Research on the disturbance of ballistic missile to ionosphere by using 3D ray tracing method

This study uses the 3D ray tracing to analyse ionospheric disturbance generated by a ballistic missile plume (which was simulated in our previous work). Ray tracing results show that the 6 MHz radio waves are completely reflected by the ionosphere and cannot reach the ionospheric disturbance zone. The 8 MHz radio waves partially penetrate the ionospheric disturbance zone, producing a focusing effect. Most of the 10 MHz radio waves pass through the ionosphere and the disturbance zone. The focusing effect and focus height are reduced. In the height range 65̃400 km, the ray absorption loss of reflection is greater than the transmitted ray. When the ray is reflected multiple times in the cavity formed by the plume, ray absorption loss greatly increases.     

The lower ionosphere response to its disturbances by powerful radio waves

The paper presents data from some campaigns at Sura heating facility in 2011–1016. The experiments on probing of the artificial disturbed region of the lower ionosphere were carried out at two observation sites. One of them was located near Vasil’sursk 1 km from Sura facility (56.1°N; 46.1°E) and the other site was located at the Observatory (55.85°N; 48.8°E) of Kazan State University, 170 km to the East. Investigation of the features of the disturbed region of the lower ionosphere based on its diagnostics by the methods of the vertical sounding and oblique backscattering is the main goal of this paper. Ionosphere disturbance was fulfilled by the effect of the powerful radio wave of the ordinary or extraordinary polarization emitted by transmitters of the Sura facility with effective radiated power ERP = 50–120 MW at the frequency of 4.3, 4.7 and 5.6 MHz. Pumping waves were emitted with period from 30 s to 15 min. The disturbed region of the ionosphere in Vasil’sursk was probed by the vertical sounding technique using the partial reflexion radar at the frequency of 2.95 and 4.7 MHz. For the oblique sounding of the disturbed region the modified ionosonde Cyclon-M, operating at ten frequencies from 2.01 to 6.51 MHz was used at the Observatory site. On many heating sessions simultaneous variations of the probing partial reflection signals in Vasil’sursk and backscattered signals in Observatory were observed at the height at 40–100 km below the reflection height of the pumping wave. These observations were correlated with the pumping periods of the Sura facility. Possible mechanisms of the appearance of the disturbance in the lower ionosphere and its effect on the probing radio waves are discussed.     

Adaptation of the bottomside electron density profile of the IRI model to data of topside radiosounding

A method is proposed for reconstructing the electron density profiles N(h) of the IRI model from ionograms of topside satellite sounding of the ionosphere. An ionograms feature is the presence of traces of signal reflection from the Earth's surface. The profile reconstruction is carried out in two stages. At the first stage, the N(h) –profile is calculated from the lower boundary of the ionosphere to the satellite height (total profile) by the method presented in this paper using the ionogram. In this case, the monotonic profile of the topside ionosphere is calculated by the classical method. The profile of the inner ionosphere is represented by analytical functions, the parameters of which are calculated by optimization methods using traces of signal reflection, both from the topside ionosphere and from the Earth. At the second stage, the profile calculated from the ionogram is used to obtain the key parameters: the height of the maximum hmF2 of the F2 layer, the critical frequency foF2, the values of B0 and B1, which determine the profile shape in the F region in the IRI model. The input of key parameters, time of observation, and coordinates of sounding into the IRI model allows obtaining the IRI-profile corrected to real experimental conditions. The results of using the data of the ISIS-2 satellite show that the profiles calculated from the ionograms and the IRI profiles corrected from them are close to each other in the inner ionosphere and can differ significantly in the topside ionosphere. This indicates the possibility of obtaining a profile in the inner ionosphere close to the real distribution, which can significantly expand the information database useful for the IRTAM (IRI Realmax Assimilative Modeling) model. The calculated profiles can be used independently for local ionospheric research.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Ionospheric correction using GPS Klobuchar coefficients with an empirical night-time delay model

We proposed an ionospheric correction approach called NKlob to mitigate the ionospheric delay errors. NKlob is a modification of the original GPS Ionospheric Correction Algorithm (ICA), which uses an empirical night-time model depending on the time, geomagnetic location and periodicities of the ionospheric behavior to replace the night-time constant delay in GPS ICA. Performance of NKlob was evaluated by the independent total electron contents (TECs) derived from Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) of the International GNSS Services (IGS) and Jason-2 altimetry satellite during 2013–2017. Compared to GIM TECs, NKlob corrects 51.5% of the ionospheric delay errors, which outperforms GPS ICA by 6.3%. Compared to Jason-2 TECs, NKlob mitigates the ionospheric errors by 58.1%, which is approximately 3.7% better than that of GPS ICA. NKlob shows significant improvement in low-latitude and equatorial regions with respect to GPS ICA, meanwhile exhibiting comparable performance at middle and high latitudes. Since NKlob only requires slight technical changes at the processing level of GPS receivers, we suppose that it can be easily implemented for better ionospheric delay corrections of real-time GPS single-frequency applications.     

