A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Noise in wireless systems from solar radio bursts

Solar radio bursts were first discovered as result of their interference in early defensive radar systems during the Second World War (1942). Such bursts can still affect radar systems, as well as new wireless technologies. We have investigated a forty-year record of solar radio burst data (1960–1999) as well as several individual radio events in the 23rd solar cycle. This paper reviews the results of a portion of this research. Statistically, for frequencies f  1 GHz (near current wireless bands), there can be a burst with amplitudes >10³ solar flux units (SFU; 1 SFU = 10⁻²² W/m²) every few days during solar maximum conditions, and such burst levels can produce problems in contemporary wireless systems.     

Research on a complex CME event including Hα, LASCO, radio and MDI observations

We present our research on a fast and decelerating partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) event detected in multi-wavelengths in the chromosphere and the corona on 14 October, 1999. The event involved a whole complex active area which spanned more than 40° of heliolongitude. It included a strong solar flare (XI/1N) and a complex eruptive filament within an active region of the entire complex. Especially, several radio sources were detected in the decimetric range prior to the CME by the Nançay Radioheliograph (NRH). A linear force-free field extrapolation of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram was performed to calculate the magnetic topology of the complex prior to the triggering of the event. The presence of a coronal null point combined with the occurrence of two distant and nearly simultaneous radio sources put strong arguments in favor of the generalized breakout model for the triggering of the eruption. The analysis of the subsequent development of the event suggests that large interconnecting loops were ejected together with the CME.     

1989年3月太阳活动引起的强烈磁暴群

本文分析了1989年3月上旬一个太阳超级活动区中多次特大耀斑引起的强磁暴群.联系源耀斑的等级、位置等讨论了磁暴形态特征.随着耀斑活动区位置由东向西旋转,磁暴的形态呈现有规律的变化,充分显示了磁暴形态特征有依赖于耀斑位置的中心子午线效应和东西不对称性.     

捕获加速新生离子对Alfvén波的激发

根据准线性方程,求出了在离子持续产生并被太阳风捕获加速的情况下离子的渐近态分布函数.采用此分布函数分析了斜向传播的Alfven波的稳定性.     

1989年3月大宇宙线暴事件的特征

本文分析了1989年3月一系列大耀斑等离子体抛射引起的宇宙线强度变化的特征.除对中子成分分析外,还对μ介子成分及其各向异性特征作了分析,讨论了宇宙线强度变化与太阳耀斑特性和地磁扰动之间的关系。分析发现,宇宙线的Forbush下降不仅与太阳耀斑的级别、持续时间,以及在日面上的位置有关,而且还与光学耀斑是否伴有强的X射线暴、是否有强的射电爆发,以及是否引起强的地磁暴紧密有关.各向异性分析表明,3月大事件的各向异性明显小于宁静时的各向异性,这可能是因为受到太阳活动强烈调制之后,宇宙线各向异性趋于减小的原因.     

Sharp boundaries of solar wind plasma structures and their relationship to solar wind turbulence

Sharp (<10 min) and large (>20%) solar wind ion flux changes are common phenomena in turbulent solar wind plasma. These changes are the boundaries of small- and middle-scale solar wind plasma structures which can have a significant influence on Earth’s magnetosphere. These solar wind ion flux changes are typically accompanied by only a small change in the bulk solar wind velocity, hence, the flux changes are driven mainly by plasma density variations. We show that these events occur more frequently in high-density solar wind. A characteristic of solar wind turbulence, intermittency, is determined for time periods with and without these flux changes. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of solar wind ion flux variations for different time scales are calculated for each of these periods and compared. For large time scales, the PDFs are Gaussian for both data sets. For small time scales, the PDFs from both data set are more flat than Gaussian, but the degree of flatness is much larger for the data near the sharp flux change boundaries.     

