太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅰ)

采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当。     

Charging of dust grains by anisotropic solar wind multi-component plasma

In this paper we study the charging process of small grain particles by anisotropic multi-component solar wind plasmas (electrons, protons and heavy ions), versus two-component (electron/proton) plasmas. We are focusing attention on the important characteristics of the charging process, namely the charging time, floating potential and current content as functions of plasma parameters such as He⁺⁺/H⁺ (α/p) number density and T_α/T_p temperature ratios of alpha particles to protons, as well as plasma streaming velocity v₀. Measured statistical properties of solar wind plasma parameters at 1 AU show considerable variations in α/p-temperature ratios from 1 to 10, in α/p-number density ratio from 0.01 to 0.35, as well as in values of streaming velocity v₀ from 200 km/s to 1000 km/s and more. Periods of these variations could last for several days each, leading to significant variability in the charging process, according to newly derived general analytical expressions. Numerical calculations performed for protons/alphas plasmas showed large disparity in the charging characteristics. For example, in anisotropic plasma, grain charging time varies up to 90% depending on α/p-particles temperature and number density ratios, whereas changes in floating potential are up to 40%. In contrast, in isotropic plasma, charging characteristic for grains do not change very much for the same plasma parameters variations, with charging time varying about 12% and floating potential only varying about 4%. It is also shown that in highly anisotropic plasma, with all ballistic electrons and ions, dust grains could not hold their charges, and characteristic discharged time is calculated. We note that the analysis is equally applicable to any sized body immersed in solar wind plasma.     

The heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays: Effects of a latitude dependent solar wind termination shock

Observations made with the two Voyager spacecraft confirmed that the solar wind decelerates to form the heliospheric termination shock and that it has begun its merger with the local interstellar medium. The compression ratio of this shock affects galactic cosmic rays when they enter the heliosphere. Hydrodynamic (HD) models show that the compression ratio can have a significant latitude dependence; with the largest value in the nose direction of the heliosphere, becoming significantly less towards the polar regions. The modulation effects of such large latitude dependence are studied, using a well-established numerical drift and shock modulation model. We focus on computing the modulated spectra for galactic protons with emphasis on the radial and polar gradients in the equatorial plane and at a polar angle of θ = 55°, corresponding to the heliolatitude of Voyager 1. Two sets of solutions are computed and compared each time; with and without a latitude dependence for the compression ratio. All computations are done for the two magnetic field polarity cycles assuming solar minimum conditions. Including the termination shock in the model allows the study of the re-acceleration of galactic protons in the outer heliosphere. We find that for the A < 0 polarity cycle the intensity between ∼200 MeV and ∼1 GeV in the vicinity of the shock in the heliospheric equatorial plane may exceed the local interstellar value specified at the heliopause. Unfortunately, at θ = 55°, the effect is reduced. This seems not possible during an A > 0 cycle because significant modulation is then predicted between the heliopause and the termination shock, depending on how strong global gradient and curvature drifts are in the heliosheath. The overall effect of the shock on galactic protons in the equatorial plane is to reduce the total modulation as a function of radial distance with respect to the interstellar spectrum. Making the compression ratio latitude dependent enhances these effects at energies E < 200 MeV in the equatorial plane. At larger heliolatitudes these effects are even more significant. The differences in the modulation between the two drift cycles are compelling when the compression ratio is made latitude dependent but at Earth this effect is insignificant. A general result is that the computed radial gradient changes for galactic protons at and close to the TS and that these changes are polarity dependent. In line with previous work, large polarity dependent effects are predicted for the inner heliosphere and also close to the shock’s position in the equatorial plane. In contrast, at θ = 55°, the largest polarity effect occurs in the middle heliosphere (50 AU), enhanced by the latitude dependence of the compression ratio. At this latitude, the amount of proton modulation between the heliopause and the termination shock is much reduced. If galactic cosmic rays were to experience some diffusive shock acceleration over the 100–1000 MeV range at the shock, the radial gradient should change its sign in the vicinity of the shock, how large, depends on the compression ratio and the amount of drifts taking place in the outer heliosphere. The effective polar gradient shows a strong polarity dependence at Earth but this dissipates at θ = 55°, especially with increasing radial distance. This tendency is enhanced by making the compression ratio latitude dependent.     

