利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

FY-2C卫星太阳X射线探测器性能定标

通过具体的实验对FY-2C太阳X射线探测器进行了详细的定标.太阳X射线探测器的传感器采用充Ar气的正比计数器.主要探测能量大于4 KeV的太阳X射线流量.在坪特性、效率、正比性、能道划分、能量分辨率和时间分辨率等6个方面详细介绍了定标的方法及结果.定标结果表明,FY-2C卫星的太阳X射线探测器在各个方面都具有很好的性能.最后对FY-2C的在轨探测数据与GOES卫星进行了比较.GOES卫星的太阳X射线传感器采用电离室.FY-2C的探测结果与GOES的探测结果非常吻合.结果表明,FY-2C太阳X射线探测器可以很好地监测太阳X射线的流量变化,为空间环境监测提供有效的服务.     

太阳活动高低年广西及周边地区电离层时空频域特性

电离层延迟是影响GNSS高精度定位和导航的重要误差. 本文利用CODE提供的2000－2021年GIM (Global Ionospheric Map) 数据, 以不同时间尺度研究广西及周边地区电离层TEC在2个太阳活动周期不同太阳活动程度下的时空变化特性. 结果表明: 太阳活动强度影响电离层TEC数值大小及变化特性; 电离层TEC在全年中具有双峰变化, 春秋季的季均值大于夏冬季, 太阳活动高年存在冬季异常, 但在太阳活动低年, 冬季异常仅出现在部分地区的部分时段; 在周日空间频域上, 经度每改变1°, 电离层TEC的变化量在太阳活动高年和太阳活动低年分别主要集中在–2～2 TECU和–1～1 TECU, 而纬度每改变1°, 电离层TEC的变化量在太阳活动高年和低年则分别主要集中在–3～1 TECU和–2～1 TECU, 整体呈现出纬度的TEC变化量较经度偏大; 在周日时间频域上, 电离层TEC的2 h和4 h改变量在太阳活动高年分别主要集中在–20～20 TECU和–40～40 TECU, 但在太阳活动低年则都集中在–20～20 TECU.     

太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型研究

太阳活动指数中期预报一直是空间环境业务预报的难点之一. 本文在自回归方法模型的基础上, 利用太阳活动区面积、位置等参数与10.7cm辐射流量之间的定量关系, 根据活动区面积衰减规律, 建立了一个基于活动区参数及演化规律的改进型太阳活动指数中期预报模型. 通过对预报测试实例分析发现, 在日面出现较大活动区导致F10.7迅速增长并超过历史数据峰值的情况, 在日面活动区消亡导致指数突然出现平静期的情况, 新模型的预报准确性相比自回归模型有很大提高, 预报的平均相对误差下降约5%~9%. 由此可见, 新模型在某些特定条件下提高了原有模型的精度. 该研究为提高业务型太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型的预报精度奠定了基础.     

On the practical exploitation of perturbative effects in low Earth orbit for space debris mitigation

This paper presents the results of a numerical evaluation of the natural lifetime reduction in low Earth orbit, due to dynamical perturbations. The study considers two values for the area-to-mass ratio, a nominal ratio which resembles a typical value of spacecraft in orbit today, and an enhanced ratio which covers the surface augmentation. The results were obtained with two orbit propagators, one of a semi-analytical nature and the second one using non-averaged equations of motion. The simulations for both propagators were set up similarly to allow comparison. They both use the solar radiation pressure and the secular terms of the geopotential ($J_2,J_4$ and $J_6$). The atmospheric drag was turned on and off in both propagators to alternatively study the eccentricity build up and the residual lifetime. The non-averaging case also covers a validation with the full 6?×?6 geopotential. The results confirm the findings in previous publications, that is, the possibility for de-orbiting from altitudes above the residual atmosphere if a solar sail is deployed at the end-of-life, due to the combined effect of solar radiation pressure and the oblateness of the Earth. At near polar inclinations, shadowing effects can be exploited to the same end. The results obtained with the full, non-averaging propagator revealed additional de-orbiting corridors associated with solar radiation pressure which were not found by previous work on space debris mitigation. The results of both tools are compared for specific initial conditions. For nominal values of area-to-mass ratio, instead, it is confirmed that this resonance effect is negligible.The paper then puts the findings in the perspective of the current satellite catalogue. It identifies space missions which are currently close to a resonance corridor and shows the orbit evolution within the resonances with a significantly shorter residual orbital lifetime. The paper finishes with a discussion on the exploitation of these effects with regards to the long-term simulation of the space debris environment and a flux and collision probability comparison.     

