奇异谱分析在太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预测中的应用

首次尝试利用信号处理技术奇异谱分析方法预测太阳活动低年未来27天太阳10.7cm射电流量.选取的预报试验时间段是2004年4月30日至5月30日,此试验期内太阳活动水平相对较低.在样本时间序列的构建上,吸取了相似周数据分析思路,采取的是23周实时观测数据与其相似周第20周下降年部分数据相结合的方式,既增加了样本长度又避开了太阳活动的活跃期.这31天的预报试验结果表明,大部分情况下,预报值基本上体现出F_10.7的变化趋势,平均相对误差为10.5%;比同时期美国空军预测值的平均相对误差小,前者为11.3%,后者为14.6%;除两天外,SSA每一次27天的预报结果的平均相对误差比美国空军(AAF)的要小;对不同的时间提前量而言,AAF提前1天到提前12天的预报准确性较奇异谱分析方法要高,即AAF较短期的预报效果更好.     

空间对接机构太阳外热流的计算与分析

根据空间对接机构的结构特点,在简化物理模型的基础上,用太阳窗口和蒙特卡洛(MC)法计算不同空间位置、不同轨道高度、不同表面辐射特性的机构内部构件太阳辐射外热流,并给出了相应的计算流程。分析了飞行角β和表面辐射特性等因素对太阳热流的影响。研究结果对对接机构以及其他复杂系统的热控涂层选择有一定的参考价值。     

航天器大型网状天线透光性遮挡的精确计算方法

针对航天器太阳电池阵的设计和仿真中需要考虑大型网状天线造成的透光性遮挡的问题,提出一种精确计算透光性遮挡的方法。该方法以最小重复单元对金属网布进行三维建模,求取不同光照下金属网布透光率并存为表格;计算含金属网布构件造成的透光性遮挡图形时,用三角面片对构件进行三维建模,先计算出三角面片与入射光线的位置关系,查表得到该三角面片的透光率后将其投影区域的光照强度相应减少。径向肋天线算例表明,该方法快速准确,能正确生成透光性遮挡图形,为太阳电池阵仿真分析奠定了基础。     

太阳能热动力发电系统吸热器腔体辐射计算

空间太阳能热动力发电系统是一种新型的空间电力系统,吸热器是热动力发电系统关键部件之一,吸热器腔体的热辐射将直接影响到吸热腔的热损失和吸热器的传热,建立了太阳能热动力发电系统吸热器腔体辐射模型,结合换热管的传热模型计算了吸热器的传热过程,得到了吸热器热损失,换热管最大温度,工质出口温度等结果,并进行了比较,分析、计算结果可以用于吸热器的设计。     

1991年6月地磁扰动—地面和同步高度特征

给出了1991年6月地磁扰动的地面和同步高度特征及引起这些扰动的可能的源.在长达近对天的扰动过程中，出现四次主相强度不同的磁暴和多次强急始，有的磁暴由多次扰动迭加而形成形态复杂的复合型磁暴·同步高度Hq分量多次出现反相.这些特征很可能主要是对广大的行星际空间多个高速度高密度结构的响应，这些结构有时伴随大尺度强南向磁场分量.     

Comparison of organ dose and dose equivalent for human phantoms of CAM vs. MAX

For the evaluation of organ dose and dose equivalent of astronauts on space shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS) missions, the CAMERA models of CAM (Computerized Anatomical Male) and CAF (Computerized Anatomical Female) of human tissue shielding have been implemented and used in radiation transport model calculations at NASA. One of new human geometry models to meet the “reference person” of International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is based on detailed Voxel (volumetric and pixel) phantom models denoted for male and female as MAX (Male Adult voXel) and FAX (Female Adult voXel), respectively. We compared the CAM model predictions of organ doses to those of MAX model, since the MAX model represents the male adult body with much higher fidelity than the CAM model currently used at NASA. Directional body-shielding mass was evaluated for over 1500 target points of MAX for specified organs considered to be sensitive to the induction of stochastic effects. Radiation exposures to solar particle event (SPE), trapped protons, and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) were assessed at the specific sites in the MAX phantom by coupling space radiation transport models with the relevant body-shielding mass. The development of multiple-point body-shielding distributions at each organ made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of organ doses at the specific organ. For the estimate of doses to the blood forming organs (BFOs), data on active marrow distributions in adult were used to weight the bone marrow sites over the human body. The discrete number of target points of MAX organs resulted in a reduced organ dose and dose equivalent compared to the results of CAM organs especially for SPE, and should be further investigated. Differences of effective doses between the two approaches were found to be small (<5%) for GCR.     

