不确定度评定的一种新方法──最大方差法

研究了不确定度评定的新方法──最大方差法，分析了它的原理，列出了最大方差法用表，举例说明了它的应用。     

热流限制下的最优气动力辅助变轨

以变轨能量消耗最小为优化目标，应用极大值原理研究了飞行过程受热流限制和升力系统约束下的气动力辅助共面变轨问题，飞行过程成分第一自由弧段，约束弧段，第二自由弧段三个部分，讨论了升力系数的最优表达式，分析了飞行过程中两种约束的相互作用，给出了约束弧起始位置的角点条件和终端的横截条件下，对不同的初值选取方法讨论了三种计算策略，并给出了数值算例。     

高速飞行器热结构工作时变模态参数辨识

高速飞行器由于其很高的飞行速度而无可避免地受到气动加热作用的影响,进而引起结构特性的时变。采用理论或有限元方法(FEM)进行数值分析,难以获取反映结构在飞行(工作)状态下的真实模态参数。通过辨识获取高速飞行器热环境下的时变结构模态参数是一项十分具有挑战性的任务。针对此问题,引入参数化时频域的最大似然方法,对气动加热作用下的高速飞行器升力面结构的时变模态参数进行了辨识。通过模拟真实飞行状态的数值算例研究,说明参数化时频域的最大似然方法能够很好地辨识出低信噪比(SNR)情况下的模态频率和模态振型,验证了参数化时频域最大似然方法适用于具有显著时变特征的高速飞行器热结构的时变结构模态参数辨识,可为将来相关的工程研究和应用提供良好的理论支持。     

Passive localization by a single moving observer using TOA only with unknown SRI: Observability analysis and algorithm

Passive localization by a single moving observer using Time of Arrival (TOA) only with an unknown Signal Repetition Interval (SRI) is investigated in this paper. Observability analysis is performed first. The observability condition for uniquely determining the emitter position and SRI is derived. The conditional Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) is also analyzed. It is found that the ambiguity of the SRI integer of the first TOA does not affect the theoretical estimation precision of the emitter position and SRI. A Reference-Fixed Differential TOA (RFDTOA)-based Iterative Maximum Likelihood Estimator (IMLE) is proposed, which only needs O(M) computational operations. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the Mean Square Error (MSE) of the proposed algorithm could attain the CRLB with moderate Gaussian measurement noise.     

一种双时间尺度函数Wiener过程性能退化模型

为通过性能退化数据评估产品的可靠性,基于广义Wiener过程提出了一种双时间尺度函数模型以描述产品退化过程。采用极大似然估计(MLE)法求解模型参数,推导了其寿命分布(FTD),进而进行可靠度分析和寿命评估。对模型进行了Monte Carlo模拟验证和实例应用,并将目前常用的混合效应Wiener过程模型作为参考方法进行了对比分析。结果表明:根据90%可靠度曲线的定义,该方法较参考方法的结果更为合理、准确。进一步的寿命评估结果表明,该方法与参考方法的平均寿命相差232.9h,90%可靠寿命结果相差109.4h,且参考方法计算结果偏于危险。      

Improvement of Jahangir＇ s multiple moments estimator

在M.Jahangir以常数为权的组合式矩估计器的基础上,给出一种以函数为权的组合式矩估计器,称为L-J估计器.其中,最优加权函数是根据U估计器与形状参数的单调关系,通过数论网格最优化算法搜索解出.大量仿真实验证实,在对K分布形状参数v大范围的参数估计中,L-J估计器在估计精度上,不但较Jahangir等提出的常数加权组合矩估计器的精度有显著提高,而且可与MLE（Maximum Likelihood Estimator）相当.特别是由于MLE作为渐进无偏估计量,需要充分大的样本长度才能达到最优,这就使得L-J估计器的估计精度可在样本长度较小时优于MLE.此外,L-J估计器无需迭代运算,因而在计算效率上,显著优于现有的ML估计器.     

基于粒子群优化的光伏阵列最大功率点跟踪法研究

光伏阵列在局部阴影条件下,出现反向雪崩效应,导致输出功率出现多个局部极大值点,此时常规的最大功率点跟踪（MPPT）失效。基于比较完善的光伏电池遮挡模型,对光伏阵列进行建模,验证其输出功率的多峰特性。提出一种基于粒子群优化算法（PSO）的多峰最大功率点跟踪方法,并积累粒子个体搜索经验,提高跟踪速度。仿真表明,当外界条件变化时,此方法可以快速跟踪光伏模块的最大功率,从而有效地利用能源。     

基于STLS的卫星质量质心在轨估计

提出了一种使用结构总体最小二乘(Structured Total Least Squares,STLS)进行卫星质量和质心参数在轨估计的方法。其相对于现有方法有三个优点:采用完整的动力学模型,考虑敏感器测量误差,估计模型中不包含误差很大的推力值。首先推导了卫星质量和质心参数的估计方程,将其化为STLS模型的形式,对该模型定义了质量质心参数的STLS估计,并使用结构总体最小范数(Structured Total Least Norm,STLN)算法进行具体求解。证明了当敏感器噪声为高斯分布时,该估计为极大似然估计。仿真结果验证了该STLS估计方法的有效性。     

Solar signals in the minimum extreme temperature records in the southern region of the Gulf of Mexico

Minimum extreme temperature series from several meteorological stations of the Gulf of Mexico are spectrally analyzed using the Maximum Entropy Method.We obtained significant periodicities similar to those found in meteorological and solar activity phenomena. This indicates that probably the solar activity signals are present in the minimum extreme temperature records of this Mexican region.     

Guidepost-based autonomous orbit determination method for GEO satellite

Guidepost-based navigation system is a novel autonomous orbit determination method for the GEO satellite. The system is achieved by using the camera imaging function to obtain the guidepost images and the GNSS signal receiver to obtain the pseudoranges between the GEO and the navigation satellites. Due to the high altitude of GEO satellite and the time-varying sunlight condition in the space environment, it may be difficult to obtain object image points and the distance measurements of GNSS because of the weak visibility of the guideposts. To deal with the problem, a novel integrated orbit determination system is presented. The Earth landmarks, the in-orbit spacecraft and GNSS navigation satellites whose line-of-sights and the distance can be easily obtained are used at the same time as information for the GEO satellite navigation based on the observability conditions analysis. The observability of the GEO satellite navigation system is analyzed through the physical observability, the mathematical observability and the engineering observability through the observing geometry, the rank of observability matrix and the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) respectively. Besides, the maximum correntropy unscented Kalman filter (MCUKF) algorithm is applied to improve the estimation stability of the system in the presence of non-Gaussian noises. The simulation indicates the feasibility of the proposed scheme.