基于三因素模型的企业持续经营高风险预测研究

随着竞争的日趋激烈，企业持续经营不确定性显著增加，尽旱识别企业持续经营面临的风险，对于企业管理者、投资者来说都具有重要意义。现有的持续经营高风险研究依然没有摆脱“资料驱动型”的困境，文章根据三因素模型建立持续经营高风险预测模型。     

用特征根构造变系数线性最佳控制

本文研究单输入n阶常系数线性系统满足二次型指标(积分区间有限,终点给定为(o,…o)) 的最佳控制。所得结果使用户无需解Riccati方程,也不要用数值法解出两点边值问题,仅由这个两点边值问题的特征根即可构造变系数线性最佳控制。这个结果既适于低价(n=1,2,3)时用来写出变系数线性最佳控制的一般表达式(17)—(19),也适于高阶时用计算机计算,其程序已用FORTRAN-Ⅳ在AD三TAMAX-186机上实现。     

循环电载荷下大功率LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命预测

随着大功率发光二极管（LED）在照明领域的普及与广泛应用,可靠性逐渐成为研究的重点。大功率LED封装器件中金引线疲劳断裂失效一直是制约其可靠性的重要因素。通过针对大功率LED封装器件中的金引线力学仿真与功率循环试验相结合的方法,首先确定循环电载荷条件下该型LED的主要失效原因为金引线疲劳断裂,其次提出基于电流加速模型的加速因子提取方法和基于应变幅值的Coffin-Manson解析寿命预测方法,最终完成对LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命的预测和试验验证。研究结果表明:所提方法具有较高的寿命预测精度,可以满足大功率LED封装器件可靠性快速、准确评估的要求。      

J2轨道模型对月地激光通信预瞄准精度影响研究

基于J_2轨道预测模型,设计了不同倾角和轨道高度圆轨道月球卫星,通过将J_2轨道预测模型预瞄准仿真结果与直接积分RKF7(8)法仿真结果相对比,研究了不同类型月球卫星轨道对-Y面卫星舱板激光通信终端瞄准精度的影响。仿真结果表明,J_2轨道预测模型可以满足月球极地卫星月地激光通信要求,当轨道高度为1 000 km和2 000 km的时候,10 min方位角偏差不超过40μrad,而俯仰角偏差仅为7μrad时,在一定程度上J2轨道预测模型可以满足月地激光通信预瞄准要求。     

Modeling and analysis of mover gaps in tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motors

A tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motor (TMMLOM) has merits of high efficiency and excellent dynamic capability. To enhance the thrust performance, quasi-Halbach permanent magnet (PM) arrays are arranged on its mover in the application of a linear electro-hydrostatic actuator in more electric aircraft. The arrays are assembled by several individual segments, which lead to gaps between them inevitably. To investigate the effects of the gaps on the radial magnetic flux density and the machine thrust in this paper, an analytical model is built considering both axial and radial gaps. The model is validated by finite element simulations and experimental results. Distributions of the magnetic flux are described in condition of different sizes of radial and axial gaps. Besides, the output force is also discussed in normal and end windings. Finally, the model has demonstrated that both kinds of gaps have a negative effect on the thrust, and the linear motor is more sensitive to radial ones.     

高能(450 kV)X射线参考辐射场附加过滤研究

利用MCNP程序对450kV X光机建立模型，计算各参考辐射质下的原级谱、平均光子能量。对ISO 4037-1中已有范围的管电压与附加过滤片厚度关系曲线进行二次拟合，确定模拟厚度范围。利用MCNP计算各附加过滤组合下的平均光子能量值，并与外推法得出的平均光子能量值进行对比，将相对偏差最小时的附加过滤作为最终确定值。从部分能量点的模拟与测量结果的对比可看出，模拟得出的平均光子能量在2%以内与PTB及中国计量院测量结果保持一致，附加过滤最大相对偏差为18%。     

基于TLE的弹道系数计算方法及应用分析

针对仅使用两行要素（Two Line Element，TLE）作为数据源的应用需求，研究了基于TLE轨道衰减的弹道系数计算方法。介绍了一种常用的基于两组TLE的直接计算法，分析TLE选取间隔对结果精度的影响；提出了一种基于多组TLE的迭代计算方法，以降低异常TLE对计算结果的影响；从弹道系数计算效果、在再入预报中的应用等方面对这两种方法进行比较分析。结果表明，两种方法各有优劣，基于多组TLE的迭代计算法稳定性更高、受TLE精度的影响更小；由于数据区间更短，基于两组TLE的计算结果对短期轨道衰减特性反应得更准确，用于临近再入时的预报效果更好。     

Orbit determination and prediction of GEO satellite of BeiDou during repositioning maneuver

In order to establish a continuous GEO satellite orbit during repositioning maneuvers, a suitable maneuver force model has been established associated with an optimal orbit determination method and strategy. A continuous increasing acceleration is established by constructing a constant force that is equivalent to the pulse force, with the mass of the satellite decreasing throughout maneuver. This acceleration can be added to other accelerations, such as solar radiation, to obtain the continuous acceleration of the satellite. The orbit determination method and strategy are illuminated, with subsequent assessment of the orbit being determined and predicted accordingly. The orbit of the GEO satellite during repositioning maneuver can be determined and predicted by using C-Band pseudo-range observations of the BeiDou GEO satellite with COSPAR ID 2010-001A in 2011 and 2012. The results indicate that observations before maneuver do affect orbit determination and prediction, and should therefore be selected appropriately. A more precise orbit and prediction can be obtained compared to common short arc methods when observations starting 1 day prior the maneuver and 2 h after the maneuver are adopted in POD (Precise Orbit Determination). The achieved URE (User Range Error) under non-consideration of satellite clock errors is better than 2 m within the first 2 h after maneuver, and less than 3 m for further 2 h of orbit prediction.     

Carrier phase prediction method for GNSS precise positioning in challenging environment

Since the signals of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) are blocked frequently in challenging environments, the discontinuous carrier phases seriously affect the application of GNSS precise positioning. To improve the carrier phase continuity, this paper proposes a carrier phase prediction method based on carrier open-loop tracking. In the open-loop tracking mode, the carrier numerically controlled oscillator (NCO) is controlled by the predicted Doppler, but not by the loop filter output. To improve the phase prediction effective time, accurate receiver clock drift estimation is studied in the prediction method. The phase prediction performance is tested on GNSS software receiver. In the phase prediction effective time tests, open-loop processes were set for the tested channel. The test results show that, when some satellite signals are blocked in 15?s, the probability of carrier phase error less than quarter cycles is more than 94%. In the real time kinematic (RTK) positioning tests, some satellite signals are blocked in 10–15?s repeatedly. The test results show that, the carrier phase continuity is basically not affected by the signal interruption, and the RTK can almost keep continuous centimeter-level positioning accuracy without re-fixing the integer ambiguity.     

INTEGRATED GPS/INS OF PSEUDO-RANGE DELTA-RANGE SEMI-PHYSICAL SIMULATION'S RESEARCH

In order to further study the performance of tightly integrated navigation system of GPS/INS, a semi-physical simulation of tightly coupled system has been done based on the data gathered from the experiment of integrated system of GPS and INS. The closed-loop Kalman Filter and U-D discompose algorithm have been used. The simulation results associated to four integrated models of pseudo-range, delta-range, pseudo-range and delta-range alternation, and pseudo-range and delta-range synthesis have been provided, and the actual effects of variously integrated models have been analyzed. The results show that the pseudo-range and delta-range synthesis coupled model is the most effective to improve the coupled system performance and the individual delta-range coupled model had better be avoided in application.