On the performance of IRI-2016 to predict the North-South asymmetry of the equatorial ionization anomaly around 73°E longitude

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in both northern and southern Equatorial anomaly regions are examined by using the Global Positioning System (GPS) based TEC measurements around 73°E Longitude in the Asian sector. The TEC contour charts obtained at SURAT (21.16°N; 72.78°E; 12.9°N Geomagnetic Lat.) and DGAR (7.27°S; 72.37°E; 15.3°S Geomagnetic Lat.) over 73°E longitude during a very low solar activity phase (2009) and a moderate solar activity (2012) phase are used in this study. The results show the existence of hemispheric asymmetry and the effects of solar activity on the EIA crest in occurrence time, location and strength. The results are also compared with the TEC derived by IRI-2016 Model and it is found that the North-South asymmetry at the EIA region is clearly depicted by IRI-2016 with some discrepancies (up to 20% in the northern hemisphere at SURAT and up to 40% in the southern hemisphere at DGAR station for June Solstice and up to 10% both for SURAT and DGAR for December Solstice). This discrepancy in the IRI-2016 model is found larger during the year 2012 than that during the solar minimum year 2009 at both the hemispheres. Further, an asymmetry index, (A_i) is determined to illustrate the North-South asymmetry observed in TEC at EIA crest. The seasonal, annual and solar flux dependence of this index are investigated during both solstices and compared with the TEC derived by IRI.     

The longitudinal and hemispherical variation of the IRI’s foF2 estimates at ±40° dip angle around 95°E and 130°E sector under fluctuating solar flux conditions

The deviation of the IRI estimates of the monthly mean foF2 in the low mid latitude of 95°E–130°E longitude sector is investigated using simultaneous ground measurements at four stations during 2010–2014. The stations form two conjugate pairs of the same geo-magnetic latitude at two fixed longitudes enabling direct longitudinal and hemispheric comparison. The temporal, spatial, seasonal and solar activity variations of the deviations are discussed with reference to the longitudinal density variation in the transition region between low and midlatitudes. Cases of underestimation/overestimation as well as good estimate are noted. Underestimation (overestimation) in the daytime and overestimation (underestimation) in the nighttime of 95°E (130°E) are common. The longitudinal difference in the measurements suggests negative (positive) foF2 gradient from west to east in daytime (nighttime). In contrast, the IRI predicts flatter or increasing longitudinal profiles from 95°E to 130°E. The local time and longitudinal variation of the IRI deviations can be attributed to the combined role of the longitudinal EIA structure as well as midlatitude zonal wind-magnetic declination effect. The station/season independent deviations relate the role of solar activity representation in the IRI. These deviations may be attributed to the weak IRI response to rapid solar flux fluctuations.     

Proposal of new models of the bottom-side B0 and B1 parameters for IRI

The time series of hourly electron density profiles N(h) obtained from 27 ionosonde stations distributed world-wide have been used to obtain N(h) average profiles on a monthly basis and to extract the expected bottom-side parameters that define the IRI profile under quiet conditions. The time series embrace the time interval from 1998 to 2006, which practically contains the entire solar cycle 23. The Spherical Harmonic Analysis (SHA) has been used as an analytical technique for modeling globally the B0 and B1 parameters as general functions on a spherical surface. Due to the irregular longitudinal distribution of the stations over the globe, it has been assumed that the ionosphere remains approximately constant in form for a given day under quiet conditions for a particular coordinate system. Since the Earth rotates under a Sun-fixed system, the time differences have been considered to be equivalent to longitude differences. The time dependence has been represented by a two-degree Fourier expansion to model the annual and semiannual variations and the year-by-year analyses of the B0 and B1 have furnished nine sets of spherical harmonic coefficients for each parameter. The spatial–temporal yearly coefficients have been further expressed as linear functions of Rz12 to model the solar cycle dependence. The resultant analytical model provides a tool to predict B0 and B1 at any location distributed among the used range of latitudes (70°N–50°S) and at any time that improves the fit to the observed data with respect to IRI prediction.     

Accuracy of IRI profiles of ionospheric density and temperatures derived from comparisons to Kharkov incoherent scatter radar measurements

The incoherent scatter radar (ISR) facility in Kharkov, Ukraine (49.6°N, 36.3°E) measures vertical profiles of electron density, electron and ion temperature, and ion composition of the ionospheric plasma up to 1100 km altitude. Acquired measurements constitute an accurate ionospheric reference dataset for validation of the variety of models and alternative measurement techniques. We describe preliminary results of comparing the Kharkov ISR profiles to the international reference ionosphere (IRI), an empirical model recognized for its reliable representation of the monthly-median climatology of the density and temperature profiles during quiet-time conditions, with certain extensions to the storm times. We limited our comparison to only quiet geomagnetic conditions during the autumnal equinoxes of 2007 and 2008. Overall, we observe good qualitative agreement between model and data both in time and with altitude. Magnitude-wise, the measured and modeled electron density and plasma temperatures profiles appear different. We discovered that representation accuracy improves significantly when IRI is driven by observed-averaged values of the solar activity index rather than their predictions. This result motivated us to study IRI performance throughout protracted solar minimum of the 24th cycle. The paper summarizes our observations and recommendations for optimal use of the IRI.     

