Predicting the probability of occurrence of spread-F over Brazil using neural networks

The probability of occurrence of spread-F can be modeled and predicted using neural networks (NNs). This paper presents a feasibility study into the development of a NN based model for the prediction of the probability of occurrence of spread-F over selected equatorial stations within the Brazilian sector. The input space included the day number (seasonal variation), hour (diurnal variation), sunspot number (measure of the solar activity), magnetic index (measure of the magnetic activity) and magnetic position. Twelve years of spread-F data from Brazil (covering the period 1978–1989) measured at the equatorial site Fortaleza (3.9°S, 38.45°W) and low latitude site Cachoeira Paulista (22.6°S, 45.0°W) are used in the development of an input space and NN architecture for the model. Spread-F data that is believed to be related to plasma bubble developments (range spread-F) was used in the development of the model. The model results show the probability of spread-F occurrence as a function of local time, season and latitude. Results from the Brazilian Sector NN (BSNN) based model are presented in this paper, as well as a comparative analysis with a Brazilian model developed for the same purpose.     

Epochwise prediction of GPS single differenced ionospheric delays of formation flying spacecraft

Both single and dual frequency GPS relative navigation filters may benefit from proper predictions of single differenced ionospheric delays. In this article, the single differenced ionospheric delays of GPS observations are predicted for the GRACE formation during the switch manoeuvre.Two prediction methods are considered. The first is based on a Taylor expansion to first order of a mapping function that maps slant total electron content measurements to vertical total electron content estimates. The second method fits a shape profile through undifferenced ionospheric data available. It then raytraces through this profile to estimate the difference in total electron content along the path of the GPS signals.Continuously changing ionospheric conditions hamper the assessment of the quality of the predictions. Comparison of both methods shows that the raytracing method performs better. The difference of predictions and measurements generally shows a smaller RMS than the measurements alone. However, both methods suffer from a number of systematically unpredicted observations, which arise from small unaccounted differential variations in electron densities along the path of the GPS signals. These prediction methods perform better when spacecraft separation is small. Baselines considered here range from tens of kilometres down to several hundred metres. When smallest spacecraft separation occurs (0.4 km), the single differenced ionospheric delays exhibit RMS values of 0.0089 m. The first method shows a difference between measurements and predictions with an RMS of 0.0081 m. For the second method the difference RMS is found to be 0.0067 m.     

The variability and predictability of the IRI B0, B1 parameters over Grahamstown,South Africa

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) parameters B₀ and B₁ provide a representation of the thickness and shape, respectively, of the F2 layer of the bottomside ionosphere. These parameters can be derived from electron density profiles that are determined from vertical incidence ionograms. This paper aims to illustrate the variability of these parameters for a single mid latitude station and demonstrate the ability of the Neural Network (NN) modeling technique for developing a predictive model for these parameters. Grahamstown, South Africa (33.3°S, 26.5°E) was chosen as the mid latitude station used in this study and the B₀ and B₁ parameters for an 11 year period were determined from electron density profiles recorded at that station with a University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Atmospheric Research (UMLCAR) Digisonde. A preliminary single station NN model was then developed using the Grahamstown data from 1996 to 2005 as a training database, and input parameters known to affect the behaviour of the F2 layer, such as day number, hour, solar and magnetic indices. An analysis of the diurnal, seasonal and solar variations of these parameters was undertaken for the years 2000, 2005 and 2006 using hourly monthly median values. Comparisons between the values derived from measured data and those predicted using the two available IRI-2001 methods (IRI tables and Gulyaeva, T. Progress in ionospheric informatics based on electron density profile analysis of ionograms. Adv. Space Res. 7(6), 39–48, 1987.) and the newly developed NN model are also shown in this paper. The preliminary NN model showed that it is feasible to use the NN technique to develop a prediction tool for the IRI thickness and shape parameters and first results from this model reveal that for the mid latitude location used in this study the NN model provides a more accurate prediction than the current IRI model options.     

中纬电离层理论模式研究

本文利用谱方法建立起一维时变中纬度电离层理论模式．模式比较周密地考虑了中纬度地区电离层的主要动力学过程和光化学过程．模式的突出优点是计算耗时少．我们对日本Wakkanai站进行了模拟计算,模拟结果同实验结果符合得较好．     

平面磁流体波穿透圆柱面分层赤道电离层和大气层的理论

给出了平面磁流体快波穿透圆柱面分层模型的赤道电离层和大气层的理论．平面磁流体快波被分解成柱面波,柱面波在圆柱分层介质中的传播被化为一个两点边值问题,给出了所需统治方程和边界条件．     

Response of low latitude D-region ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 deduced from ELF/VLF analysis

