混合变量系统基于MCMC的自适应重要抽样法

 系统关键故障的发生,会导致系统处于各种离散性能降级状态.针对传统的基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)的自适应重要抽样法只适用于连续变量系统的不足,提出考虑混合变量的基于MCMC的自适应重要抽样法,以支持系统性能可靠性的高效仿真.该方法首先将由关键故障产生的不同失效域组成失效空间,并通过初始样本点在失效空间中随机游走构造马尔可夫链模拟样本;然后综合考虑连续变量与离散变量,利用核密度估计构建混合核抽样密度函数;再根据该密度函数进行重要抽样仿真并计算系统的性能可靠性;最后对该方法的仿真效率进行理论分析.通过电液舵机(Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator,EHA)案例对方法的正确性和仿真效率进行验证.     

马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法在保险定价中的应用

预测最终损失是保险定价中最重要的组成部分,而马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法（MCMC方法）在这方面拥有独特的优势。通过建立模型进行实证,为利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法进行保险定价提供了思路。     

基于动态故障树的卫星可靠性分析

针对卫星系统的可靠性问题，提出了一种基于动态故障树的卫星可靠性分析方法。采用马尔可夫链和二元决策图相结合的分析方法，建立卫星的电源、姿轨控和推进3个分系统的动态故障树模型，在此基础上得到卫星的随机故障模型，并综合考虑损耗故障建立卫星可靠性模型。利用蒙特卡洛仿真对随机故障模型进行评估分析，并将其与Weibull分布模型进行性能比较，仿真结果表明该方法能够有效分析卫星的随机故障，具有计算精度高、效率高的优点，并能更有效地模拟卫星部件随机故障的动态行为。     

基于蒙特卡洛法的空间机器人工作空间计算

工作空间是衡量机器人工作能力的一个重要运动学指标。由于存在动力学耦合,空间机器人工作空间分析比地面机器人复杂得多。文章采用数值方法,即蒙特卡洛法分析空间机器人的工作空间。首先,采用虚拟机械臂（VM）建模方法建立空间机器人位置级运动学模型,并推导出了基座位姿固定、自由飞行、自由漂浮三种模式下的位置级运动学方程;然后,提出...     

Maneuvering Target Tracking in Dense Clutter Based on Particle Filtering

An improved particle filtering(IPF) is presented to perform maneuvering target tracking in dense clutter.The proposed filter uses several efficient variance reduction methods to combat particle degeneracy,low mode prior probabilities and measure-ment-origin uncertainty.Within the framework of a hybrid state estimation,each particle samples a discrete mode from its poste-rior distribution and the continuous state variables are approximated by a multivariate Gaussian mixture that is updated by an unscented Ka...     

可靠性灵敏度分析的一种偏倚蒙特卡罗方法

根据可靠性灵敏度分析的需求和特点,选择似然比方法作为基础的导数/梯度估计方法.立足经典可靠性系统和基于元件的蒙特卡罗方法,推导了原始蒙特卡罗仿真环境下的似然比导数估计方法.为加速仿真,进一步提出了一种偏倚技巧,该技巧在系统结构函数的基础上定义一个应用重要抽样的无偏估计量,并通过最小化该估计量的方差来获得最优偏倚参数值.该估计量拥有的一个重要优势是其方差优化任务可以分解到单个元件的层次上进行,从而避免了高维优化的难题.通过一个可解析求解的简单实例验证了似然比导数估计方法应用于可靠性灵敏度分析的有效性,以及所提出的偏倚技巧对于降低导数估计方差的有效性.对于所考虑的实例系统,提出的偏倚蒙特卡罗方法对各个感兴趣的量都给出了很好的估计,与原始蒙特卡罗方法相比,各个估计量的方差均降低了至少6个数量级.     

Plume aerodynamic effects of cushion engine in lunar landing

 During the second period of China "Tanyue" Project, the explorer will softland on the moon. The cushion engines are used to decelerate the explorer and reduce the impact on the lunar ground. It is necessary to study its plume effects on the explorer component. The self-developed PWS (Plume WorkStation) software based on direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is used to simulate the plume effects of two 150 N engines. Due to the complex structure of the explorer, PWS uses a decoupling method to treat the boundary mesh, which mainly interacts with simulation particles, and has no relation with the computational grids. After the analytical expressions of plane surfaces and curved surfaces of each boundary block are given, the particle position within or without the boundary blocks can be easily determined. Finally the 3D plume field of two 150 N engines is simulated. The pressure, temperature and velocity distributions of plume field are clearly presented by three characteristic slices. The aerodynamic effects on the explorer bottom, the landfall legs and antenna are separately shown. The compression influence on the plume flow of four landfall legs can be observed.     

热塑性成形过程微观组织模拟研究新进展

金属在热塑性成形过程中微观组织发生晶粒形核、长大、相变、再结晶等一系列的复杂变化,直接影响加工过程与产品的机械性能。本文对目前应用在热成形微观组织演变模拟方面的主要模拟技术作了比较全面的评述,对比了不同微观组织模拟方法,总结了利用各种模拟技术所取得的最新研究成果。     

Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Transonic Flutter Using Improved Line Sampling Technique

The improved line sampling (LS) technique, an effective numerical simulation method, is employed to analyze the probabilistic characteristics and reliability sensitivity of flutter with random structural parameter in transonic flow. The improved LS technique is a novel methodology for reliability and sensitivity analysis of high dimensionality and low probability problem with implicit limit state function, and it does not require any approximating surrogate of the implicit limit state equation. The improved LS is used to estimate the flutter reliability and the sensitivity of a two-dimensional wing, in which some structural properties, such as frequency, parameters of gravity center and mass ratio, are considered as random variables. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based unsteady aerodynamic reduced order model (ROM) method is used to construct the aerodynamic state equations. Coupling structural state equations with aerodynamic state equations, the safety margin of flutter is founded by using the critical velocity of flutter. The results show that the improved LS technique can effectively decrease the computational cost in the random uncertainty analysis of flutter. The reliability sensitivity, defined by the partial derivative of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of random variable, can help to identify the important parameters and guide the structural optimization design.     

离子束加工中工件吸收热功率分析与建模研究

利用束流修正理论和蒙特卡罗模拟法对离子束加工中某一工艺参数下工件吸收的功率进行理论建模,然后采用测温实验对理论模型进行验证.设计实验时,利用有限元仿真确定了一种合理的轰击靶材铜,简化了实验并且方便了计算.