Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle

The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20–24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.     

Lower ionosphere response to external forcing: A brief review

There are two ways of external forcing of the lower ionosphere, the region below an altitude of about 100 km: (1) From above, which is directly or indirectly of solar origin. (2) From below, which is directly or indirectly of atmospheric origin. The external forcing of solar origin consists of two general factors – solar ionizing radiation variability and space weather. The solar ionization variability consist mainly from the 11-year solar cycle, the 27-day solar rotation and solar flares, strong flares being very important phenomenon in the daytime lower ionosphere due to the enormous increase of the solar X-ray flux resulting in temporal terminating of MF and partly LF and HF radio wave propagation due to heavy absorption of radio waves. Monitoring of the sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs – effects of solar flares in the lower ionosphere) served in the past as an important tool of monitoring the solar activity and its impacts on the ionosphere. Space weather effects on the lower ionosphere consist of many different but often inter-related phenomena, which govern the lower ionosphere variability at high latitudes, particularly at night. The most important space weather phenomenon for the lower ionosphere is strong geomagnetic storms, which affect substantially both the high- and mid-latitude lower ionosphere. As for forcing from below, it is caused mainly by waves in the neutral atmosphere, i.e. planetary, tidal, gravity and infrasonic waves. The most important and most studied waves are planetary and gravity waves. Another channel of the troposphere coupling to the lower ionosphere is through lightning-related processes leading to sprites, blue jets etc. and their ionospheric counterparts. These phenomena occur on very short time scales. The external forcing of the lower ionosphere has observationally been studied using predominantly ground-based methods exploiting in various ways the radio wave propagation, and by sporadic rocket soundings. All the above phenomena are briefly mentioned and some of them are treated in more detail.     

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

Kinetic theory of sheath formation in solar wind plasma

We present a general self-consistent kinetic theory for plasma sheath formation in solar wind plasma. The theory could be applied to anisotropic, as well as to isotropic collisionless plasma without resorting to any simplifications, limitations, or assumptions, such as the necessary existence of a ‘pre-sheath’ region of ions acceleration to ensure the Bohm criterion. The kinetic framework is first applied to sheath formation around an arbitrary oriented planar absorbing surface, charged by solar wind anisotropic plasma, under the condition of negligible photoelectric effect. We then make use of our kinetic approach for the plane geometry in isotropic collisionless plasma, as a particular case of a planar electrode orientation parallel to plasma streaming velocity, also analyzing the sheath structure around spherical and cylindrical absorbing electrodes submerged in isotropic collisionless plasma. Obtained results demonstrate principal differences in spatial charge distributions in sheath regions between spherical or cylindrical electrodes of large size and an unbound planar surface submerged in isotropic plasma. In the case of a planar electrode, we directly compare results obtained in our kinetic and hydrodynamic theories and conventional hydrodynamic theory of plasma sheath formation. The outcome from the present study have direct implications to the analysis of plasma sheath structure and associated distribution in space of charged dust grains, which is relevant to the moon exploration near the optical terminator region or in shadowed craters in the moon.     

The ‘soot line’: Destruction of presolar polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the terrestrial planet-forming region of disks

Interstellar material is highly processed when subjected to the physical conditions that prevail in the inner regions of protoplanetary disks, the potential birthplace of habitable planets. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are abundant in the interstellar medium, and they have also been observed in the disks around young stars, with evidence for some modification in the latter. Using a chemical model developed for sooting flames, we have investigated the chemical evolution of PAHs in warm (1000–2000 K) and oxygen-rich (C/O < 1) conditions appropriate for the region where habitable planets may eventually form. Our study focuses on (1) delineating the conditions under which PAHs will react and (2) identifying the key reaction pathways and reaction products characterizing this chemical evolution. We find that reactions with H, OH and O are the main pathways for destroying PAHs over disk timescale at temperatures greater than about 1000 K. In the process, high abundances of C₂H₂ persist over long timescales due to the kinetic inhibition of reactions that eventually drive the carbon into CO, CO₂ and CH₄. The thermal destruction of PAHs may thus be the cause of the abundant C₂H₂ that has been observed in disks. We propose that protoplanetary disks have a ‘soot line’, within which PAHs are irreversibly destroyed via thermally-driven reactions. The soot line will play an important role, analogous to that of the ‘snow line’, in the bulk carbon content of meteorites and habitable planets.     