Response of the D-region of the ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 at low latitude, Varanasi (Geog. lat., 25.27° N; Geog. long., 82.98° E; Geomag. lat. = 14° 55’ N) was investigated using ELF/VLF radio signal. Tweeks, a naturally occurring VLF signal and radio signals from various VLF navigational transmitters are first time used simultaneously to study the effect of total solar eclipse (TSE). Tweeks occurrence is a nighttime phenomena but the obscuration of solar disc during TSE in early morning leads to tweek occurrence. The changes in D-region ionospheric VLF reflection heights (h) and electron density (n_e: 22.6–24.6 cm⁻³) during eclipse have been estimated from tweek analysis. The reflection height increased from ∼89 km from the first occurrence of tweek to about ∼93 km at the totality and then decreased to ∼88 km at the end of the eclipse, suggesting significant increase in tweek reflection height of about 5.5 km during the eclipse. The reflection heights at the time of totality during TSE are found to be less by 2–3 km as compared to the usual nighttime tweek reflection heights. This is due to partial nighttime condition created by TSE. A significant increase of 3 dB in the strength of the amplitude of VLF signal of 22.2 kHz transmitted from JJI-Japan is observed around the time of the total solar eclipse (TSE) as compared to a normal day. The modeled electron density height profile of the lower ionosphere depicts linear variation in the electron density with respect to solar radiation as observed by tweek analysis also. These low latitude ionospheric perturbations on the eclipse day are discussed and compared with other normal days.     

利用GPS技术实时监测上海区域电离层变化

基于GPS技术实时监测电离层变化原理, 利用载波平滑伪距观测值建立区域电离层模型的方法, 计算了电离层延迟量和硬件延迟, 根据硬件延迟值相对稳定的特点, 采取一定时段求解出硬件延迟量, 对实时硬件延迟量进行预报, 进而实时分离GPS信号传播路径上的垂直总电子含量VTEC. 利用上海区域内的GPS网的观测数据, 建立实时上海区域电离层延迟模型, 监测上海区域的电离层变化. 数据分析结果表明, 这种方法的内符合精度优于3 TECU.      

Refinement of global ionospheric coefficients for GNSS applications: Methodology and results

We developed the methodology for the optimal estimation of global ionospheric coefficients of the current Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs), including the eight- and ten-parameter Klobuchar-like as well as NeQuick models. The ionospheric coefficients of those correction models are calculated from two sets of globally distributed tracking stations of the International GNSS Services (IGS). Performance of the re-estimated Klobuchar-like and NeQuick coefficients are validated during 2002–2014 over the continental and oceanic areas, respectively. Over the continental areas, GPS TECs derived from 40 ground GPS receivers are selected as reference. The eight-, ten-parameter Klobuchar-like and NeQuick models can mitigate the ionospheric delay by 65.8, 67.3 and 75.0%, respectively. Over the global oceans, the independent TECs derived from Jason-1&2 altimeters are used as reference. The re-estimated ionospheric correction models can mitigate 56.1–66.7% of the delay errors. Compared to the original GPS Ionospheric Correction Algorithm (ICA), performance of those eight-, ten-parameter Klobuchar-like and NeQuick models has improved 3.4, 5.9 and 13.4% during the whole test period, respectively. The methodology developed here takes the advantage of high-quality ionospheric TECs derived from the global network of GNSS receivers. The re-estimated ionospheric coefficients can be used as precise ionospheric products to monitor and assess GNSS broadcast ionospheric parameters and to improve the performance of various single-frequency GNSS applications.     

Precision analysis of troposphere sensing using GPS single-frequency signals

Various studies have been performed to investigate the accuracy of troposphere zenith wet delays (ZWDs) determined from GPS. Most of these studies use dual-frequency GPS data of large-scale networks with long baselines to determine the absolute ZWDs. For small-scale networks the estimability of the absolute ZWDs deteriorates due to high correlation between the solutions of the ZWDs and satellite-specific parameters as satellite clocks. However, as relative ZWDs (rZWDs) can always be estimated, irrespective of the size of the network, it is of interest to understand how the large-scale network rZWD-performance of dual-frequency GPS using an ionosphere-float model compares to the small-scale network rZWD-performance of single-frequency GPS using an ionosphere-weighted model. In this contribution such an analysis is performed using undifferenced and uncombined network parametrization modelling. In this context we demonstrate the ionosphere weighted constraints, which allows the determination of the rZWDs independent from signals on the second frequency. Based on an analysis of both simulated and real data, it is found that under quiet ionosphere conditions, the accuracy of the single-frequency determined rZWDs in the ionosphere-weighted network is comparable to that of the large-scale dual-frequency network without ionospheric constraints. Making use of the real data from two baselines of 15?days, it was found that the absolute differences of the rZWDs applying the two strategies are within 1?cm in over 90% and 95% of the time for ambiguity-float and -fixed cases, respectively.     

基于伴随理论的Spread-F最优初值扰动提取研究及数值模拟

通过讨论Spread-F扰动初值对于研究R-T不稳定性的必要性,分析初值扰动提取在人工诱导电离层方面的重要作用, 首次提出了应用伴随理论将电离层不稳定性基本方程与Spread-F观测资料相结合提取其扰动初值的方法. 推导了电离层不稳定性方程的伴随模式并进行数值模拟实验, 结果表明电离层不稳定性方程能够较好描述 Spread-F的发展过程; 伴随模式在利用不同迭代初值以及不同时刻观测资料进行反演时, 均能得到较为理想的结果, 表明利用伴随模式反演电离层 Spread-F初始扰动是可行的.