Solar and interplanetary origins of the November 2004 superstorms

During the first half of November 2004, many solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were associated with solar active region (AR) 10696. This paper attempts to identify the solar and interplanetary origins of two superstorms which occurred on 8 and 10 November with peak intensities of Dst = −373 nT and −289 nT, respectively. Southward interplanetary magnetic fields within a magnetic cloud (MC), and a sheath + MC were the causes of these two superstorms, respectively. Two different CME propagation models [Gopalswamy, N., Yashiro, S., Kaiser, M.L. et al. Predicting the 1-AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 29207–29219, 2001; Gopalswamy, N.S., Lara, A., Manoharan, P.K. et al. An empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary shocks. Adv. Space Res. 36, 2289–2294, 2005] were employed to attempt to identify the solar sources. It is found that the models identify several potential CMEs as possible sources for each of the superstorms. The two Gopalswamy et al. models give the possible sources for the first superstorm as CMEs on 2330 UT 4 November 2004 or on 1454 UT 5 November 2004. For the second superstorm, the possible solar source was a CME that on 0754 UT 5 November 2004 or one that occurred on 1206 UT 5 November 2004. We note that other propagation models sometimes agree and other times disagree with the above results. It is concluded that during high solar/interplanetary activity intervals such as this one, the exact solar source is difficult to identify. More refined propagation models are needed.     

Nighttime ionosphere–thermosphere coupling observed during an intense geomagnetic storm

The electrodynamics of the ionosphere in the tropical region presents various scientific aspects, which remain subject of intensive investigations and debates by the scientific community. During the year 2002, in a joint project between the Universidade do Vale do Paraíba (UNIVAP) and Universidade Luterana do Brasil (ULBRA), a chain of three Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosondes (CADIs) was established nearly along the geomagnetic meridian direction, for tropical ionospheric studies, such as, changes and response due to geomagnetic disturbances and thermosphere–ionosphere coupling and the generation and dynamics of ionospheric irregularities, in the Brazilian sector. The locations of the three ionosondes stations are São José dos Campos (23.2°S, 45.9°W, dip latitude 17.6°S – under the southern crest of equatorial ionospheric anomaly), Palmas (10.2°S, 48.2°W, dip latitude 5.5°S – near the magnetic equator) and Manaus (2.9°S, 60.0°W, dip latitude 6.4°N – between the geographic and geomagnetic dip equators). It should be pointed out that Palmas and Manaus are located on the opposite sides of the magnetic equator but both are south of the geographic equator. The three CADIs work in time-synchronized mode and obtain ionograms every 5 min. This configuration of the ionospheric sounding stations allowed us to study the F-region dynamics during geomagnetically disturbed period in the meridional direction. Just after the installation and testing of the three CADIs, on September 05, 2002 a coronal mass ejection (CME) left the Sun and about 2 days after the CME left the Sun, it reached the Earth’s magnetosphere and complex and multi step events took place during the period September 07–09. In the study we note that the equatorial stations located north (Manaus, dip latitude 6.4°N) and south (Palmas, dip latitude 5.5°S) of the dip equator presented significant F-layer height asymmetries during the storm main phase. In addition, the low-latitude station SJC (dip latitude 17.6°S) presented decrease in the F-layer densities (negative phase), whereas Palmas presented increase in the F-layer densities (positive phase) during the main phase. This was followed by positive phase at both the stations. During the first night of the recovery phase a strong formation and evolution of large-scale ionospheric irregularities (equatorial spread-F (ESF)) was observed, but on the second night of the recovery phase, there was strong and almost simultaneous sporadic E (Es) formation at all three stations. During the presence of Es, spread-F formation is not observed, indicating the suppression of spread-F, possibly by sporadic E.     

