Modeling M(3000)F2 based on extreme learning machine

This paper presents an novel extreme learning machine (ELM)-based prediction model for the ionospheric propagation factor M(3000)F2 at Darwin station (12.4°S, 131.5°E; −44.5°dip) in Australia. The proposed ELM model is trained with hourly daily values of M(3000)F2 from the period 1998–2014 except 2001 and 2009. The hourly daily values of 2001 (high solar activity) and 2009 (low solar activity) are used for validating the prediction accuracy. The proposed ELM for modeling M(3000)F2 can achieve faster training process and similar testing accuracy compared with backward propagation neural network (BPNN). In addition, the performance of the ELM is verified by comparing the predicted values of M(3000)F2 with observed values and the international reference ionosphere (IRI −2016) model predicted values. Based on the error differences (the root mean square error (RMSE) and the M(3000)F2 percentage improvement values M(3000)F2_IMP(%)), the result demonstrates the effectiveness of the ELM model compared with the IRI-2016 model at hourly, daily, monthly, and yearly in high (2001) and low (2009) solar activity years. The ELM also shows good agreement with observations compared with the IRI during disturbed magnetic activity.     

On the detection of anomalous seismo-ionospheric behavior in the presence of space weather stimuli for large earthquakes

Anomalous behavior of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) prior to earthquake has been observed in many studies. Evidence of such seismo-ionospheric coupling effects suggests that it is plausible to rely on TEC signatures for early earthquake warning. However, the detection of pre-earthquake TEC anomalies (PETA) has not been adopted in practice due to two pertinent issues. Firstly, the effects of space weather activity can affect TEC levels and cause anomalous behavior in the TEC. Usually arbitrary thresholds are set for space weather indices to eliminate TEC anomaly due to space weather effects. Secondly, the choice regarding moving time-window length used to characterise background variation of TEC within the statistical envelope approach has an effect on detection of PETA. While the rule-of-thumb in selecting the moving window length is to have a time window capable of capturing background variability and short-term fluctuations, the length of the time window used in the literature varies with little justification. In this study, a critical examination is conducted on the statistical envelope approach and in particular, to eliminate the effect of space weather activity without the use of arbitrary space indices to detect PETA. A two-part PETA identification procedure is proposed, consisting of wavelet analyses isolating non-earthquake TEC contributions, followed by the statistical envelope method using a moving window length standardized based on observed periodicities and statistical implications is suggested. The approach is tested on a database of 30 large earthquakes (M?≥?7.0). The proposed procedure shows that PETA can be detected prior to earthquakes at higher confidence levels without the need to separately check for space weather activity. More importantly, the procedure was able to detect PETA for studies where it was previously reported that PETA could not be detected or detected convincingly.     

Characterization of the low latitude plasma density irregularities observed using C/NOFS and SCINDA data

Complex electrodynamic processes over the low latitude region often result in post sunset plasma density irregularities which degrade satellite communication and navigation. In order to forecast the density irregularities, their occurrence time, duration and location need to be quantified. Data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite was used to characterize the low latitude ion density irregularities from 2011 to 2013. This was supported by ground based data from the SCIntillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) receivers at Makerere (Geographic coordinate 32.6°E, 0.3°N, and dip latitude ?9.3°N) and Nairobi (Geographic coordinate 36.8°E, ?1.3°N, and dip latitude ?10.8°N). The results show that irregularities in ion density have a daily pattern with peaks from 20:00 to 24:00 Local Time (LT). Scintillation activity at L band and VHF over East Africa peaked in 2011 and 2012 from 20:00 to 24:00 LT, though in many cases scintillation at VHF persisted longer than that at L band. A longitudinal pattern in ion density irregularity occurrence was observed with peaks over 135–180°E and 270–300°E. The likelihood of ion density irregularity occurrence decreased with increasing altitude. Analysis of C/NOFS zonal ion drift velocities showed that the largest nighttime and daytime drifts were in 270–300°E and 300–330°E longitude regions respectively. Zonal irregularity drift velocities over East Africa were for the first time estimated from L-band scintillation indices. The results show that the velocity of plasma density irregularities in 2011 and 2012 varied daily, and hourly in the range of 50–150 m s^?1. The zonal drift velocity estimates from the L-band scintillation indices had good positive correlation with the zonal drift velocities derived from VHF receivers by the spaced receiver technique.     

A method for automatic detection and characterization of plasma bubbles using GPS and BDS data

Detecting and characterizing Total Electron Content (TEC) depletion is important for studying the ionospheric threat due to the Equatorial Plasma Bubble (EPB) when applying the Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS) at low latitudes. This paper develops a robust method to automatically identify TEC depletion and derive its parameters. The rolling barrel algorithm is used to automatically identify the TEC depletion candidate and its parameters. Then, the depletion candidates are screened by several improved techniques to distinguish actual depletions from other phenomena such as Traveling Ionospheric Disturbance (TID) or abnormal data. Next, based on the depletion signals from three triangular receivers, the method derives EPB parameters such as velocity, width and gradient. The time lag and front velocity are calculated based on cross-correlation using TEC depletions and the geometrical distribution of three triangular receivers. The width and gradient of slope are then determined by using TEC depletion from a single receiver. By comparison, both the station-pair method and proposed method depend on the assumption that the EPB morphology is frozen during the short time when the plasma bubble moves between the receivers. However, our method relaxes the restriction that the baseline length should be shorter than the width of slope required by the station-pair. This relaxation is favorable for studying small-scale slope of depletions using stations of a longer baseline. In addition, the accuracy of the width and gradient is free of impact from hardware biases and small-scale disturbance, as it is based only on the relative TEC variation. The method is demonstrated by processing Global Positioning System (GPS) and BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) data on 15 August, 2018, in a solar minimum cycle.     

