用行星引潮力预报太阳耀斑的注记

太阳活动与空间坏境紧密相关,大耀斑会引起空间环境的剧烈扰动．太阳活动预报便成空间环境预报的基本依据．太阳预报水平长期以来提高缓慢,太阳物理学家皆有共识,寄希望于物理预报的进展,但举步维艰．近来,“太阳活动的行星潮汐效应”的研究取得了新进展1)[1,2],引潮力可以触发耀斑,从而,利用这类效应发展物理预报技术,呈现良好前景．“太阳耀斑发生率按行星引潮力的分布”已有几个具体结果,表面看来,其间似乎有出人需予澄清．1972年,董土仑和林柏森发现1958－1968年94个质子耀斑的发生率在其目面经度处（活动经度上）技引潮力…     

What Determines the Composition of SEPs in Gradual Events?

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are evidently accelerated by coronal/interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections. This talk addresses the different factors which determine the composition of the accelerated ions. The first factor is the set of available seed populations including the solar wind core and suprathermal tail, remnant impulsive events from preceding solar flares, and remnant gradual events. The second factor is the fractionation of the seed ions by the injection process, that is, what fraction of the ions are extracted by the shock to participate in diffusive shock acceleration. Injection is a controversial topic since it depends on the detailed electromagnetic structure of the shock transition and the transport of ions in these structured fields, both of which are not well understood or determined theoretically. The third factor is fractionation during the acceleration process, due to the dependence of ion transport in the turbulent electromagnetic fields adjacent to the shock on the mass/charge ratio. Of crucial importance in the last two factors is the magnetic obliquity of the shock. The form of the proton-excited hydromagnetic wave spectrum is also important. Finally, more subtle effects on ion composition arise from the superposition of ion contributions over the time history of the shock along the observer’s magnetic flux tube, and the sequence of flux tubes sampled by the observer.     

Geomagnetic activity driven by solar wind turbulence

Within the framework of the solar wind—magnetosphere coupled system, intense perturbations in the solar wind, causing geomagnetic storms and substorms, have been widely studied by means of the so-called coupling parameters. However, remarkable variations in the geomagnetic field occur even in absence of such perturbations. In those conditions, solar wind MHD turbulence might have a role. Recent results have shown that solar wind turbulence can be described not only as a mixture of inward and outward stochastic Alfvénic fluctuations, but includes also advected structures, dominated by an excess of magnetic energy.     

Solar flare forecasting model supported with artificial neural network techniques

Nowadays operational models for solar activity forecasting are still based on the statistical relationship between solar activity and solar magnetic field evolution. In order to set up this relationship, many parameters have been proposed to be the measures. Conventional measures are based on the sunspot group classification which provides limited information from sunspots. For this reason, new measures based on solar magnetic field observations are proposed and a solar flare forecasting model supported with an artificial neural network is introduced. This model is equivalent to a person with a long period of solar flare forecasting experience.     

Self-similar stochastic processes in solar wind turbulence

Solar wind data is used to estimate the autocorrelation function for the stochastic process x(τ) = y(t + τ) − y(t), considered as a function of τ, where y(t) is any one of the quantities B²(t), n_p(t)V²(t), or n_p(t). This process has stationary increments and a variance that increases like a power law τ^2γ where γ is the scaling exponent. For the kinetic energy density and the proton density the scaling exponent is close to the Kolmogorov value γ = 1/3, for the magnetic energy density it is slightly larger. In all three cases, it is shown that the autocorrelation function estimated from the data agrees with the theoretical autocorrelation function for a self-similar stochastic process with stationary increments and finite variance. This is far from proof, but it suggests that these stochastic processes may be self-similar for time scales in the small scale inertial range of the turbulence, that is, from approximately 10 to 10³ s.     

Geomagnetic activity associated with magnetic clouds,magnetic cloud-like structures and interplanetary shocks for the period 1995–2003

Using nine years (1995–2003) of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data, solar sunspot number, and geomagnetic activity data, we investigated the geomagnetic activity associated with magnetic clouds (MCs), magnetic cloud-like structures (MCLs), and interplanetary shock waves. Eighty-two MCs and one hundred and twenty-two MCLs were identified by using solar wind and magnetic field data from the WIND mission, and two hundred and sixty-one interplanetary shocks were identified over the period of 1995–2003 in the vicinity of Earth. It is found that MCs are typically more geoeffective than MCLs or interplanetary shocks. The occurrence frequency of MCs is not well correlated with sunspot number. By contrast, both occurrence frequency of MCLs and sudden storm commencements (SSCs) are well correlated with sunspot number.     

Propagation and interaction of interplanetary transient disturbances. Numerical simulations

We study the heliocentric evolution of ICME-like disturbances and their associated transient forward shocks (TFSs) propagating in the interplanetary (IP) medium comparing the solutions of a hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models using the ZEUS-3D code [Stone, J.M., Norman, M.L., 1992. Zeus-2d: a radiation magnetohydrodynamics code for astrophysical flows in two space dimensions. i – the hydrodynamic algorithms and tests. Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 80, 753–790]. The simulations show that when a fast ICME and its associated IP shock propagate in the inner heliosphere they have an initial phase of about quasi-constant propagation speed (small deceleration) followed, after a critical distance (deflection point), by an exponential deceleration. By combining white light coronograph and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements of ICMEs propagating within 1 AU [Manoharan, P.K., 2005. Evolution of coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere: a study using white-light and scintillation images. Solar Physics 235 (1–2), 345–368], such a critical distance and deceleration has already been inferred observationally. In addition, we also address the interaction between two ICME-like disturbances: a fast ICME 2 overtaking a previously launched slower ICME 1. After interaction, the leading ICME 1 accelerates and the tracking ICME 2 decelerates and both ICMEs tend to arrive at 1 AU having similar speeds. The 2-D HD and MHD models show similar qualitative results for the evolution and interaction of these disturbances in the IP medium.     

Coronal radio-sounding detection of a CME during the 1997 Galileo solar conjunction

Frequency fluctuations of the Galileo S-band radio signal were recorded nearly continuously during the spacecraft’s solar conjunction from December 1996 to February 1997. A strong propagating disturbance, most probably associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), was detected on 7 February when the radio ray path proximate point was on the west solar limb at about 54 solar radii from the Sun. The CME passage through the line of sight is characterized by a significant increase in the fluctuation intensity of the recorded frequency and by an increase in the plasma speed from about 234 km s⁻¹ up to about 755 km s⁻¹. These velocity estimates are obtained from a correlation analysis of frequency fluctuations recorded simultaneously at two widely-separated ground stations. The density turbulence power spectrum is found to steepen behind the CME front. The Galileo radio-sounding data are compared with SOHO/LASCO observations of the CME in the corona and with WIND spacecraft data near the Earth’s orbit.     

Interplanetary Physics Research in China:2006—2008

This brief report summarized the latest advances of the interplanetary physics research in China during the period of 2006—2007,made independently by Chinese space physicists and through international collaboration.The report covers all aspects of the interplanetary physics,including theoretical studies,numerical simulation and data analysis.