Study of correlations between waves and particle fluxes measured on board the DEMETER satellite

The topic of relativistic electron dynamics in the outer radiation belt has received considerable attention for many years. Nevertheless, the problem of understanding the physical phenomenon involved is far from being resolved. In this paper, we use DEMETER observations to examine the variations of the energetic electron fluxes and ELF/VLF wave intensities in the inner magnetosphere during the intense 8 November 2004 magnetic storm. Electron flux spectra and associated wave intensity spectra are analysed throughout the magnetic storm and common characteristics or differences to other storm events are retained. The overall objective of this study is to identify and derive parameters that are relevant for particle flux modelling; the time constant characterizing the persistent decay after particle enhancement was found to be one of these important model parameters.The analysis of the 8 November 2004 event reveals that for L-shell parameter higher than 4, an electron flux dropout is observed during the storm’s main phase for electrons in the energy range 0.1–1 MeV, as has been reported from other measurements. Characteristic wave spectra accompanying this phase are analysed. They show a typical enhancement in the frequency range 0.3–10 kHz at onset for all L-shell values under consideration (2 < L < 5). During the first stage of the recovery phase, the electron fluxes are increased to a level higher than the pre-storm level, whereas the level of wave intensity in the frequency range observed below 300 Hz is at its highest. In the second stage, the particle flux decrease goes hand in hand with a global wave activity decline, the relaxation time of the latter being smaller than the former’s one. In some other cases, long-lasting electron enhancement associated with constant wave activity has been observed during this latter stage. For the above mentioned storm, while at low L values the decay time constants are higher for low energy electrons than for high energy electrons, this order is reversed at high L values. At about L = 3.6 the time constant is independent of electron energy.     

Geomagnetic effects on mid-latitude railways: A statistical study of anomalies in the operation of signaling and train control equipment on the East-Siberian Railway

Intense geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can hamper rail traffic by disturbing signaling and train control systems. GIC threats have been a concern for technological systems at high-latitude locations due to geomagnetic disturbances driven by substorm expansion electrojet or convection electrojet intensifications. However, other geomagnetic storm processes such as storm sudden commencement (SSC) and geomagnetic pulsations can also cause GIC concerns for technological systems. We present in this paper the first evidence based on statistical data for links between geomagnetic disturbances and faulty operations (anomalies) in the functioning of railway automatics and telemetry. We analyze anomalies of automatic signaling and train control equipment which occurred in 2004 on the East-Siberian Railway (corrected geomagnetic latitude _m = 46–51°N and longitude λ_m = 168–187°E). Our results reveal a seasonal effect in the number of anomalies per train similar to the one observed in geomagnetic activity (Kp, Ap, Dst indices). We also found an increase by a factor of 3 in the total duration of daily anomalies during intense geomagnetic storms (local geomagnetic index specific to Siberian Observatory A_max > 30), with a significant correlation between the daily sum of durations of anomalies with geomagnetic activity. Special attention was paid to failures not related to recognized technical malfunctions. We found that the probability of these failures occurring in geomagnetically disturbed periods was 5–7 times higher than the average anomaly occurrence.     

Forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms

Long-term forecast of space weather allows in achieving a longer lead time for taking the necessary precautions against disturbances. Hence, there is a need for long-term forecasting of space weather. We studied the possibility for a long-term forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms recur with an approximate 27-day period during the declining phase of a solar cycle. These disturbances are caused by the passage of corotating interaction regions, which are formed by interactions between the background slow-speed solar wind and high-speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole. In this study, we report on the performance of 27-day-ahead forecasts of the recurrent geomagnetic disturbances using Kp index. The methods of the forecasts are on the basis of persistence, autoregressive model, and categorical forecast using occurrence probability. The forecasts show better performance during the declining phase of a solar cycle than other phases. The categorical forecast shows the probability of detection (POD) more than 0.5 during the declining phase. Transition of the performance occurs sharply among the declining phases and other phases.     

