Measuring the economic benefits of a national planetary protection policy to regulate future private space activities between Earth and Mars: Results of a contingent valuation survey in Greece

The emergence of private space actors may soon enable the growth of the novel market segments of space research and exploration, space resources utilization, and human access to space. The interdisciplinary field of Planetary Protection has to keep up with these advances. Planetary Protection is defined as a set of guidelines that aim to prevent the forward contamination of celestial bodies with biological material from Earth and the backward contamination of the terrestrial biosphere with extraterrestrial biological material. As space entrepreneurs acquire and develop the resources and competencies for commercial access to space, significant questions are expected to be raised in the future with respect to potential forward and backward contamination issues, particularly with respect to activities between Earth and Mars. Although such private activities do not seem to pose a serious Planetary Protection threat at the moment, certain preparatory steps need to be taken in order to prudently inform the relevant policy-making procedures. This work describes the application of the Contingent Valuation Method, a useful tool of the environmental economics discipline, with the aim of demonstrating a novel approach to estimate the economic valuation of the external benefits of preventing forward and backward contamination between Earth and Mars. Particularly, via a survey specifically developed for this purpose, a set of questions are used to elicit the perceived economic value that respondents place on the prevention of forward and backward contamination; the survey is administered to a national probability sample in Greece, and the generated data is processed through statistical analysis. The Contingent Valuation Method is a popular and well-established stated preference valuation technique; these techniques are often the more suitable choice for ex-ante valuations of future changes, and are currently the only known approach to capture all the aspects of the economic value of non-market goods. Through an initial proof-of-concept in Greece, the goal of this work is to provide useful insights on the expected external benefits of a national Planetary Protection policy to regulate future private space activities between Earth and Mars, and to encourage a larger-scale application of this tool in other countries around the world.     

An engineering model of Titan surface winds for Dragonfly landed operations

Winds near the ground on Titan for the Dragonfly landing site (near Selk crater, 10°N) for the mid-2030s (Titan late southern summer, L_s ~ 310°) are estimated for mission design purposes. Prevailing winds due to the global circulation are typically 0.5 m/s, and do not exceed 1 m/s. Local terrain-induced flows such as slope winds appear to be similarly capped at 1 m/s. At various landing sites and times, these two contributions will vectorially combine to yield steady winds (for part of a Titan day, Tsol) of up to 2.0 m/s, but typically less – the slope wind component will be small in the mid-morning. In early afternoon, as on Earth and Mars, solar-driven convection in the planetary boundary layer will cause wind fluctuations of the order of 0.1 m/s, varying with a typical timescale of ~1000 s. Occasionally this convection organizes into coherent ‘dust devil’ vortices: detectable vortices with speeds of 1 m/s are predicted about once per Titan day. We have introduced the convective velocity scale combined with the advection time of PBL cells as a metric to derive the frequency of occurrence of gusts associated with convective vortices (‘dust devils’). Maximum possible vortex winds on Titan of 2.8 m/s may be expected only once per 40 Tsols, and define the maximum wind (4.8 m/s at 10 m height) that Dragonfly must tolerate without damage. The applicability of different wind combinations, scaled to the height of relevant Dragonfly components above the ground (e.g. the maximum corresponds to 3.9 m/s at 1.3 m height) by a logarithmic wind profile, to Dragonfly design and operations are discussed.     

Planet temperatures with surface cooling parameterized

A semigray (shortwave and longwave) surface temperature model is developed from conditions on Venus, Earth and Mars, where the greenhouse effect is mostly due to carbon dioxide and water vapor. In addition to estimating longwave optical depths, parameterizations are developed for surface cooling due to shortwave absorption in the atmosphere, and for convective (sensible and latent) heat transfer. An approximation to the Clausius–Clapeyron relation provides water–vapor feedback. The resulting iterative algorithm is applied to three “super-Earths” in the Gliese 581 system, including the “Goldilocks” planet g (Vogt et al., 2010). Surprisingly, none of the three appear habitable. One cannot accurately locate a star’s habitable zone without data or assumptions about a planet’s atmosphere.     

Viability of bacterial spores exposed to hydrazine

For the purposes of planetary protection, a series of experiments were performed to answer a long-standing question about the potential of bacterial contamination of interplanetary spacecraft from liquid hydrazine. Spores of Bacillus atrophaeus (ATCC No. 9372, also known as Bacillus subtilis var. niger, and BSN) were exposed to hydrazine and survivors were enumerated using the NASA standard planetary protection pour plate assay. Results indicate that bulk hydrazine rocket propellant may be considered free of living bacterial cells for planetary protection compliance.     