An empirical solar radiation pressure model for satellites moving in the orbit-normal mode

We present a family of empirical solar radiation pressure (SRP) models suited for satellites orbiting the Earth in the orbit normal (ON) mode. The proposed ECOM-TB model describes the SRP accelerations in the so-called terminator coordinate system. The choice of the coordinate system and the SRP parametrization is based on theoretical assumptions and on simulation results with a QZS-1-like box-wing model, where the SRP accelerations acting on the solar panels and on the box are assessed separately. The new SRP model takes into account that in ON-mode the incident angle of the solar radiation on the solar panels is not constant like in the yaw-steering (YS) attitude mode. It depends on the elevation angle of the Sun above the satellite’s orbital plane. The resulting SRP vector acts, therefore, not only in the Sun-satellite direction, but has also a component normal to it. Both components are changing as a function of the incident angle. ECOM-TB has been used for precise orbit determination (POD) for QZS-1 and BeiDou2 (BDS2) satellites in medium (MEO) and inclined geosynchronous Earth orbits (IGSO) based on IGS MGEX data from 2014 and 2015. The resulting orbits have been validated with SLR, long-arc orbit fits, orbit misclosures, and by the satellite clock corrections based on the orbits. The validation results confirm that—compared to ECOM2—ECOM-TB significantly (factor 3–4) improves the POD of QZS-1 in ON-mode for orbits with different arc lengths (one, three, and five days). Moderate orbit improvements are achieved for BDS2 MEO satellites—especially if ECOM-TB is supported by pseudo-stochastic pulses (the model is then called ECOM-TBP). For BDS2 IGSOs, ECOM-TB with its 9 SRP parameters appears to be over-parameterized. For use with BDS2 IGSO spacecraft we therefore developed a minimized model version called ECOM-TBMP, which is based on the same axis decomposition as ECOM-TB, but has only 2 SRP parameters and is supported by pseudo-stochastic parameters, as well. This model shows a similar performance as ECOM-TB with short arcs, but an improved performance with (3-day) long-arcs. The new SRP models have been activated in CODE’s IGS MGEX solution in Summer 2018. Like the other ECOM models the ECOM-TB derivatives might be used together with an a priori model.     

Families of halo orbits in the elliptic restricted three-body problem for a solar sail with reflectivity control devices

Solar sail halo orbits designed in the Sun-Earth circular restricted three-body problem (CR3BP) provide inefficient reference orbits for station-keeping since the disturbance due to the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit has to be compensated for. This paper presents a strategy to compute families of halo orbits around the collinear artificial equilibrium points in the Sun-Earth elliptic restricted three-body problem (ER3BP) for a solar sail with reflectivity control devices (RCDs). In this non-autonomous model, periodic halo orbits only exist when their periods are equal to integer multiples of one year. Here multi-revolution halo orbits with periods equal to integer multiples of one year are constructed in the CR3BP and then used as seeds to numerically continue the halo orbits in the ER3BP. The linear stability of the orbits is analyzed which shows that the in-plane motion is unstable while the out-of-plane motion is neutrally stable and a bifurcation is identified. Finally, station-keeping is performed which shows that a reference orbit designed in the ER3BP is significantly more efficient than that designed in the CR3BP, while the addition of RCDs improve station-keeping performance and robustness to uncertainty in the sail lightness number.     

Plasma polarization electric field derived from radio sounding of solar wind acceleration region with spacecraft signals

Presented is the analytical approximation of averaged solar wind velocity radial dependence in the solar wind acceleration region at heliolatitudes below 60° under low and moderate solar activity. This empirical approximation is based on the data of radio sounding of the solar corona with radio signals from various spacecraft. Deduced is an equation connecting the solar wind velocity radial dependence and the radial dependence of solar wind plasma polarization electric field intensity. This allows constructing a semi-empirical radial dependence of plasma polarization electric field corresponding to the empirical radial dependence of solar wind velocity. Main properties of the semi-empirical dependence, which is based on radio sounding data, are described.