太阳黑子数及Ap指数周期变化特征的小波分析

应用Morlet小波变换方法从多个变化尺度上对1932—2000年的太阳黑子数及Ap指数的变化特征进行分析．(1)太阳黑子数存在准11年、准32年的周期变化特征及Ap指数存在准32年、准11年、准6个月、准27天和准13．9天的周期变化特征；(2)太阳黑子数及Ap指数有着相似的准11年周期变化，但Ap指数极值的出现要比太阳黑子数极值出现滞后1—2年；(3)Ap指数准27天的周期变化在太阳黑子活动高、低年不同，在太阳活动低年，Ap指数有着较稳定的准27天周期变化，但在太阳活动高年，27天的周期变化几乎消失，这种周期变化的消失和出现时间可在Morlet小波变换图中体现出来。     

工艺资源负荷指数的估算方法研究

针对工艺资源的负荷均衡和资源利用情况,研究了工艺资源负荷问题,分析了工艺资源结构,建立了工艺资源信息模型,并给出了基于经验的工艺资源定额估算方法,建立了工艺资源负荷指数模型。算例证实了该模型的有效性。     

先进客机设计中油耗指标的分解方法

先进客机最重要指标之一是油耗指标。研究一种将油耗指标进一步分解为更为具体的发动机的耗油率指标、客机的升阻比指标和使用空重指标的方法。以典型中程客机为例，应用分段解析方法建立客机飞行剖面的燃油量计算程序。应用计算程序分别分析了发动机的耗油率、客机的升阻比和使用空重的变化对油耗的影响。在此基础上，对发动机的耗油率、客机的升阻比和使用空重的指标进行规划，以满足先进客机油耗指标的要求。研究结果为未来客机确定出合理的升阻比、耗油率和使用空重的指标提供了参考。     

Is the North Atlantic Oscillation modulated by solar and lunar cycles? Some evidences from Hurst autocorrelation analysis

Several studies have suggested that the Sun and Moon cycles affect the Earth climatic dynamics. Nevertheless, there is a long-standing controversy whether solar variability and tides can significantly generate climate change, and how this may occur. Spectral analysis of climatic indices has provided only indirect evidences of the effects of solar–tidal periodicities in the Earth climate. This work addresses the issue by considering the dynamics of the daily North Atlantic Oscillation index over the period from 1950 to 2009. In contrast to previous studies, this work proposes that external cycles can be detected in the autocorrelation dynamics rather than in the raw North Atlantic Oscillation index series. Here, the R/S-scaling analysis is used to quantify, via the so-called Hurst exponent, the presence of autocorrelations along the studied years. Fourier analysis scan of the autocorrelation series thus show two prominent spectral components near (±3%) the lunar tidal 4.425 and the solar 11 years cycles. Intermediate spectral components near 6.4, 7.75 and 8.9 years are proposed to be, at least partially, a result of energy capture from internal mechanisms into cycles resulting from the nonlinear resonance of the fundamental solar–tidal cycles. The dominant effect of the solar variability is clarified by showing that in about 70% of the studied period the sunspot number and the Hurst exponent phases are synchronized, indicating that a higher solar activity enhances the North Atlantic Oscillation index predictability.     

基于改进的PRI方法对植被冠层叶绿素含量的反演

叶绿素是植被光合作用的重要色素，对植被的健康状况有直接的指示作用。利用遥感技术准确、快速地获取植被叶绿素含量对精准农业具有重要意义。文章在对各种光化学植被指数（Photochemical Reflectance Index，PRI）与叶绿素含量进行敏感性分析的基础上，提取出对叶绿素变化较为敏感的组合形式，并考虑土壤背景的影响，提出了一种改进的PRI模型，同时利用在小汤山试验田获取的地面采样数据和实用模块化成像光谱仪（Operative Modular Imaging Spectrometer，OMIS）数据进行验证。结果表明，基于OMIS高光谱数据，模型能够很好地对植被冠层的叶绿素含量进行反演，反演的叶绿素含量与实测值具有较好的相关性。     

Aircraft air conditioning system health state estimation and prediction for predictive maintenance

The vast potential of system health monitoring and condition based maintenance on modern commercial aircraft is being realized through the innovative use of Airplane Condition Monitoring System (ACMS) data. However there are few methods addressing the issues of failure prognostics and predictive maintenance for commercial aircraft Air Conditioning System (ACS). This study developed a Bayesian failure prognostics approach using ACMS data for predictive maintenance of ACS. First, a health index characterizing the ACS health state is inferred from a multiple sensor signals using a data driven method. Then a dynamic linear model is proposed to describe the degradation process for failure prognostics. Bayesian inference formulas are carried out for degradation estimation and prediction. The developed approach is applied on a passenger aircraft fleet with ACMS data recorded for one year. The analysis of the case study shows that the developed method can produce satisfactory prognostics results, where all the ACS failure precursors are identified in advance, and the relative errors for the failure time prediction made when just entering the degradation warning stage are less than 8%. This would allow operators to proactively plan future maintenance.     

