基于Bayes变动统计理论的测试性外场统计验证方法

针对故障检测/隔离数据为"小子样"情况导致的测试性外场统计验证存在的周期长、验证结论置信度低等问题,研究并提出了基于Bayes变动统计理论的的测试性外场统计验证模型和方法。首先建立了不同寿命周期阶段故障检测率(FDR)的序化关系模型;然后以Dirichlet分布为先验分布,利用不同寿命周期阶段故障检测率先验估计值确定Dirichlet分布参数;在此基础上,融合"小子样、异总体"研制阶段增长试验数据和"小子样"外场使用数据,研究并提出了故障检测率的Bayes综合评估模型;引入Gibbs抽样方法求解故障检测率Bayes综合评估模型的复杂高维后验积分;最后在某机载稳定跟踪平台上开展了应用研究。结果表明本文方法能在较短的外场使用周期内,给出较高置信度的外场验证结论,为大型高可靠性装备测试性外场统计验证研究提供了重要的理论依据。     

Nonlinear mixture model of mixed pixels in remote sensing satellite images based on Monte Carlo simulation

A nonlinear mixture model for the interpretation of mixed pixels in remote sensing satellite images is proposed. The proposed model is a Monte Carlo ray-tracing model that takes into account interactions among the ground cover materials (multiple reflections among the materials on the surface). The proposed model also takes into account topographic features (slope) of the ground surface. As an example, Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) radiance of mixed pixels of forested areas which are composed of grasses and trees are simulated with the proposed model and compared to actual remote sensing satellite data of ASTER/VNIR over these forested areas. It was found that the influence due to multiple scattering interactions between trees depends on the tree distance and ranges from 8% to 10%. It is also found that the proposed model is useful to interpret mixed pixels. Namely, it is suggested that actual reflectance of the trees is higher than apparent reflectance that is calculated with the satellite data. Also it is suggested that it is possible to estimate forest parameters such as tree distance, tree shape.     

基于张量积函数的固体火箭发动机性能散布分析

针对蒙特卡罗仿真法和改进的一次二阶矩法计算耗时长的问题,提出了基于张量积函数的固体火箭发动机性能散布分析方法,并通过实例比较了蒙特卡罗仿真法与张量积函数法的分析精度与效率。结果表明,张量积函数法既可保证良好的分析精度,又极大地提高了分析效率。     

用蒙特卡罗法数值模拟CCD相机的杂光

采用蒙特卡罗（Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ）法对卫星ＣＣＤ相机的地气杂光进行了计算。主体段杂光系数的计算值与用积分球实验测量值属同一数量级,表明该方法和计算软件具有一定的可靠性;分析计算值与测量值产生偏差的因素发现,热物性参数的不确定性对数值模拟影响很大。分析了遮光罩长度、反光镜扫描角度等变化对杂光系数的影响,结果表明,遮光罩长度不变,而反光镜的扫描角度为４５℃时,光线的进入比例最大,而杂光系数最小。     

Research on vacuum plume and its effects

In vacuum environment, the exhaust flow of attitude control thrusters would expand freely and produce the plume, which possibly causes undesirable contamination, aerodynamic force and heating effects to the spacecraft. Plume work station (PWS) is developed by Beihang University (BUAA) for numerically simulating the vacuum plume and its effects. An approach which combines the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method and difference solution of Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations is applied. The internal flows in nozzles are simulated by solving the NS equations. The flow parameters at nozzle exit are used as the inlet boundary condition for the DSMC calculation. Experimental studies are carried out in a supersonic low density wind tunnel which could simulate the 60-80 km altitude environment to investigate the plume and its effects. To demonstrate the capability of PWS, numerical simulations are performed for the vacuum plume of several typical attitude control thrusters. The research results are of great help for the engineering design.     

Space-radiation-induced photon luminescence of the Moon

We report on the results of a continuing study of the photon luminescence of the Moon induced by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and space radiation from the Sun, using the Monte Carlo program FLUKA. Understanding the space radiation environment is critical to future exploration of the Moon, and this includes photons. The model of the lunar surface is taken to be the chemical composition of soils found at various landing sites during the Apollo and Luna programs, averaged over all such sites to define a generic regolith for the present analysis. This surface model then becomes the target that is bombarded by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) or Solar Particle Events (SPEs) above 1 keV in FLUKA to determine the photon fluence albedo produced by the Moon’s surface when there is no sunlight and Earthshine. The result is to be distinguished from the gamma-ray spectrum produced by the radioactive decay of radiogenic constituents lying in the surface and interior of the Moon. From the photon fluence we derive the spectrum which can be utilized to examine existing lunar spectral data and to aid future orbiting instrumentation in the measurement of various components of the space-radiation-induced photon luminescence present on the Moon.     

符合适航认证要求的燃油温度计算方法

基于适航认证需要,以某型飞机中央翼油箱隔舱在规定工况下实测的燃油温度变化曲线为输入条件,借助于MATLAB多项式分段拟合功能,获取了各个阶段燃油温度变化规律的高阶函数表达式;采用Monte Carlo评估模型中规定的指数衰减方程来表征燃油温度变化规律,其中环境总温(TAT)由评估模型中所指定方法获取,平衡温差和时间常数...     

飞机结冰的不确定性量化研究进展

为深入认识影响飞机结冰的不确定性及其研究方法,从自然条件结冰、冰风洞试验、数值模拟等方面,介绍了飞机结冰不确定性来源,以蒙特卡洛法、多项式混沌法和随机配置法等为例,系统分析了各种不确定性量化方法在计算能力、求解精度等方面的优劣。考虑飞机结冰不确定性量化处于起步时期,重点综述了数值模拟中结冰条件不确定性对冰形和气动特性的影响。从结合单步法和多步法确定最佳结冰时间步长来提升结冰计算精度和效率、对其他关键部件进行结冰不确定性量化从而为更精细化的防/除冰系统的设计提供支撑,以及通过建立高精度的代理模型来代替原本复杂的数值模拟系统以应对考虑多个不确定性因素共同作用所带来的计算挑战等多个方面,全面展望不确定性量化方法及其在飞机结冰应用中的发展方向。     

基于光纤双环网的高精度时频同步技术研究

本文介绍了一种基于光纤双环网的时频同步技术设计方法,针对时频设备协同使用时如何获得高精度同步指标这一问题提出了一种设计思路。以系统时间源使用北斗/GPS/GLONASS,本系统同步精度优于5E-13,频率稳定度优于5E-13@1d;以UTC(BIRMM)输出的TOD+1PPS做系统时间源,本系统同步精度优于4E-13,频率稳定度优于6E-14@1d。本方案提出的方法原理简单,系统可根据使用情况进行裁剪,相比卫星双向等手段成本低廉,适合在时频同步领域推广。     

肋片参数对辐射器散热性能的影响研究

采用蒙特卡罗法计算等截面圆管直肋式辐射器的肋片和外管壁相互间的辐射换热,数值模拟了第一类换热边界条件下散热器的散热过程。分析了辐射器的肋片数、肋片高度、肋片厚度及管壁温度对肋片散热性能的影响。结果发现,在肋片质量一定的条件下肋片数及肋片高度均存在一优值,在该值附近肋片的散热效率最高,且该值受管壁温度的影响,温度越高该值越小;在肋片外形不变的条件下,增加肋片的厚度来提高辐射器的散热性能并不是经济的途径;肋片的散热效率随管壁温度的升高而减小,壁温较高时安装肋片的必要性降低。