Length scales for September 14, 2005 solar noise storm

Source length scales are estimated for the September 14, 2005 solar noise storm from the spectral and temporal observed characteristics of the background continuum fluctuations and clusters of Type I bursts. The characteristic height of the magnetic structure where the noise storm source is located and the size of the source where Type I bursts clustering takes place were calculated. A lower limit for the height of the magnetic structure supporting the noise storm at 237 MHz was estimated too.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Classification and quantification of solar wind driver gases leading to intense geomagnetic storms

Classification and quantification of the interplanetary structures causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst?≤??100?nT) that occurred during 1997–2016 are studied. The subject of this consists of solar wind parameters of seventy-three intense storms that are associated with the southward interplanetary magnetic field. About 30.14% of the storms were driven by a combination of the sheath and ejecta (S?+?E), magnetic clouds (MC) and sheath field (S) are 26% each, 10.96% by combined sheath and MCs (S?+?C), while 5.48% of the storms were driven by ejecta (E) alone. Therefore, we want to aver that for storms driven by: (1) S?+?E. The Bz is high (≥10?nT), high density (ρ) (>10?N/cm³), high plasma beta (β) (>0.8), and unspecified (i.e. high or low) structure of the plasma temperature (T) and the flow speed (V); (2) MC. The Bz is ≥10?nT, low temperature (T?≤?400,000?K), low ρ (≤10?N/cm³), high V (≥450?km), and low β (≤0.8); (3) The structures of S?+?C are similar to that of MC except that the V is low (V?≤?450?km); (4) S. The Bz is high, low T, high ρ, unspecified V, and low β; and (5) E. Is when the structures are directly opposite of the one driven by MCs except for high V. Although, westward ring current indicates intense storms, but the large intensity of geomagnetic storms is determined by the intense nature of the electric field strength and the Bz. Therefore, great storms (i.e. Dst?≤??200?nT) are manifestation of high electric field strength (≥13?mV/m).     

Behavior of foF2 prior to geomagnetic storms according to Slough and Juliusruh data

The foF2 deviations from quiet conditions during three days preceding a magnetic storm are considered. The data of the Juliusruh station for the period of 1976–2010 are analyzed, and the results are compared to the similar analysis of the Slough data published earlier. A seasonal dependence of the deviations (events) is found: the probability of the events occurrence is higher in winter than in summer. This probability also depends on solar activity (it decreases with an increase in the F10.7 index) and the magnetic storm intensity (it decreases with an increase in the magnitude of the negative Dst index). The dependence of the events number on the local time of the storm onset (SO) and the time of the event prior to the SO moment is also analyzed. The results for both stations are in a good agreement and confirm the initial concept that the aforementioned events could be considered as precursors of the coming magnetic storm.     

Atmosphere-ionosphere coupling from convectively generated gravity waves

Ionospheric variability impacts operational performances of a variety of technological systems, such as HF communication, Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation, and radar surveillance. The ionosphere is not only perturbed by geomagnetic inputs but is also influenced by atmospheric tides and other wave disturbances propagating from the troposphere to high altitudes. Atmospheric Gravity Waves (AGWs) excited by meteorological sources are one of the largest sources of mesoscale variability in the ionosphere. In this paper, Total Electron Content (TEC) data from networks of GPS receivers in the United States are analyzed to investigate AGWs in the ionosphere generated by convective thunderstorms. Two case studies of convectively generated gravity waves are presented. On April 4, 2014 two distinct large convective systems in Texas and Arkansas generated two sets of concentric AGWs that were observed in the ionosphere as Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). The period of the observed TIDs was 20.8 min, the horizontal wavelength was 182.4 km, and the horizontal phase speed was 146.4 m/s. The second case study shows TIDs generated from an extended squall line on December 23, 2015 stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes in North America. Unlike the concentric wave features seen in the first case study, the extended squall line generated TIDs, which exhibited almost plane-parallel phase fronts. The TID period was 20.1 min, its horizontal wavelength was 209.6 km, and the horizontal phase speed was 180.1 m/s. The AGWs generated by both of these meteorological events have large vertical wavelength (>100 km), which are larger than the F2 layer thickness, thus allowing them to be discernible in the TEC dataset.