非地球同步卫星相对于太阳的几何关系

给出确定非地球同步卫星轨道的日照边界点在天球上投影的位置、太阳光在卫星及其携带仪器各个平面上的投射角以及星载红外分光计内部冷黑体被太阳照射到的轨道部份和概率的计算公式。最后以极轨气象卫星上的红外分光计为例进行了计算。其结果可以提供给分光计某些部份的设计以及极轨气象卫星发射时间的选择作参考。     

Latitudinal variation of the topside electron temperature at different levels of solar activity

A database of electron temperature (T_e) measurements comprising of most of the available satellite measurements in the topside ionosphere is used for studying the solar activity variations of the electron temperature T_e at different latitudes, altitudes, local times and seasons. The T_e data are grouped into three levels of solar activity (low, medium, high) at four altitude ranges, for day and night, and for equinox and solstices. We find that in general T_e changes with solar activity are small and comparable in magnitude with seasonal changes but much smaller than the changes with altitude, latitude, and from day to night. In all cases, except at low altitude during daytime, T_e increases with increasing solar activity. But this increase is not linear as assumed in most empirical T_e models but requires at least a parabolic approximation. At 550 km during daytime negative as well as positive correlation is found with solar activity. Our global data base allows to quantify the latitude range and seasonal conditions for which these correlations occur. A negative correlation with solar activity is found in the invdip latitude range from 20 to 55 degrees during equinox and from 20 degrees onward during winter. In the low latitude (20 to −20 degrees invdip) F-region there is almost no change with solar activity during solstice and a positive correlation during equinox. A positive correlation is also observed during summer from 30 degrees onward.     

Magnetospheric disturbances associated with the 13 December 2006 solar flare and their ionospheric effects over North-East Asia

We present an observational study of magnetospheric and ionospheric disturbances during the December 2006 intense magnetic storm associated with the 4В/Х3.4 class solar flare. To perform the study we utilize the ground data from North–East Asian ionospheric and magnetic observatories (60–72°N, 88–152°E) and in situ measurements from LANL, GOES, Geotail and ACE satellites. The comparative analysis of ionospheric, magnetospheric and heliospheric disturbances shows that the interaction of the magnetosphere with heavily compressed solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field caused the initial phase of the magnetic storm. It was accompanied by the intense sporadic E and F2 layers and the total black-out in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere. During the storm main phase, LANL-97A, LANL 1994_084, LANL 1989-046 and GOES_11 satellites registered a compression of the dayside magnetosphere up to their orbits. In the morning–noon sector the compression was accompanied by an absence of reflections from ionosphere over subauroral ionospheric station Zhigansk (66.8°N, 123.3°E), and a drastic decrease in the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) up to 54% of the quite one over subauroral Yakutsk station (62°N, 129.7°E). At the end of the main phase, these stations registered a sharp foF2 increase in the afternoon sector. At Yakutsk the peak foF2 was 1.9 time higher than the undisturbed one. The mentioned ionospheric disturbances occurred simultaneously with changes in the temperature, density and temperature anisotropy of particles at geosynchronous orbit, registered by the LANL-97A satellite nearby the meridian of ionospheric and magnetic measurements. The whole complex of disturbances may be caused by radial displacement of the main magnetospheric domains (magnetopause, cusp/cleft, plasma sheet) with respect to the observation points, caused by changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure, the field of magnetospheric convection, and rotation of the Earth.     

The role of radial perpendicular diffusion and latitude dependent acceleration along the solar wind termination shock

A numerical model, based on Parker’s transport equation, describing the modulation of anomalous cosmic rays and containing diffusive shock acceleration is applied. The role of radial perpendicular diffusion at the solar wind termination shock, and as the dominant diffusion coefficient in the outer heliosphere, is studied, in particular the role it plays in the effectiveness of the acceleration of anomalous protons and helium when its latitude dependence is changed. It is found that the latitudinal enhancement of radial perpendicular diffusion towards the heliospheric poles and along the termination shock has a prominent effect on the acceleration of these particles. It results in a ‘break’ in the energy spectrum for anomalous protons at ∼6.0 MeV, causing the spectral index to change from E^−1.38 to E^−2.23, but for anomalous helium at ∼3.0 MeV, changing the spectral index from E^−1.38 to E^−2.30. When approaching the simulated TS, the changes in the modulated spectra as they unfold to a ‘steady’ power law shape at energies below 50 MeV are much less prominent as a function of radial distances when radial perpendicular diffusion is increased with heliolatitude.