The interstellar heliopause probe technology reference study

The interstellar heliopause probe (IHP) is one of ESA’s technology reference studies (TRS). The TRS aim to focus the development of strategically important technologies of relevance to future science missions by studying technologically demanding and scientifically interesting missions that are currently not part of the science mission programme.

Equipped with a highly integrated payload suite (HIPS), the IHP will perform in situ exploration of the heliopause and the heliospheric interface. The HIPS, which is a standard element in all TRSs, miniaturize payloads through resource reduction by using miniaturized components and sensors, and by sharing common structures and payload functionality.

To achieve the scientific requirements of the mission, the spacecraft is to leave the heliosphere as close to the heliosphere nose as possible and reach a distance of 200 AU from the Sun within 25 years. This is possible by using a trajectory with two solar flybys and a solar sail with characteristic acceleration of 1.1 mm/s², which corresponds to a 245 × 245 m² solar sail and a sail thickness of 1–2 μm. The trajectory facilitates a modest sail design that could potentially be developed in a reasonable timeframe.

In this paper, an update to the results of studies being performed on this mission will be given and the current mission baseline and spacecraft design will be described. Furthermore, alternative solar sail systems and enabling technologies will be discussed.     

Flows and obstacles in the solar wind

Understanding the physics of the various disturbances in the solar wind is critical to successful forecasts of space weather. The STEREO mission promises to bring us new and deeper understanding of these disturbances. As we stand on the threshold of the first results from this mission, it is appropriate to review what we know about solar wind disturbances. Because of their complementary nature we discuss both the disturbances that arise within the solar wind due to the stream structure and coronal mass ejecta and the disturbances that arise when the solar wind collides with planetary obstacles, such as magnetospheres.     

Interplanetary proton cumulated fluence model update

Solar particle events leading to important increase of particle fluxes at energies of order of magnitude ranging from MeV to GeV constitute an important hazard for space missions. They may lead to effects seen in microelectronics or damage to solar cells and constitute a potential hazard for manned missions. Cumulative damage is commonly expressed as a function of fluence which is defined as the integral of the flux over time. A priori deterministic estimates of the expected fluence cannot be made because over the time scale of a space mission, the fluence can be dominated by the contribution of a few rare and unpredictable high intensity events. Therefore, statistical approaches are required in order to estimate fluences likely to be encountered by a space mission in advance. This paper extends work done by Rosenqvist et al. [Rosenqvist, L., Hilgers, A., Evans, H., Daly, E., Hapgood, M., Stamper, R., Zwickl, R., Bourdarie, S., Boscher, D. Toolkit for updating interplanetary proton-cumulated fluence models. J. Spacecraft Rockets, 42(6), 1077–1090, 2005] to describe an updated predictive engineering model for the proton interplanetary fluence with energies >30 MeV. This model is derived from a complete list of solar proton fluences based on data from a number of calibrated sources covering almost three solar cycles.     

一种利用栅格光源特征编码的室内定位技术

目前,几种主流的室内定位技术分别存在定位精度低、设备成本高、易受环境干扰等一种或多种缺点,基于可见光通信的室内定位技术成为了研究热点。不同于主流的室内定位技术,提出了一种利用栅格光源特征编码的室内定位方案,先使光源照射区被划分为栅格,再用光源闪烁传递栅格特征信息,用户端接收闪烁光信号,对其解码实现定位。利用的编码方式结构巧妙,可以有效避免误读,同时相邻栅格编码相似度高,有利于跨栅格定位。在实验室中,以普通投影仪生成栅格光源,以市售安卓智能手机为用户终端,在较理想条件下的测试表明,该方案在动态和静态情况下均可确定用户位置,定位精度达到半个栅格,定位准确率达到100%。