Physical implications of discrepancy between summer and winter PC indices observed in the course of magnetospheric substorms

The PC index based on a statistically justified relationship between the polar cap magnetic activity and the interplanetary electric field E_KL has been derived as a value standardized for the E_KL intensity regardless of season, UT and hemisphere. As a result, the summer and winter PC indices are consistent with one another under ordinary conditions. Discrepancies between the summer and winter PC indices arising in the course of magnetospheric substorms are analyzed in this paper. It is argued that the channel of enhanced conductivity, formed in the auroral oval owing to intense auroral particle precipitation, strongly improves the conditions for closure of the Region 1 field-aligned currents in the winter dark polar region but only trivially affects the conditions of the Region 1 FAC closure in the summer sunlit ionosphere. Since the coefficients describing the relationship between E_KL and the polar cap magnetic activity were derived for statistically justified (i.e., mean) conditions, their application to such abnormal situation, as intense field-aligned currents in the winter dark polar region, leads to overestimation of the winter PC index. The summer and winter PC indices level off as soon as the intense auroral particle precipitation terminates and the auroral ionosphere in the winter and summer polar caps returns to the ordinary (statistically justified) state.     

Using vegetation indices and texture measures to estimate vegetation fractional coverage (VFC) of planted and natural forests in Nanjing city,China

Vegetation fractional coverage (VFC) is an important vegetation parameter affecting exchanges of carbon, water, energy between the atmosphere and surface. In this study, the applicability of tonal and texture measures calculated using an IKONOS_2 image in retrieving VFC of forests was investigated in the urban area of Nanjing city, China. Four spectral vegetation indices (VI) and six texture measures (TEX) were related to VFCs acquired from in situ measurements. Models for estimating VFC based on VIs or/and TEXs were established and validated for planted low broad-leaf forest plots (PLB), planted mature forest plots (PMF), natural broad-leaf forest plots (NBF), and all forest plots (ALLv), respectively. The results show that high spatial resolution remote sensing data is applicable to estimate VFC in urban areas, and TEXs may act as effective supplements of vegetation indices (VIs) for the retrieval of VFC. VIs are suitable for VFC estimation of mature forests (such as NBF and PMF) with high vegetation density, and TEXs can yield a more accurate estimate for planted forests (such as PLB and PMF) with regular spatial distribution if they are calculated with proper parameters, such as window size. The combination of VIs and TEXs improve the estimation of VFC if forest types are not previously differentiated. The results can be used as a reference for determining effective spectral or texture parameters in VFC estimation under similar environmental conditions according to vegetation maturity and regularity.     

Crop parameters estimation by fuzzy inference system using X-band scatterometer data

Learning fuzzy rule based systems with microwave remote sensing can lead to very useful applications in solving several problems in the field of agriculture. Fuzzy logic provides a simple way to arrive at a definite conclusion based upon imprecise, ambiguous, vague, noisy or missing input information. In the present paper, a subtractive based fuzzy inference system is introduced to estimate the potato crop parameters like biomass, leaf area index, plant height and soil moisture. Scattering coefficient for HH- and VV-polarizations were used as an input in the Fuzzy network. The plant height, biomass, and leaf area index of potato crop and soil moisture measured at its various growth stages were used as the target variables during the training and validation of the network. The estimated values of crop/soil parameters by this methodology are much closer to the experimental values. The present work confirms the estimation abilities of fuzzy subtractive clustering in potato crop parameters estimation. This technique may be useful for the other crops cultivated over regional or continental level.     

径向磁力轴承系统的时间响应特性分析

本文介绍了径向磁力轴承控制系统的二次型性能指标加仅矩阵的选择，径向磁力轴承的跟踪特性和抗干扰特性分析，并给出了仿真曲线。