HELIO: The Heliophysics Integrated Observatory

Heliophysics is a new research field that explores the Sun–Solar System Connection; it requires the joint exploitation of solar, heliospheric, magnetospheric and ionospheric observations.     

GPS derived ionospheric TEC response to geomagnetic storm on 24 August 2005 at Indian low latitude stations

Results pertaining to the response of the low latitude ionosphere to a major geomagnetic storm that occurred on 24 August 2005 are presented. The dual frequency GPS data have been analyzed to retrieve vertical total electron content at two Indian low latitude stations (IGS stations) Hyderabad (Geographic latitude 17°20′N, Geographic longitude 78°30′E, Geomagnetic latitude 8.65°N) and Bangalore (Geographic latitude 12°58′N, Geographic longitude 77°33′E, Geomagnetic latitude 4.58°N). These results show variation of GPS derived total electron content (TEC) due to geomagnetic storm effect, local low latitude electrodynamics response to penetration of high latitude convection electric field and effect of modified fountain effect on GPS–TEC in low latitude zone.     

Peculiarities of the nighttime winter foF2 increase over Irkutsk

An analysis of properties and peculiarities of the nighttime winter foF2 increases (NWI) in the East Siberia is made on data of ionospheric station Irkutsk in the periods 1958–1992 and 2002–2009 and the empirical model of the F2 layer critical frequency under the geomagnetic quiet conditions deduced from these data (model Q-F2). It is revealed, that the NWI is the stable regularity of the quiet ionosphere over Irkutsk. The amplitude of the NWI (the difference between maximum and minimum foF2 values at night hours) is the greatest in December–January and nearly the same at low and middle solar activity. It is a peculiarity of the quiet ionosphere in the East Siberia. Maximum in night foF2 under quiet geomagnetic conditions is observed mainly after midnight (02-04 LT) and is shifted to predawn hours as solar activity increases. At low solar activity the quiet ionosphere at ∼02–04 LT shows the following properties: (a) the fluctuations of foF2 and hmF2 are in the reverse correlation but this dependence is weak; (b) very strong fluctuations of foF2 (|δfoF2| > 30%) occur seldom (∼4% of events) and almost all of them are positive; an example of very strong fluctuations of foF2 up to 60% can be an extreme increase in the foF2 on 19.12.2008; (c) the very strong enhancements of foF2 in the NWI maximum can be observed at the low geomagnetic activity, they occur more often during substorms but very seldom during geomagnetic storms. Possible reasons of these properties of NWI are discussed.     

Some effects in the upper atmosphere during geomagnetic storms

This paper examines the response of the high latitude ionosphere–thermosphere system during two intense geomagnetic storms. For that, data taken by instruments on board Dynamic Explorer 2 taken at heights of the F2-layer are used. These results represent a comparison of simultaneous measurements of storm disturbances in gas composition, electron density and temperature in common local time sectors. Documented are an increase in electron temperature and a decrease in electron density; increases both in electron temperature and electron density; and the correlation between electron density decreases and increases in the ratio N₂/O. It is noticed that the decrease in electron density is sometimes due to an increase in the molecular nitrogen density N₂ and not always is attributed both to the increase in N₂ density and the simultaneous decrease in the atomic oxygen density.     

Ionospheric F-region response to geomagnetic disturbances

The F2-region reaction to geomagnetic storms usually called as an ionospheric storm is a rather complicated event. It consists of so called positive and negative phases, which have very complicated spatial and temporal behavior. The main morphological features of ionospheric storms and the main processes governing their behavior were understood at the end of the 1900s and described in a series of review papers. During the recent decade there were many publications dedicated to the problem of ionospheric storms. In this paper a concept of ionospheric storm morphology and physics formulated at the end of the 1990s is briefly summarized and the most interesting results obtained in the 2000s are described. It is shown that the main features of the studies of the previous decade were: the use of GPS TEC data for analyzing the ionospheric storm morphology, attraction of sophisticated theoretical models for studying the processes governing ionospheric behavior in disturbed conditions, and accent to analysis of ionospheric behavior during prominent events (very strong and great geomagnetic storms). Also a special attention was paid to the pre-storm enhancements in foF2 and TEC.     

Using GPS-TEC data to calibrate VTEC computed with the IRI model over Nigeria

This paper presents the development of a Total Electron Content (TEC) map for the Nigerian ionosphere. In this work, TEC measurements obtained from the AFRL-SCINDA GPS (Air Force Research Laboratory-Scintillation Network Decision Aid, Global Positioning System) equipment installed at Nsukka (6.87°N, 7.38°E) are used to adapt the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model for the Nigerian Ionosphere. The map is being developed as a computer program (implemented in the MATLAB programming language) that shows spatial and temporal representations of TEC for the Nigerian ionosphere. The method is aimed at showing how the IRI model can be used to estimate VTEC over wide areas by incorporating GPS measurements. This method is validated by using GPS VTEC data collected from a station in Ilorin (8.50°N, 4.55°E).