A new approach to solar cycle forecasting

We describe a novel approach for determining the timing of the solar cycle and tracking its evolution relative to other cycles. This method also has predictive capability for forecasting the cycle “onset.” Based on current trends, we expect that Cycle 23 will be about 1 year longer than the previous two cycles.     

Observation bio-effect of SW-global solar radiation in Ilorin in the tropics

The annual variation of global (total) solar radiation measured over four (4) years (1995–1998) at Ilorin (8°32′N, 4°34′E) was studied and the bio-effects of the variation is herein reported. The weekly averages of the solar radiation flux were obtained and plotted. The profile of the weekly averages of the insolation shows two notable “wells” corresponding to the harmattan dry season and the rainy season. It was deduced that the duration of the seasons was directly proportional to the sizes of the “wells”, while the depths of the “wells” correspond to the severity of the causes of the “wells”. The fall and rise rates of the depth of the edges of the wells are inversely proportional to the ecological effects of the variation of the radiation. The rates of decrease and increase of the radiation flux affect the depths of the “wells” and were found to be rapid and shallow for the “Harmattan Well”, and gentle and deep for the “Rain Well”. The width (duration), rate of change and depth of the “Harmattan Well” bring about stress for both animals and plants.     

Thin structure of temporal profiles of solar flares January 15, 17 and 20, 2005 by data of AVS-F apparatus onboard CORONAS-F satellite

The count rate temporal profiles and energy spectra of the solar flares January 15, 17, 20 2005 in hard X-ray and gamma energy bands by data of AVS-F apparatus onboard CORONAS-F satellite are discussed. The energy spectra of these solar flares contain positron line and neutron capture line. Solar flares of January 17 and 20 spectra also contain some nuclear lines. Thin structure with characteristic timescales of 33–92 s is presented on flares temporal profiles in energy bands corresponding to the observed spectral features, which are confirmed by periodogram analysis (confidence level is 99%).     

Detection of the high energy component of Jovian electrons in Low Earth Orbit with the PAMELA experiment

The PAMELA experiment is devoted to the study of cosmic rays in Low Earth Orbit with an apparatus optimized to perform a precise determination of the galactic antimatter component of c.r. It is constituted by a number of detectors built around a permanent magnet spectrometer. PAMELA was launched in space on June 15th 2006 on board the Russian Resurs-DK1 satellite for a mission duration of 3 years. The characteristics of the detectors, the long lifetime and the orbit of the satellite, will allow to address several aspects of cosmic-ray physics. In this work we discuss the observational capabilities of PAMELA to detect the electron component above 50 MeV. The magnetic spectrometer allows a detailed measurement of the energy spectrum of electrons of galactic and Jovian origin. Long term measurements and correlations with Earth–Jupiter 13 months synodic period will allow to separate these two contributions and to measure the primary electron Jovian component, dominant in the 50–70 MeV energy range. With this technique it will also be possible to study the contribution to the electron spectrum of Jovian e⁻ reaccelerated up to 2 GeV at the Solar Wind Termination Shock.     

Recent progress in time–distance helioseismology

Time–distance helioseismology is one of the local helioseismology techniques that are used to derive the interior properties of the Sun. It has been used to study the structures and flow fields beneath sunspots on local scales, as well as used to derive interior rotational rates and meridional flow velocities on global scales. In addition to the efforts in improving time–distance measurements and inversions, theoretical modeling is also carried out to enhance the accuracy of sensitivity kernels. Recently, by use of realistic numerical simulation on solar convection, we have also started to investigate the validity of time–distance studies.     