太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型研究

太阳活动指数中期预报一直是空间环境业务预报的难点之一. 本文在自回归方法模型的基础上, 利用太阳活动区面积、位置等参数与10.7cm辐射流量之间的定量关系, 根据活动区面积衰减规律, 建立了一个基于活动区参数及演化规律的改进型太阳活动指数中期预报模型. 通过对预报测试实例分析发现, 在日面出现较大活动区导致F10.7迅速增长并超过历史数据峰值的情况, 在日面活动区消亡导致指数突然出现平静期的情况, 新模型的预报准确性相比自回归模型有很大提高, 预报的平均相对误差下降约5%~9%. 由此可见, 新模型在某些特定条件下提高了原有模型的精度. 该研究为提高业务型太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型的预报精度奠定了基础.     

一种基于SAR图像鉴别的港口区域舰船目标新方法

鉴于遥感卫星动态监视港口内舰船的需要,提出了一种SAR图像港口内舰船鉴别方法。针对港口内舰船目标散射特性,首先进行舰船目标鉴别特征的提取,包括已有鉴别特征的提取和新特征的提取;其次,在特征选择阶段,利用特征对目标与杂波的可分离性度量优选出鉴别效果明显的有效特征,并得到最大分离性对应的最优特征向量权重;最后,为了提高鉴别器的精度,设计了加权最小距离分类器。试验结果表明了所提方法的有效性。     

Cross-hemisphere comparison of mid-latitude ionospheric variability during 1996–2009: Juliusruh vs. Hobart

Analysis of a long-time series of hourly median characteristics of the ionospheric plasma at two mid-latitude locations in the Northern and Southern hemisphere, Juliusruh (54.6N; 13.4E) and Hobart (42.9S; 147.3E), reveals patterns of their synchronous and independent variability. We studied timelines of GPS vTEC, ionogram-derived F2-layer peak electron density NmF2, ionospheric equivalent slab thickness τ, and their ratios at two locations during the complete 23rd solar cycle and its following period of the extremely low solar activity in 2008–2009. This study has also involved the comparative analysis of the observed data versus the model predictions by IRI-2012. During the high solar activity in 2000–2002, seasonal variations show a complicated cross-hemisphere behavior influenced by the winter and semi-annual anomalies, with the largest noon-time values of TEC and NmF2 observed around equinoxes. Strength of the winter anomaly in NmF2 was significantly greater at Juliusruh in comparison with Hobart. The winter anomaly in GPS vTEC values was much weaker than in NmF2 for the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes and was entirely absent at the Southern hemisphere. Cross-hemisphere analysis of the equivalent slab thickness shows its clear seasonal dependence for all levels of solar activity: the day-time maximum τ_max is observed during local summer, whereas the day-time minimum τ_min is observed during local winter. The night-time values of τ were higher compared to the day-time values during the winter and equinox seasons. Comparative model-data study shows rather good IRI performance of the day-time NmF2 for mid-latitudes of both hemispheres and rather noticeable overestimations for the mid-night NmF2 values during high solar activity. Analysis of IRI vTEC demonstrates the model limitations, related with the absence of the plasmaspheric part, and actual demand in a reliable and standard ionosphere–plasmasphere model for analysis of GPS vTEC.     

第22与23周磁静日北京台银河宇宙线周日变化与半日变化特征

利用快速傅里叶变换及其计算功率谱的方法研究了第22和23周磁静日北京宇宙线台站记录的银河宇宙线强度的周日变化与半日变化,计算结果表明,在两个太阳活动周交替时,银河宇宙线的周日变化与半日变化特征消失,在太阳活动低年逐渐向高年过度时,首先出现的是周日变化。半日变化特征出现要滞后于周日变化,22周太阳活动高年看不出周日变化,而23周太阳活动的高年周日变化非常显著,22周太阳活动的下降期。只有周日变化而无半日变化。这是分析北京宇宙线台近2个太阳活动周数据得到的新结果。