Study of the Enhancement Events of Relativistic Electron at the Geosynchronous Orbit

The high flux of energetic electron on geostationary orbit can induce many kinds of malfunction of the satellite there, within which the bulk-charging is the most significant that several broadcast satellite failures were confirmed to be due to this effect. The electron flux on geostationary orbit varies in a large range even up to three orders accompanied the passage of interplanetary magnetic cloud and the following geomagnetic disturbances. Upon the investigation of electron flux enhancement events, two types of events were partitioned as recurrent events and random ones. Both of the two kinds of events relate to the interplanetary conditions such as solar wind parameters, IMF etc and their evolution characters as well. As for the recurrent events, we found that, (1) all of the events exhibits periodic recurrence about 27 days, (2) significant increase of electron flux relates to interplanetary index and characters of their distribution, (3) the electron flux also has relation to solar activity index. An artificial neural network was constructed to estimate the flux I day ahead. The random electron flux enhancement events are rare and present different distribution figures to the recurrent ones. The figure of the random events and the conditions of their occurrence is also discussed in this paper.      

第2009卡林顿周太阳活动的初步分析

介绍了第 2 0 0 9卡林顿周大黑子群AR484,AR486和AR488产生的太阳活动以及这些太阳活动对地球空间环境造成的影响。依据对太阳活动的统计研究 ,简要分析了三个大黑子群活动的差异。分析结果指出 ,关注某一时期太阳活动的活动经度带以及太阳活动在某一半球的主次是解决太阳活动短期预报非常重要的思路     

航天器电线电缆寿命预测模型研究

随着航天器复杂大系统的高速发展，以及器上电子产品的广泛应用，使得电线电缆大量应用于复杂系统之间的功率输送和信号控制。在航天器运行过程中，电线电缆由于受到空间布局限制，交叉重叠；同时受振动、温度、空间辐射等外部环境影响，致使电缆老化进而引发其他电气故障。介绍了基于可测特征参数的寿命模型建立方法，得出电缆剩余寿命的预计模型，开展航天器电线电缆老化机制以及寿命预测模型研究，最终实现航天装备电缆寿命预测的能力。     

基于仿真分析的压铆力预测模型

铆接是飞机结构机械连接的主要方式,压铆力作为影响铆接质量的重要因素,传统的计算方法通常是建立在体积不变的假设之上,且不考虑钉杆材料被压入钉孔部分的体积,导致模型误差较大。为此,依据仿真分析结果和铆钉材料的流动趋势,引入体积缩减系数来描述钉杆被压入钉孔部分的体积,建立压铆力预测模型,并与已有的试验数据进行对比,结果表明计算值与试验值的一致性较好,该模型可以用来预测铆接过程中压铆力的大小。     

固体火箭发动机燃烧不稳定性预估

本文以Culick线性理论为基础,提出预估固体火箭发动机燃烧不稳定性的方法,并给出一个算例.讨论了提高微粒阻尼预估精度和考虑平均流动影响的问题.首次提出用统计方法评定燃烧不稳定性、给出发生燃烧不稳定概率的方法,并讨论了这种统计方法的合理性和可行性.     

含金属固体推进剂在加速度场中燃烧时瞬态燃烧特性的预示

本文综述了含金属固体推进剂在加速度场中燃烧时瞬态燃烧领域的一些主要研究成果,指出了其中存在的某些阴显的不妥之处,如:金属颗粒的尺寸分布,金属球团变形参数与变形模量的关系.本文在综合有关模型的基础上,提出了含金属推进剂在加速度场中燃烧的计算方程组,并求解确定了其瞬态燃烧特性,所得结果比较满意,可供发动机设计和推进剂配方设计时参考.     

电离层参数的混沌特性及可预报的时间尺度

本文用相空间重构方法，把电离层参数的时变序列重构一个ｍ维相空间，研究相点之间的距离关系，提取关联维数和Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ特征指数，从而揭示电离层参数的混沌特性，及参数的最大可预报时间尺度。     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

随机追踪策略预测钟差的理论分析

稳健流逝性是时间区别于其它物理量的重要特征,决定了时间计量的滞后性。为了保障未来时刻的准确性,时间信号的预测及控制尤为关键。从理论视角分析了随机追踪策略的基本原理、预测不确定度以及关键参数优化等问题,明确了随机追踪预测钟差的运行机理,并进一步阐述了该方法的适用性,同时提出两点进一步改进的研究思路。     

航空电子产品的BAYES可靠性评估

针对航空电子产品可靠性评估问题, 确定了环境因子的分布, 把模拟试验信息通过环境因子折合得到了可靠性的预测分布。利用此预测分布作为验前分布结合飞行试验信息得到可靠性的验后分布。仿真算例表明这种方法比经典统计方法和传统BAYES方法更合理