非线性最优解在气动参数辨识中的应用

由于采用最大似然算法进行了扭动参数辨识通常存在着局极值问题，为了寻求非线性全局最优解，提高估计精度，介绍了以混沌优化算法作为搜索工具。与最大似然处算法相结合，求解非凸优化问题全局最优解的方法，算例表明，该方法是有效可行的，并且估计精度也较高。     

基于知识辅助的海面目标航迹起始方法

针对海环境下不同雷达观测测量准确度存在差异而导致观测数据质量存在差异的问题,提出了一种基于知识辅助的海面目标航迹起始方法。该方法首先利用先验知识幅度信息计算幅度似然比,并以幅度似然比的大小来表示观测数据质量的高低;然后,利用幅度似然比辅助Hough空间参数积累,并对航迹初选参数进行初值修正,提高Mean Shift多尺度聚类滤波初值的准确性,减少迭代次数,再通过最优筛选的方法分析得到目标的真实航迹起始数目和航迹起始参数;最后,通过仿真数据证明了本文所提方法的有效性和优越性。     

基于短时时差序列的无源定位方法

针对脉冲辐射源定位问题,提出了一种基于短时时差(TDOA)序列的多站无源定位新方法.首先建立了TDoA序列模型,然后推导了该方法定位误差的克拉美罗下限(CRLB),并提出了一种高效的解算方法--两步定位法(TSLM):第1步利用TDOA序列线性估计出TDOA及其变化率信息,第2步基于TDOA及其变化率信息进行定位.典型...     

Study on segmented distribution for reliability evaluation

In practice, the failure rate of most equipment exhibits different tendencies at different stages and even its failure rate curve behaves a multimodal trace during its life cycle. As a result, traditionally evaluating the reliability of equipment with a single model may lead to severer errors. However, if lifetime is divided into several different intervals according to the characteristics of its failure rate, piecewise fitting can more accurately approximate the failure rate of equipment. There-fore, in this paper, failure rate is regarded as a piecewise function, and two kinds of segmented dis-tribution are put forward to evaluate reliability. In order to estimate parameters in the segmented reliability function, Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the seg-mented distribution are discussed in this paper. Since traditional information criterion is not suit-able for the segmented distribution, an improved information criterion is proposed to test and evaluate the segmented reliability model in this paper. After a great deal of testing and verification, the segmented reliability model and its estimation methods presented in this paper are proven more efficient and accurate than the traditional non-segmented single model, especially when the change of the failure rate is time-phased or multimodal. The significant performance of the segmented reli-ability model in evaluating reliability of proximity sensors of leading-edge flap in civil aircraft indi-cates that the segmented distribution and its estimation method in this paper could be useful and accurate.     

一种基于遗传算法的动力学系统辨识方法

把遗传算法与最大似然法相结合，形成了一种基于遗传算法的动力学系统辨识方法，并以某轴对称战术导弹的非线性气动力参数仿真辨识为例，利用仿真技术，检验了该方法的实用性和有效性。结果表明，该方法是十分有效的。     

A practical filter error method for aerodynamic parameter estimation of aircraft in turbulence

It is common for aircraft to encounter atmospheric turbulence in flight tests. Turbulence is usually modeled as stochastic process noise in the flight dynamics equations. In this paper, parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamic system with both process and measurement noise was studied, and a practical filter error method was proposed. The linearized Kalman filter of first-order approximation was used for state estimation, in which the filter gain, along with the system parameters and the initial states, constituted the parameter vector to be estimated. The unknown parameters and measurement noise covariance were estimated alternately by a relaxation iteration method, and the sensitivities of observations to unknown parameters were calculated by finite difference approximation. Some practical aspects of the method application were discussed. The proposed filter error method was validated by the flight simulation data of a research aircraft. Then, the method was applied to the flight tests of a subscale aircraft, and the aerodynamic stability and control derivatives were estimated. All the estimation results were compared with the results of the output error method to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. It is shown that the filter error method is superior to the output error method for flight tests in atmospheric turbulence.     

Scatter factor confidence interval estimate of least square maximum entropy quantile function for small samples

Classic maximum entropy quantile function method (CMEQFM) based on the probabil-ity weighted moments (PWMs) can accurately estimate the quantile function of random variable on small samples, but inaccurately on the very small samples. To overcome this weakness, least square maximum entropy quantile function method (LSMEQFM) and that with constraint condition (LSMEQFMCC) are proposed. To improve the confidence level of quantile function estimation, scatter factor method is combined with maximum entropy method to estimate the confidence inter-val of quantile function. From the comparisons of these methods about two common probability distributions and one engineering application, it is showed that CMEQFM can estimate the quan-tile function accurately on the small samples but inaccurately on the very small samples (10 sam-ples); LSMEQFM and LSMEQFMCC can be successfully applied to the very small samples;with consideration of the constraint condition on quantile function, LSMEQFMCC is more stable and computationally accurate than LSMEQFM; scatter factor confidence interval estimation method based on LSMEQFM or LSMEQFMCC has good estimation accuracy on the confidence interval of quantile function, and that based on LSMEQFMCC is the most stable and accurate method on the very small samples (10 samples).     

多传感器数据融合中的数据配准研究

数据配准是多传感器数据融合的先期处理过程。本文在研究了传统的最小二乘算法的基础上,提出了基于三维坐标系中的极大似然配准算法,解决了最小二乘配准算法对于传感器相距较远时无法解决的问题。最后通过计算机仿真证明了此算法的有效性。     

IIRCT下相依两部件并联系统的统计分析

将带有不完全信息的随机截尾试验模型应用于二元指数分布场合,讨论了当相依两部件寿命具有联合二元指数分布时,它们组成的并联系统的统计分析问题,建立了参数所满足的似然方程组,给出了随机模拟数值解例子。结果表明,参数的极大似然估计（MLE）具有较高的精度。     

一些评定液体弹道式导弹最大射程的新的统计方法

本文得到了液体弹道式导弹最大射程ｔ的精确解及算法，改进了原有的评定方法，并利用极大似然法及自动法给出了一般模型下的最大射程的评定方法，并给出了计算实例。