数值模拟方法对NASA CRM模型阻力预测的影响

在复杂工程外形的数值模拟中，网格类型、规模和分布、湍流模型、数值格式等都会不同程度影响模拟结果。如何评估这些模拟方法对模拟结果的影响，并识别对模拟结果影响较显著的因素，对于CFD的发展方向有积极的借鉴指导意义。为了综合研究不同因素对商用运输机外形阻力预测的影响，以AIAA第六届阻力预测会议外形NASA CRM为研究对象，同时考虑了网格、湍流模型、无黏通量格式和体心梯度求解方法等因素对阻力预测的影响。分析中采用枚举法和正交试验设计两种方法，并使用了基于聚类分析的定性敏感性分析方法和基于Mckay主影响分析的定量方法，识别出对阻力预测影响较大的因素，这为数值模拟方法的发展指明了方向。     

某型飞机数字防滑刹车控制盒可靠性分析与设计

对某型飞机数字防滑刹车控制盒的可靠性进行了分析,利用工程加权法对控制盒进行了可靠性分配,并通过元器件可靠性预计法对控制盒的可靠性进行预计.对比及验证表明,控制盒可靠性设计合理,满足主机及系统要求.     

Atmospheric reentry hemisphere prediction for prograde orbits using logical disjunction

A unique logic-based algorithm for atmospheric reentry hemisphere prediction is presented for spacecraft in low-eccentricity, prograde low Earth orbits at altitudes of 300 km and lower. Using two-line element (TLE) data for initial orbit conditions, coupled with coarse estimates for spacecraft aerodynamic characteristics, the algorithm relies on logical disjunction operations based on a dual analysis of histogram and two-weighted Gaussian probability density function (PDF) fits of predicted reentry latitude data. The algorithm requires the execution of a series of parametric simulations to determine the reentry hemisphere for variations in spacecraft aerodynamic coefficients and drag reference area. When implemented, the algorithm yields accurate hemisphere predictions on average 15 days from reentry as demonstrated by historical reentry cases from 1979 to 2018. All reentry cases were selected to demonstrate the algorithm’s ability to deliver accurate reentry hemisphere predictions for spacecraft with varying physical size and mass, and reentering during different periods of solar cycle activity.     

Global ionospheric scintillations revealed by GPS radio occultation data with FY3C satellite before midnight during the March 2015 storm

Global observations of S4 amplitude scintillation index by the GPS Occultation Sounder (GNOS) on FengYun-3 C (FY3C) satellite reveal global dynamic patterns of a strong pre-midnight scintillations in F-region of the ionosphere during the St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic super storm of 17–19 March 2015. The observed strong scintillations mainly occurred in the low latitudes, caused by equatorial plasma bubbles. During the main storm phase (March 17), the scintillations were first triggered in the New Zealand sector near 160°E longitudes, extending beyond 40°S dip latitude. They were also enhanced in the Indian sector, but significantly suppressed in East Asia near 120°E longitude and in Africa around 30°E longitude. During the initial recovery phase (March 18–19), the global scintillations were seldom observed in GNOS data. During the later recovery phase (after March 19), the scintillations recovered to the pre-storm level in Indian, African, and American sectors, but not in East Asian and any of Pacific sectors. These results closely correlate with observations of the density depletion structures by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, and ground-based instruments. Such consistency indicates reliability of our scintillation sensing approach even in a case-by-case comparison study. The prompt penetration electric field and disturbance dynamo electric field are suggested as the main factors that control the enhancement and inhibition of the scintillations during the storm, respectively.     