Kinetic theory of sheath formation in solar wind plasma

We present a general self-consistent kinetic theory for plasma sheath formation in solar wind plasma. The theory could be applied to anisotropic, as well as to isotropic collisionless plasma without resorting to any simplifications, limitations, or assumptions, such as the necessary existence of a ‘pre-sheath’ region of ions acceleration to ensure the Bohm criterion. The kinetic framework is first applied to sheath formation around an arbitrary oriented planar absorbing surface, charged by solar wind anisotropic plasma, under the condition of negligible photoelectric effect. We then make use of our kinetic approach for the plane geometry in isotropic collisionless plasma, as a particular case of a planar electrode orientation parallel to plasma streaming velocity, also analyzing the sheath structure around spherical and cylindrical absorbing electrodes submerged in isotropic collisionless plasma. Obtained results demonstrate principal differences in spatial charge distributions in sheath regions between spherical or cylindrical electrodes of large size and an unbound planar surface submerged in isotropic plasma. In the case of a planar electrode, we directly compare results obtained in our kinetic and hydrodynamic theories and conventional hydrodynamic theory of plasma sheath formation. The outcome from the present study have direct implications to the analysis of plasma sheath structure and associated distribution in space of charged dust grains, which is relevant to the moon exploration near the optical terminator region or in shadowed craters in the moon.     

Solar rhythms in the characteristics of the Arctic frontal zone in the North Atlantic

Long-term changes of the Arctic frontal zone characteristics near the south-eastern coasts of Greenland were considered, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data being used. It was found that in the cold half of the year the temperature gradients in the layer 1000–500 hPa in the region under study reveal strong ∼10-yr and ∼22-yr periodicities that seem to be related to solar activity cycles. The results obtained suggest the influence of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the structure of the temperature field of the troposphere resulting in the changes of the temperature contrasts in the Arctic frontal zone that, in turn, may affect the intensity of cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. The detected effects seem to indicate an important part of frontal zones in the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray variation influence on the development of extratropical baric systems. It is suggested that the variations of the temperature gradients revealed in the Arctic frontal zone are due to the radiative forcing of cloudiness changes which may be associated with geomagnetic activity and cosmic ray variations.     

基于并联贮箱结构的卫星推进剂剩余量测量方法

星上推进系统推进剂剩余量测量是卫星在轨管理的重要工作,事关卫星剩余寿命估计和离轨时机的选择,对于提高卫星效率具有重大的意义．中国现有的推进剂剩余量计算方法只适用于传统的双贮箱结构,不适用于桁架式卫星平台的多贮箱并联结构,为此必须开发新的计算方法,同时提高计算精度．比较多种推进剂剩余量测量方法,重点论述两种可用于并联贮箱结构的测量方法．     

单向陶瓷基复合材料阻尼计算方法

根据陶瓷基复合材料界面脱黏区及黏结区纤维和基体的应力分布,分析了拉伸和卸载时纤维相对基体的滑移机制,发展了单向陶瓷基复合材料阻尼的计算方法,并进行了数值分析.结果表明:①陶瓷基复合材料本身固有黏弹性阻尼很小,材料发生基体开裂后,界面滑移而引起的摩擦耗散成为材料主要的阻尼机制;②减小界面剪应力或减小纤维体积含量可以改善材料的阻尼性能;③材料阻尼随裂纹间距的增大而减小.      

微克量级激光微烧蚀质量测量方法

激光微推进性能研究离不开比冲的测量,烧蚀质量测量的好坏一定程度上决定了比冲的测量精度。提出了一种激光微烧蚀质量测量方法——体积修正法,介绍了此方法的构建思路和原理,与平均质量法和体积估算法进行了比较分析,建立了激光微烧蚀质量测量装置,以透射式激光烧蚀黑纸靶为例,对实验结果进行了分析。研究表明:此方法能够有效测量微克、十微克量级的激光微烧蚀质量,测量精度较高,为激光微烧蚀质量的性能研究提供了一种简便、快捷的测量手段。     

CO_2激光烧蚀水所形成气蚀空穴机理研究

分析了激光烧蚀液体时形成表面空穴的机理。利用高速相机获得CO2激光烧蚀蒸馏水的流场照片,对空穴的发展过程进行了分析,发现空穴的快速发展期在最初的100μs内,之后在几百μs内保持平衡。用简单模型计算了不同能流密度下,空穴平衡时的形状,并分析了模型的局限性。研究结果对于揭示激光烧蚀水产生推力的机理有重要意义,有利于促进水工质激光推进的发展。