundamental (f) acoustic mode oscillations are investigated analytically in a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. The model consists of three layers in planar geometry, representing the solar interior, the magnetic atmosphere, and a transitional layer sandwiched between them. Since we focus on the fundamental mode here, we assume the plasma is incompressible. A horizontal, canopy-like, magnetic field is introduced to the atmosphere, in which degenerated slow MHD waves can exist. The global (f-mode) oscillations can couple to local atmospheric Alfvén waves, resulting, e.g., in a frequency shift of the oscillations. The dispersion relation of the global oscillation mode is derived, and is solved analytically for the thin-transitional layer approximation and for the weak-field approximation. Analytical formulae are also provided for the frequency shifts due to the presence of a thin transitional layer and a weak atmospheric magnetic field. The analytical results generally indicate that, compared to the fundamental value ($\omega =\sqrt{\mathit{gk}}$), the mode frequency is reduced by the presence of an atmosphere by a few per cent. A thin transitional layer reduces the eigen-frequencies further by about an additional hundred microhertz. Finally, a weak atmospheric magnetic field can slightly, by a few percent, increase the frequency of the eigen-mode. Stronger magnetic fields, however, can increase the f-mode frequency by even up to ten per cent, which cannot be seen in observed data. The presence of a magnetic atmosphere in the three-layer model also introduces non-permitted propagation windows in the frequency spectrum; here, f-mode oscillations cannot exist with certain values of the harmonic degree. The eigen-frequencies can be sensitive to the background physical parameters, such as an atmospheric density scale-height or the rate of the plasma density drop at the photosphere. Such information, if ever observed with high-resolution instrumentation and inverted, could help to gain further insight into solar magnetic structures by means of solar magneto-seismology, and could provide further insight into the role of magnetism in solar oscillations.     

Observation of a 27-day solar signature in noctilucent cloud altitude

Previous studies have identified solar 27-day signatures in several parameters in the Mesosphere/Lower thermosphere region, including temperature and Noctilucent cloud (NLC) occurrence frequency. In this study we report on a solar 27-day signature in NLC altitude with peak-to-peak variations of about 400?m. We use SCIAMACHY limb-scatter observations from 2002 to 2012 to detect NLCs. The superposed epoch analysis method is applied to extract solar 27-day signatures. A 27-day signature in NLC altitude can be identified in both hemispheres in the SCIAMACHY dataset, but the signature is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere. The solar signature in NLC altitude is found to be in phase with solar activity and temperature for latitudes $?70°$N. We provide a qualitative explanation for the positive correlation between solar activity and NLC altitude based on published model simulations.     

一种空间超大型可展开柔性聚光器

面向空间太阳能电站（SSPS）对大口径太阳能聚光器的应用需求,提出一种超大型、轻量化、高精度的空间可展开柔性聚光器的新构型。采取理论建模、计算仿真、优化设计相结合的方法对其抛物面构型原理、展开机构折展原理、展开态结构稳定性、动态聚焦精度等问题进行研究,并完成大口径可展开柔性聚光器的设计。提出了基于多层弹性花瓣镜体复合结构的大口径柔性聚光器优化创新设计方法。由于采用薄板柔索结构,本聚光器具有精度高、展收体积比大、质量轻、在线控制简单等优点,为空间太阳能电站千米级聚光器提供一种创新设计方法。     

Attitude determination of planetary exploration rovers using solar panels characteristics and accelerometer

In this study, we propose a new attitude determination system, which we call Irradiance-based Attitude Determination (IRAD). IRAD employs the characteristics and geometry of solar panels. First, the sun vector is estimated using data from solar panels including current, voltage, temperature, and the normal vectors of each solar panel. Because these values are obtained using internal sensors, it is easy for rovers to provide redundancy for IRAD. The normal vectors are used to apply to various shapes of rovers. Second, using the gravity vector obtained from an accelerometer, the attitude of a rover is estimated using a three-axis attitude determination method. The effectiveness of IRAD is verified through numerical simulations and experiments that show IRAD can estimate all the attitude angles (roll, pitch, and yaw) within a few degrees of accuracy, which is adequate for planetary explorations.     