Application of small-size antennas for estimation of angles of arrival of HF signals scattered by ionospheric irregularities

A modification of the Doppler Interferometry Technique is suggested to enable estimating angles of arrival of comparatively broadband HF signals scattered by random irregularities of the ionospheric plasma with the use of small-size weakly directional antennas. The technique is based on the measurements of cross-spectra phases of the probe radiation recorded at least in three spatially separated points. The developed algorithm has been used to investigate the angular and frequency-time characteristics of HF signals propagating at frequencies above the maximum usable one (MUF) for the direct radio path Moscow-Kharkiv. The received signal spectra show presence of three families of spatial components attributed, respectively, to scattering by plasma irregularities near the middle point of the radio path, ground backscatter signals and scattering of the sounding signals by the intense plasma turbulence associated with auroral activations. It has been shown that the regions responsible for the formation of the third family components are located well inside the auroral oval. The drift velocity and direction of the auroral ionosphere plasma have been determined. The obtained estimates are consistent with the classical conception of the ionospheric plasma convection at high latitudes and do not contradict the results of investigations of the auroral ionosphere dynamics using the SuperDARN network.     

基于雷达航迹的航空器质量估算

为保障基于轨迹运行的顺利实施,必须提高四维航迹预测的精度,而四维航迹的精准预测依赖于航空器质量准确估算。鉴于此,构建并分析了航空器能量模型;基于雷达航迹与航空器基础资料( BADA),提出了新型的航空器质量估算方法与步骤;利用最小二乘算法求解了航空器质量的估计值;分别基于预测航迹、雷达轨迹与QAR数据,采用相对误差作为评价指标,实施验证与分析。验证结果表明,提出的方法可将航空器质量估算误差控制在5%以内,从而能够有效地提高航迹预测精度。     

低轨卫星月影事件预报优化

针对卫星月影问题,提出了一种低轨卫星优化的月影预报策略,可以有效提高目前低轨卫星在轨管理时对月影事件预报的效率.结合仿真对产生月影事件的太阳、地球、月球的三体关系进行了分析,首先给出了月影产生的解析分析方法,并通过对一个三维月影影响模型的分析,得到了月影影响区间的判定要素——月影临界角;然后进一步通过对月影临界角的分析,提出了基于太阳与白道面的位置关系和月影临界角对低轨卫星月影事件的优化预报方法;最后基于大量的随机低轨卫星场景对本方法的正确性进行了验证.研究结果表明,此方法能够较大地提高月影预报效率,可以将月影预报频率从每月1次降低到每年2次,从而简化了低轨卫星在轨运行管理的任务复杂度,为卫星的在轨可靠运行提供支持.     

基于GARCH族优选模型的舰船器材消耗预测

器材消耗量预测是做好技术保障工作的前提和基础,受设备生命周期、任务类型、海洋环境及使用设备人员的技能水平等因素的影响,舰船器材消耗量序列会随着时间的推移而产生波动现象,丛集效应和高峰厚尾特征明显。根据 AIC(A-Information Criterion)准则,对 GARCH(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity)族模型进行比较优选,寻求一种更为合适的预测模型,实现对消耗量的准确预测。     

小样本条件下多应力加速寿命试验预测方法

鉴于导弹中的电子设备价格昂贵、可用于试验的样本量少,在开展加速试验以及寿命预测的实际工作中通常为小样本的背景。文章研究探索小样本条件下多应力加速试验寿命预测方法,分别建立通用对数线性模型、 BAS-BP神经网络模型、灰色–支持向量回归模型,结合多应力加速试验数据在各应力条件下的样本容量分别为 56组、20组、10组、5组的情况下,比较 3种模型的预测效果,分析各模型的适用场合和时机,探索小样本条件下模型的选优问题,为小样本条件下多应力加速试验寿命预测提供有益的借鉴。     

GPS卫星信标信噪比的统计分析

GPS卫星信标信噪比(SNR)受到卫星上的发射机增益、地面站的接收机增益、卫星与接收机之间的几何距离、接收机处的仰角、信标传播路径上电离层介质衰减等因素的共同影响.首先提出了一种从SNR观测数据中分离出SNR在电离层中衰减的算法,并应用于MANA接收站(273.751°E,12.149°N)2003年的观测数据,得到了一个电离层介质引起的对L波段信标SNR衰减日变化的平均情况.通过与IRI模式计算的电波垂直穿过电离层时衰减的SNR比较发现,由我们得到的SNR在电波垂直穿过电离层时的衰减与IRI模式计算的衰减随地方时的变化符合得比较好.