Analytical and semi-analytical investigations of geosynchronous space debris with high area-to-mass ratios

This paper provides a Hamiltonian formulation of the averaged equations of motion with respect to short periods (1 day) of a space debris subjected to direct solar radiation pressure and orbiting near the geostationary ring. This theory is based on a semi-analytical theory of order 1 regarding the averaging process, formulated using canonical and non-singular elements for eccentricity and inclination. The analysis is based on an expansion in powers of the eccentricity and of the inclination, truncated at an arbitrary high order.     

Might astronauts one day be treated like return samples?

The next time humans set foot on the Moon or another planet, will we treat the crew like we would a sample return mission when they come back to Earth? This may seem a surprising or even provocative question, but it is one we need to address. The hurdles and hazards of sending humans to Mars – for example, the technology constraints and physiological and psychological challenges – are many; but let us not forget the need to protect populations and environments from the risk of contamination [United Nations, treaty on principles governing the activities of states in the exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies (the “Outer Space Treaty”) referenced 610 UNTS 205 - resolution 2222(XXI) of December 1966].     

An ethical approach to planetary protection

What hazards might biological contamination pose to planets, comets and other celestial bodies visited by probes launched from Earth? What hazards might returning probes pose to Earth and its inhabitants? What should be considered an acceptable level of risk? What technologies, procedures and constraints should be applied? What sort of attitude has to be chosen concerning human crews, who themselves could become both contaminated victims and contaminating agents? The vast issue of planetary protection must, more than ever, spark ethical debate. Space treaty, COSPAR recommendations offer borders and context for this reflection, which has to be introduced in the actual humanist: never has been anthropocentrism so practical and concerned, in the same time, by the next generations, because of the historical character of life. At least an ethics of risk is necessary (far from the myth of zero-risk) for all the three types of contamination: other celestial bodies (forward contamination), Earth (backward contamination) and astronauts.     

Characterizing bedrock lithologies using Small Crater Rims and Ejecta Probing (SCREP)

This paper describes the rationale, methodology, and importance of focusing on the rim and proximal ejecta of small (<5 km in diameter), immature impact craters to explore an underlying crustal lithology. Small Crater Rim and Ejecta Probing (SCREP) describes a methodology and application program that extracts bedrock spectral and compositional information from a remote sensing image. Extracted data can yield the pristine lithologies of a planetary crust that would otherwise be obscured by the products of space weathering processes. SCREP was developed with lunar data, specifically Clementine multispectral image mosaics, therefore the technique is discussed in this context. However, its application to other airless solar system bodies is apparent. Knowledge of the pristine bedrock compositions of a planetary crust provides insight into geological surface processes, which can be used to refine models of planetary interiors and their evolution.     

Sailing with solar and planetary radiation pressure

Literature on solar sailing has thus far mostly considered solar radiation pressure (SRP) as the only contribution to sail force. However, considering a sail in a planetary mission scenario, a new contribution can be added. Since the planet itself emits radiation, this generates a radial planetary radiation pressure (PRP) that is also exerted on the sail. Hence, this work studies the combined effects of both SRP and PRP on a sail for two case studies, i.e. Earth and Venus. In proximity of the Earth, the effect of PRP can be significant under specific conditions. Around Venus, instead, PRP is by far the dominating contribution. These combined effects have been studied for single- and double-sided reflective coating and including eclipse. Results show potential increase in the net acceleration and a change in the optimal attitude to maximise the acceleration in a given direction. Moreover, an increasing semi-major axis manoeuvre is shown with and without PRP, to quantify the difference on a real-case scenario.     

Connection between winter mesopause region temperatures and diurnal LF reflection height variations measured at Collm

Scale height, H, estimates are calculated from the decrease/increase of ionospheric virtual reflection heights of low-frequency (LF) radio waves at oblique incidence in suitably defined morning intervals around sunrise during winter months. The day-to-day variations of H qualitatively agree with daily mean temperature variations around 90 km from meteor radar measurements. Since mesospheric long-period temperature variations are generally accepted to be the signature of atmospheric planetary waves, this shows that LF reflection height measurements can be used for monitoring the dynamics of the upper middle atmosphere. The long-term variations of monthly mean H estimates have also been analysed. There is no significant trend, which is in agreement with other measurements of mesopause region temperature trends.