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11.
Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Rong Li Yanmei Cui Han He Huaning Wang 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2008,42(9):1469-1474
The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events. 相似文献
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The high flux of energetic electron on geostationary orbit can induce many kinds of malfunction of the satellite there, within which the bulk-charging is the most significant that several broadcast satellite failures were confirmed to be due to this effect. The electron flux on geostationary orbit varies in a large range even up to three orders accompanied the passage of interplanetary magnetic cloud and the following geomagnetic disturbances. Upon the investigation of electron flux enhancement events, two types of events were partitioned as recurrent events and random ones. Both of the two kinds of events relate to the interplanetary conditions such as solar wind parameters, IMF etc and their evolution characters as well. As for the recurrent events, we found that, (1) all of the events exhibits periodic recurrence about 27 days, (2) significant increase of electron flux relates to interplanetary index and characters of their distribution, (3) the electron flux also has relation to solar activity index. An artificial neural network was constructed to estimate the flux I day ahead. The random electron flux enhancement events are rare and present different distribution figures to the recurrent ones. The figure of the random events and the conditions of their occurrence is also discussed in this paper. 相似文献
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乐贵明 《中国空间科学技术》2004,24(5):62-66
介绍了第 2 0 0 9卡林顿周大黑子群AR484,AR486和AR488产生的太阳活动以及这些太阳活动对地球空间环境造成的影响。依据对太阳活动的统计研究 ,简要分析了三个大黑子群活动的差异。分析结果指出 ,关注某一时期太阳活动的活动经度带以及太阳活动在某一半球的主次是解决太阳活动短期预报非常重要的思路 相似文献
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郭伟 《民用飞机设计与研究》2012,(2):40-43
讨论了民用飞机航班延误的主要原因,着重分析了因技术原因导致航班延误和取消的三类设备,并结合飞机的构型和主最低设备清单(建议书)(P)MMEL给出了在民用客机研制阶段签派可靠度的分配和预计的初步模型和计算方法,为签派可靠度的定量分配与预计以及设计构型方案的改进和权衡提供指导。 相似文献
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航空发动机飞行载荷谱的预测 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
提出了基于飞机的设计飞行任务剖面、飞行力学及发动机原理的发动机飞行载荷的预测方法,即首先将飞机的设计飞行任务剖面通过飞行力学的基本原理转化为发动机的推力(或油门)剖面,然后通过发动机性能计算获得发动机的其它工作状态参数,从而获得发动机的飞行载荷谱。 相似文献
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从非金属材料老化机理与寿命预测模型、老化行为表征技术、贮存环境试验与寿命评估技术等方面,概述了国内外的技术发展和现状,介绍了航天产品用非金属材料及制品贮存寿命评估技术的发展及其应用进展。 相似文献
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