硝胺复合固体推进剂燃速估算

本文讨论了硝胺炸药RDX、HMX的热分解及其对固体推进剂燃速的影响.提出了一种适用于AP/RDX(HMX)/HTPB(PU)/Al体系复合固体推进剂燃速预估的计算程序,计算结果与实测值十分吻合.     

FMS巡航阶段的垂直轨迹预测算法及应用

飞机的飞行过程涉及多个垂直飞行阶段,巡航阶段占了绝大部分的飞行时间、飞行距离及燃油消耗,研究飞行管理系统（FMS）巡航阶段的垂直轨迹预测算法,对于提升飞行的经济性、舒适性、安全性是非常重要和必要的。为了满足不同类型飞机之间巡航阶段垂直轨迹预测算法的通用性,提高垂直轨迹预测的精确度和可信度,提出一种适用于巡航阶段的垂直轨迹预测算法。首先,通过计算巡航阶段的速度剖面,构建预测过程中更加符合实际的大气模型;然后基于第一性原理（第一法则）的飞机模型计算所需的巡航燃油流量数据,通过设计的巡航阶段垂直轨迹预测算法逻辑,给出巡航阶段预测的垂直轨迹;最后通过地面仿真试验和空中试飞验证算法的有效性与准确性。结果表明：本文提出的基于第一性原理飞机模型的FMS 巡航阶段垂直轨迹预测算法能够预测飞机的巡航轨迹,且预测精度误差低于1%。     

HTPB推进剂贮存寿命的理论预估

以ＨＴＰＢ推进剂化学老化机理及其氧化反应动力学为依据,导出了推进剂应变保留值与贮存老化时间的关系,由推进剂中氧化剂ＡＰ低温分解反应和ＨＴＰＢ固化体经反应的动力学参数,计算出了在不同应变保留值时的推进剂的贮存寿命。当推进剂的应变保留值在３０％～５０％之间时,其贮存寿命的理论计算值与高温加速老化实验值之间的相对误差小于１６％。     

Remaining useful life prediction of aircraft lithium-ion batteries based on F-distribution particle filter and kernel smoothing algorithm

As an emergency and auxiliary power source for aircraft, lithium (Li)-ion batteries are important components of aerospace power systems. The Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of Li-ion batteries is a key technology to ensure the reliable operation of aviation power systems. Particle Filter (PF) is an effective method to predict the RUL of Li-ion batteries because of its uncertainty representation and management ability. However, there are problems that particle weights cannot be updated in the prediction stage and particles degradation. To settle these issues, an innovative technique of F-distribution PF and Kernel Smoothing (FPFKS) algorithm is proposed. In the prediction stage, the weights of the particles are dynamically updated by the F kernel instead of being fixed all the time. Meanwhile, a first-order independent Markov capacity degradation model is established. Moreover, the kernel smoothing algorithm is integrated into PF, so that the variance of the parameters of capacity degradation model keeps invariant. Experiments based on NASA battery data sets show that FPFKS can be excellently applied to RUL prediction of Li-ion batteries.     

Forecasting the geomagnetic activity of the Dst index using multiscale radial basis function networks

The Dst index is a key parameter which characterises the disturbance of the geomagnetic field in magnetic storms. Modelling of the Dst index is thus very important for the analysis of the geomagnetic field. A data-based modelling approach, aimed at obtaining efficient models from limited input–output observational data, provides a powerful tool for analysing and forecasting geomagnetic activities including the prediction of the Dst index. In this study, the process of the Dst index is treated to be a structure-unknown system, where the solar wind parameter (VBs) and the solar wind dynamic pressure (P) are the system inputs, and the Dst index is the system output. A novel multiscale RBF (MSRBF) network is introduced to represent such a two-input and single-output system, where the Dst index is related to the solar wind parameter and the dynamic pressure, via a hybrid network model consisting of two submodels: a linear part that reflects the linear relationship between the output and the inputs, and a nonlinear part that captures the effect of the interacting contribution of past observations of the inputs and the output, on the current output. The proposed MSRBF network can easily be converted into a linear-in-the-parameters form and the training of the linear network model can easily be implemented using a forward orthogonal regression (FOR) algorithm. One advantage of the new MSRBF network, compared with traditional single scale RBF networks, is that the new network is more flexible for describing complex nonlinear dynamical systems.     

采样时间序列的滑动递推容错预报算法

在导出线性模型系数递推最优辨识算法的基础上，探讨了滑动线性预报器的容错改进，建立了简洁、实用的滑动递推容错预报算法。通过仿真计算验证了算法的有效性。     

星箭力学环境分析与试验技术研究进展

半个世纪以来，宇航科技工作者对卫星发射力学环境的认识逐步深入，从而带动了相关基础理论、预示方法、分析工具、试验技术和试验设备的不断发展。随着航天技术发展步伐的加快，对航天器设计的要求越来越高，星箭力学环境分析与试验技术研究的迫切性日益凸出。本文重点针对星箭力学环境分析与试验技术所涉及的航天器力学环境预示、航天器力学环境试验和星箭力学环境匹配优化等三方面技术的国内外研究进展进行了综合分析评述；指出了三者之间相辅相成、缺一不可的内在联系：预示分析决定着试验的方法和条件，力学试验又反过来验证预示分析的准确性，力学环境预示分析和试验的准确性和有效性为星箭力学环境匹配优化的顺利开展提供重要保障。最后，根据航天工程的需要，提出了今后在星箭力学环境分析与试验技术研究领域的主要研究方向。     

1997-2003年太阳质子事件源区的卡林顿经度分布

分析了1997-2003年期间的59个太阳质子事件,太阳质子事件源区的卡林顿经度带.分析结果表明,质子事件源区主要集中在10°-45°,135°-155°,180°-215°,230°-260°,265°-310°,345°-360°,还有4个质子耀斑分散在72°,74°,93°和107°上.其中最强的活动卡林顿经度带的经度范围是265°-310°,次之为卡林顿经度带135°-155°,最弱的是卡林顿经度带180°-215°最强的活动经度是卡林顿经度272°.1997-2003年期间峰值通量大于100 pfu,质子耀斑南半球发生次数为18,北半球发生次数为10;同一活动经度上的质子事件具有重现的规律,重复出现的时间间隔短的为27天,长的超过4年.     

人工神经网络在磁情预报中的应用

介绍了人工神经元网络在磁情预报中的应用研究，并对具体应用于C9指数预报的MLP的拓扑结构，预报效率及在预报时所表现出的特点和问题进行了讨论。