Correlation between solar flare productivity and photospheric vector magnetic fields

Studying the statistical correlation between the solar flare productivity and photospheric magnetic fields is very important and necessary. It is helpful to set up a practical flare forecast model based on magnetic properties and improve the physical understanding of solar flare eruptions. In the previous study ([Cui, Y.M., Li, R., Zhang, L.Y., He, Y.L., Wang, H.N. Correlation between solar flare productivity and photospheric magnetic field properties 1. Maximum horizontal gradient, length of neutral line, number of singular points. Sol. Phys. 237, 45–59, 2006]; from now on we refer to this paper as ‘Paper I’), three measures of the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of the neutral line, and the number of singular points are computed from 23990 SOHO/MDI longitudinal magnetograms. The statistical relationship between the solar flare productivity and these three measures is well fitted with sigmoid functions. In the current work, the three measures of the length of strong-shear neutral line, total unsigned current, and total unsigned current helicity are computed from 1353 vector magnetograms observed at Huairou Solar Observing Station. The relationship between the solar flare productivity and the current three measures can also be well fitted with sigmoid functions. These results are expected to be beneficial to future operational flare forecasting models.     

Cosmic ray anisotropies in the outer heliosphere

The observation of the directional distribution of energetic and cosmic ray particles has been done with the Voyager spacecraft over a long period. Since 2002, when the first flux enhancements of charged particles associated with the approach of Voyager 1 to the solar wind termination shock were observed, these anisotropy measurements have become of special interest. They play an important role to understand the magnetic field and shock structure and the basics of the modulation of cosmic ray and anomalous particles at and beyond the termination shock. They also serve as motivation to study the spatial behavior of galactic and anomalous cosmic ray anisotropies with numerical modulation models in order to illustrate how the radial anisotropy, at different energies, change from upstream to downstream of the termination shock. Observations made by Voyager 1 indicate that the termination shock is a complicated region than previously thought, hence the effects of the latitude dependence of the termination shock’s compression ratio and injection efficiency on the radial anisotropies of galactic and anomalous protons will be illustrated. We find that the magnitude and direction of the radial anisotropy strongly depends on the position in the heliosphere and the energy of particles. The effect of the TS on the radial anisotropy is to abruptly increase its value in the heliosheath especially in the A > 0 cycle for galactic protons and in both polarity cycles for anomalous protons. Furthermore, the global effect of the latitude dependence of the shock’s compression ratio is to increase the radial anisotropy for galactic protons throughout the heliosphere, while when combined with the latitude dependence of the injection efficiency this increase depends on modulation factors for anomalous protons and can even alter the direction of the radial anisotropy.     

一种确定自旋卫星姿态的新方法

提出了一种在自旋稳定卫星自旋轴与几何体轴重合或几乎重合时只利用太阳角计算自旋卫星姿态的方法。给出了方法的原理及适用范围。研究表明：定姿精度仅与太敏测量精度有关,减小了传统方法中太敏与地敏两项测量误差产生的误差,方法原理简单、精度高。由实际卫星数据的长期验证可知：方法能在卫星自旋轴与实际几何轴偏差较小时实现快速定姿,定姿结果满足要求。     

Assessing the relationship between solar activity and some large scale climatic phenomena

The nature of the climatic response to solar variability is assessed over a long-time scale. The wavelet analysis applied to paleoclimatic proxy data of large scale atmospheric phenomena (North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Southern Oscillation Index) has revealed coherence between the climatic oscillations and the solar phenomena (the cosmogenic isotope ¹⁰Be and the Total Solar Irradiance) preferentially with periods of Schwabe, Hale and Yoshimura–Gleissberg cycles that may reflect a modulation of solar activity.     

Comparison of ANN and MLR models for estimating solar radiation in Turkey using NOAA/AVHRR data

In this paper, the estimation capacities of MLR and ANN are investigated to estimate monthly-average daily SR over Turkey. The satellite data are used for 73 different locations over Turkey. Land surface temperature, altitude, latitude, longitude and month are offered as the input variables for modeling ANN and MLR to get SR. Estimations of SR are evaluated with the meteorological values by using the statistical bases. The obtained results indicated that the ANN model could achieve a satisfactory performance when compared to the MLR model. Moreover, it is understood that more accurate results in estimation of SR are obtained in the use of satellite data, rather than the use of meteorological station data. Finally, the built ANN model is used to estimate the yearly average of daily SR over Turkey. As a result, satellite-based SR map for Turkey is generated.