弹道反舰导弹靶场飞行试验安全分析

反舰导弹靶场飞行试验中,为了确保试验方案可实施,必须进行试验安全性量化分析,以确保故障弹对保护目标的威胁概率最小。根据弹道反舰导弹特点,给出量化分析基本思路,归纳导弹故障模式,分析不同故障模式下导弹落点散布,并给出量化分析计算方法。通过实例,验证计算方法的正确性和科学性。     

假目标效应对弹道导弹突防概率的影响分析

文中论述了采用突防技术提高弹道导弹突防能力的重要性,阐述了诱饵假目标突防手段的特点和在弹道导弹突防系统中的作用,对采用假目标诱饵作为突防措施的一枚进攻导弹的突防概率给出了定量计算。     

机载电子对抗系统效能评估方法研究

通过干扰方程计算出了最小干扰距离，用检测理论求得了干扰压制九，用排队论导出了突防概率，并对攻防双方武器系统的战术技术性能进行了分析。     

疲劳裂纹扩展随机过程的统计分析

证明了两种疲劳裂纹扩展随机模型 (即以时间为参量的随机过程模型和以裂纹长度为参量的随机过程模型 )在描述裂纹扩展随机过程方面的统一性。建立了由试验数据估计平稳对数正态随机过程相关参数的方法,可以直接由试验数据估计疲劳裂纹扩展随机过程的相关参数。针对 4种机型含紧固孔试件谱载荷下的疲劳裂纹扩展试验数据,给出了用文中方法估计的相关参数和用随机模拟法估算的置信区间。     

反舰导弹命中概率模型研究

根据现代海战的特点,结合敌我武器装备的实际,对反舰导弹的命中概率计算模型进行了构造和分析,同时针对具体实例,进行了仿真计算及结果分析。     

用子波系数概率密度函数研究湍流多尺度结构的间歇性

用热线风速仪在充分发展平板湍流边界层中测量流向速度信号的时间序列并进行湍流多尺度结构统计特性的实验研究。用热线风速仪以高于对应最小湍流时间尺度的分辨率精细测量风洞中平板湍流边界层不同法向位置的流向速度分量的时间序列信号,用子波分析对湍流脉动速度信号进行多尺度分解,将推广的自相似性(ESS)应用于子波分析。用子波系数的概率密度函数验证了多尺度相干结构对间歇性的影响,并证明与距壁面距离有关。对比研究了提取湍流边界层多尺度相干结构前后湍流多尺度结构函数间歇性的变化规律及概率密度函数的变化规律,验证了多尺度相干结构是湍流边界层产生奇异标度律的原因。当这些相干结构被分离出后,由子波系数计算的ESS标度律就回到K olm ogorov线性标度律,这一现象在整个湍流边界层都是很明显的。      

一种基于模式寻优的舰载机实时回收方法

为了解决舰载机的回收决策问题，提出一种基于模式寻优的舰载机实时回收方法。通过对典型回收模式的计算分析，寻求最佳的回收模式，解决舰载机回收过程中通用因素带来的回收决策问题。在此基础上，提出一种考虑优先级的时间域区间集算法，解决舰载机回收过程中随机因素带来的回收决策问题，即在既定的回收群体下，寻求最佳的回收序列。仿真结果表明，基于模式寻优的舰载机实时回收方法能够处理复杂多变的回收限制因素，得到合理可行的回收决策方案。     

Predicting the vulnerability of spacecraft components: Modelling debris impact effects through vulnerable-zones

The space environment around the Earth is populated by more than 130 million objects of 1 mm in size and larger, and future predictions shows that this amount is destined to increase, even if mitigation measures are implemented at a far better rate than today. These objects can hit and damage a spacecraft or its components. It is thus necessary to assess the risk level for a satellite during its mission lifetime. Few software packages perform this analysis, and most of them employ time-consuming ray-tracing methodology, where particles are randomly sampled from relevant distributions. In addition, they tend not to consider the risk associated with the secondary debris clouds. The paper presents the development of a vulnerability assessment model, which relies on a fully statistical procedure: the debris fluxes are directly used combining them with the concept of vulnerable zone, avoiding the random sampling the debris fluxes. A novel methodology is presented to predict damage on internal components. It models the interaction between the components and the secondary debris cloud through basic geometrical operations, considering mutual shielding and shadowing between internal components. The methodologies are tested against state-of-the-art software for relevant test cases, comparing results on external structures and internal components.     

磁探仪应召搜潜建模与仿真

依据经典的磁探仪应召搜潜方法,以某型反潜巡逻机为背景,建立了反潜巡逻机利用磁探仪执行平行航线、扩展矩形和螺旋形搜潜模型.对3种方法的搜潜概率进行分析,仿真了相同潜艇运动模型条件下,潜艇初始位置散布、初始距离、潜艇经济航速和海洋环境磁噪声对搜潜概率的影响.实验结果表明:相同条件下,螺旋形搜潜效能最高;潜艇只进行航速机动时...     

Study of TEC changes during geomagnetic storms occurred near the crest of the equatorial ionospheric ionization anomaly in the Indian sector

GPS satellites data obtained at Bhopal (23.16° N, 77.36° E, geomagnetic latitude 14.23° N) India were analyzed to study the TEC changes during several geomagnetic storms (−300 nT < Dst < −50 nT) occurred in 2005–2007. We had segregated the storms according to the Dst value, i.e. moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), strong storms (−150 nT < Dst < −100 nT), and severe storms (Dst less than −150 nT). Total of 21 geomagnetic storms (10 moderate, 9 strong, 2 severe) are considered for the present study. Deviation in vertical total electron content (VTEC) during the main phase of the storm was found to be associated with the prompt penetration of electric field originated due to the under-shielding and over-shielding conditions for almost all geomagnetic storms discussed in this paper. For most of the storms VTEC shows the positive percentage deviation during the main phase while it shows positive as well as the negative deviation during the recovery phase of the storms. The −80% deviation in VTEC was found for geomagnetic storm occurred on July 17, 2005 and the negative trend continued for recovery phase of the storm. This was mainly due to the thermospheric composition changes by Joule heating effect at auroral latitudes that generate electric field disturbance at low latitudes. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were responsible for the formation of wave like nature in VTEC for the storms occurred on May 15, 2005, whereas it was not observed for storm occurred on August 24, 2005.