姿态角幅值约束下的太阳帆Lissajous轨道保持控制

太阳帆航天器以两姿态角作为轨道控制输入时, 其轨道动力学方程具有非仿射非线性特性. 通过人工平动点处线性化获得的线性系统可完成太阳帆航天器轨道保持控制器的分析与设计. 由于线性近似模型为有误差模型, 存在近似有效范围约束, 表现为轨道高度约束和姿态角幅值约束. 本文研究了姿态角幅值约束对线性近似模型有效性的影响, 通过计算给出满足近似误差要求的姿态角幅值约束. 当控制输入存在幅值约束时, 控制器轨道修正能力受到束缚. 通过研究姿态角幅值约束下的最大允许入轨误差, 设计了最大允许入轨误差下线性二次型调节器(LQR)用于轨道保持控制, 并将控制器应用于太阳帆日地三体系统非线性模型中, 实现了日地人工L₁点Lissajous轨道最大允许入轨误差的控制收敛和良好精度下的轨道保持控制.      

Optimal nodal flyby with near-Earth asteroids using electric sail

The aim of this paper is to quantify the performance of an Electric Solar Wind Sail for accomplishing flyby missions toward one of the two orbital nodes of a near-Earth asteroid. Assuming a simplified, two-dimensional mission scenario, a preliminary mission analysis has been conducted involving the whole known population of those asteroids at the beginning of the 2013 year. The analysis of each mission scenario has been performed within an optimal framework, by calculating the minimum-time trajectory required to reach each orbital node of the target asteroid. A considerable amount of simulation data have been collected, using the spacecraft characteristic acceleration as a parameter to quantify the Electric Solar Wind Sail propulsive performance. The minimum time trajectory exhibits a different structure, which may or may not include a solar wind assist maneuver, depending both on the Sun-node distance and the value of the spacecraft characteristic acceleration. Simulations show that over 60% of near-Earth asteroids can be reached with a total mission time less than 100 days, whereas the entire population can be reached in less than 10 months with a spacecraft characteristic acceleration of 1 mm/s².     

Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component _Bz$B_z$ of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of _Bz$B_z$ with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of _Bz$B_z$ in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%.     

An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle

The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20–24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.     

A comparative sporadic-E layer study between two mid-latitude ionospheric stations

Hourly systematic measurements of the highest frequency reflected by the sporadic-E layer (foEs) recorded from January 1976 to June 2009 at the ionospheric stations of Rome (Italy, 41.8°N, 12.5°E) and Gibilmanna (Italy, 37.9°N, 14.0°E) were considered to carry out a comparative study between the sporadic E layer (Es) over Rome and Gibilmanna. Different statistical analysis were performed taking into account foEs observations near the periods of minimum and maximum solar activity. The results reveal that: (1) independently from the solar activity, Es develops concurrently over extended regions in space, instead of being a spatially limited layer which is transported horizontally by neutral winds over a larger area; especially during summer months, when an Es layer is present at Rome, there is a high probability that an Es layer is also present over Gibilmanna, and vice versa; (2) Es layer lifetimes of 1–5 h were found; in particular, Es layers with lifetimes of 5 h both over Gibilmanna and Rome are observed with highest percentages of occurrence in summer ranging between 80% and 90%, independently from the solar activity; (3) latitudinal effects on Es layer occurrence emerge mostly for low solar activity during winter, equinoctial, and summer months, when Es layers are detected more frequently over Gibilmanna rather than Rome; (4) when the presence of an Es layer over Rome and Gibilmanna is not simultaneous, Es layer appearance both over Rome and Gibilmanna confirms to be a locally confined event, because drifting phenomena from Rome to Gibilmanna or vice versa have not been emphasized.