Comparison of GPS-TEC measurements with NeQuick2 and IRI model predictions in the low latitude East African region during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015)

This paper examines the performances of NeQuick2, the latest available IRI-2016, IRI-2012 and IRI-2007 models in describing the monthly and seasonal mean total electron content (TEC) over the East African region. This is to gain insight into the success of the various model types and versions at characterizing the ionosphere within the equatorial ionization anomaly. TEC derived from five Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers installed at Addis Ababa (ADD, 5.33°N, 111.99°E Geog.), Asab (ASAB, 8.67°N, 116.44°E Geog.), Ambo (ABOO, 5.43°N, 111.05°E Geog.), Nairobi (RCMN, ?4.48°N, 108.46°E Geog.) and Nazret (NAZR, 4.78°N, 112.43°E Geog.), are compared with the corresponding values computed using those models during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015). We found that different models describe the equatorial and anomaly region ionosphere best depending on solar cycle, season and geomagnetic activity levels. Our results show that IRI-2016 is the best model (compared to others in terms of discrepancy range) in estimating the monthly mean GPS-TEC at NAZR, ADD and RCMN stations except at ADD during 2008 and 2012. It is also found that IRI-2012 is the best model in estimating the monthly mean TEC at ABOO station in 2014. IRI show better agreement with observations during June solstice for all the years studied at ADD except in 2012 where NeQuick2 better performs. At NAZR, NeQuick2 better performs in estimating seasonal mean GPS-TEC during 2011, while IRI models are best during 2008–2009. Both NeQuick2 and IRI models underestimate measured TEC for all the seasons at ADD in 2010 but overestimate at NAZR in 2009 and RCMN in 2008. The periodic variations of experimental and modeled TEC have been compared with solar and geomagnetic indices at ABOO and ASAB in 2014 and results indicate that the F10.7 and sunspot number as indices of solar activity seriously affects the TEC variations with periods of 16–32?days followed by the geomagnetic activity on shorter timescales (roughly periods of less than 16?days). In this case, NeQuick2 derived TEC shows better agreement with a long term period variations of GPS-TEC, while IRI-2016 and IRI-2007 show better agreement with observations during short term periodic variations. This indicates that the dependence of NeQuick2 derived TEC on F10.7 is seasonal. Hence, we suggest that representation of geomagnetic activity indices is required for better performance over the low latitude region.     

Calibration of IRI–ITU-R peak density and height over the oceans with topside sounding data

Accuracy of IRI electron density profile depends on the F2 layer peak density and height converted by empirical formulae from the critical frequency and M3000F2 factor provided by the ITU-R (former CCIR). The CCIR/ITU-R maps generated from ground-based ionosonde measurements suffer from model assumptions, in particular, over the oceans where relatively few measurements are available due to a scarcity of ground-based ionosondes. In the present study a grid-point calibration of IRI/ITU-R maps for the foF2 and hmF2 over the oceans is proposed using modeling results based on the topside true-height profiles provided by ISIS1, ISIS2, IK-19 and Cosmos-1809 satellites for the period of 1969–1987. Topside soundings results are compared with IRI and the Russian standard model of ionosphere, SMI, and grouped to provide an empirical calibration coefficient to the peak density and height generated from ITU-R maps. The grid-point calibration coefficients maps are produced in terms of the solar activity, geodetic latitude and longitude, universal time and season allowing update of IRI–ITU-R predictions of the F2 layer peak parameters.     

An investigation of ionospheric disturbances over South Africa during the magnetic storm on 15 May 2005

The effects of the 15 May 2005 severe geomagnetic storm on the South African ionosphere are studied using ground-based and satellite observations. Ionospheric disturbances have less frequently been investigated over mid-latitude regions. Recently, a number of studies investigated their evolution and generation over these regions. This paper reports on the first investigation of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) over mid-latitude South Africa. Using global positioning system (GPS)-derived total electron content (TEC) variations from the South African network of dual frequency GPS receivers, we were able to examine the effects of the disturbance on the TEC. During this storm, two TEC enhancements were observed at low- and mid-latitudes: the first enhancement was observed between 30–45°S geomagnetic latitudes associated with equatorward neutral winds and the passage of a TID, while the second TEC enhancement is associated with a second TID. In addition, the F-region critical frequency (foF2) values observed at two ionosonde stations show response features that differ from those of the TEC during the disturbance period. The dissimilarity between the TEC and the foF2 suggests that two competing drivers may have existed, i.e., the westward electric field and equatorward neutral wind effects.     

A 12 year comparison of MIDAS and IRI 2007 ionospheric Total Electron Content

Data assimilation in conventional meteorological applications uses measurements in conjunction with a physical model. In the case of the ionised region of the upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, assimilation techniques are much less mature. The empirical model known as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) could be used to augment data-sparse regions in an ionospheric now-cast and forecast system. In doing so, it is important that it does not introduce systematic biases to the result. Here, the IRI model is compared to ionospheric observations from the Global Positioning System satellites over Europe and North America. Global Positioning System data are processed into hour-to-hour monthly averages of vertical Total Electron Content using a tomographic technique. A period of twelve years, from January 1998 to December 2009, is analysed in order to capture variations over the whole solar cycle. The study shows that the IRI model underestimates Total Electron Content in the daytime at solar maximum by up to 37% compared to the monthly average of GPS tomographic images, with the greatest differences occurring at the equinox. IRI shows good agreement at other times. Errors in TEC are likely due to peak height and density inaccuracies. IRI is therefore a suitable model for specification of monthly averages of Total Electron Content and can be used to initialise a data assimilation process at times away from solar maximum. It may be necessary to correct for systematic deviations from IRI at solar maximum, and to incorporate error estimation into a data assimilation scheme.