The variability and IRI2007-predictability of hmF2 over South Africa

This paper presents an investigation into the variability and predictability of the maximum height of the ionospheric F2 layer, hmF2 over the South African region. Data from three South African stations, namely Madimbo (22.4°S, 26.5°E, dip angle: −61.47°), Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E, dip angle: −64.08°) and Louisvale (28.5°S, 21.2°E, dip angle: −65.44°) were used in this study. The results indicate that hmF2 shows a larger variability around midnight than during the daytime for all seasons. Monthly median hmF2 values were used in all cases and were compared with predictions from the IRI-2007 model, using the URSI (Union Radio-Scientifique Internationale) coefficient option. The analysis covers the diurnal and seasonal hourly hmF2 values for the selected months and time sectors e.g. January, July, April and October for 2003 and 2005. The time ranges between (03h00–23h00 UT; LT = UT + 2h) representing the local sunrise, midday, sunset and midnight hours. The time covers sunrise, midday, sunrise, and midnight hours (03–06h00 UT, 07–11h00 UT, sunrise 16–18h00 UT and 22–23h00 UT; LT = UT + 2h). The dependence of the results on solar activity levels was also investigated. The IRI-2007 predictions follow fairly well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the observed hmF2 values at all the stations. However, the IRI-2007 model overestimates and underestimates the hmF2 value during different months for all the solar activity periods.     

TEC derived from some GPS stations in Nigeria and comparison with the IRI and NeQuick models

Total electron content (TEC) measured simultaneously using Global Positioning System (GPS) ionospheric monitors installed at some locations in Nigeria during the year 2011 (Rz = 55.7) was used to study the diurnal, seasonal, and annual TEC variations. The TEC exhibits daytime maximum, seasonal variation and semiannual variations. Measured TEC were compared with those predicted by the improved versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) and NeQuick models. The models followed the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the observed values of TEC. However, IRI model produced better estimates of TEC than NeQuick at all locations.     

Equatorial predictions from a new neural network based global foF2 model

A new neural network (NN) based global empirical model for the foF2 parameter, which represents the peak ionospheric electron density, has been developed using extended temporal and spatial geophysical relevant inputs. It has been proposed that this new model be considered as a suitable replacement for the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) model options currently used within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model for the purpose of F2 peak electron density predictions. The most recent version of the model has incorporated data from 135 global ionospheric stations including a number of equatorial stations.     

Bottom side profiles for two close stations at the southern crest of the EIA: Differences and comparison with IRI-2012 and NeQuick2 for low and high solar activity

Bottom side electron density profiles for two stations at the southern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA), São José dos Campos (23.1°S, 314.5°E, dip latitude 19.8°S; Brazil) and Tucumán (26.9°S, 294.6°E, dip latitude 14.0°S; Argentina), located at similar latitude and separated by only 20° in longitude, have been compared during equinoctial, winter and summer months under low (year 2008, minimum of the solar cycle 23/24) and high solar activity (years 2013–2014, maximum of the solar cycle 24) conditions. An analysis of parameters describing the bottom side part of the electron density profile, namely the peak electron density NmF2, the height hmF2 at which it is reached, the thickness parameter B₀ and the shape parameter B₁, is carried out. Further, a comparison of bottom side profiles and F-layer parameters with the corresponding outputs of IRI-2012 and NeQuick2 models is also reported. The variations of NmF2 at both stations reveal the absence of semi-annual anomaly for low solar activity (LSA), evidencing the anomalous activity of the last solar minimum, while those related to hmF2 show an uplift of the ionosphere for high solar activity (HSA). As expected, the EIA is particularly visible at both stations during equinox for HSA, when its strength is at maximum in the South American sector. Despite the similar latitude of the two stations upon the southern crest of the EIA, the anomaly effect is more pronounced at Tucumán than at São José dos Campos. The differences encountered between these very close stations suggest that in this sector relevant longitudinal-dependent variations could occur, with the longitudinal gradient of the Equatorial Electrojet that plays a key role to explain such differences together with the 5.8° separation in dip latitude between the two ionosondes. Furthermore at Tucumán, the daily peak value of NmF2 around 21:00 LT during equinox for HSA is in temporal coincidence with an impulsive enhancement of hmF2, showing a kind of “elastic rebound” under the action of the EIA. IRI-2012 and NeQuick2 bottom side profiles show significant deviations from ionosonde observations. In particular, both models provide a clear underestimation of the EIA strength at both stations, with more pronounced differences for Tucumán. Large discrepancies are obtained for the parameter hmF2 for HSA during daytime at São José dos Campos, where clear underestimations made by both models are observed. The shape parameter B₀ is quite well described by the IRI-2012 model, with very good agreement in particular during equinox for both stations for both LSA and HSA. On the contrary, the two models show poor agreements with ionosonde data concerning the shape parameter B₁.     

Prediction of Group Delay Distribution Around Receiving Point Using Modified IRI Model and IGRF Model

The international reference ionosphere (IRI) model is generally accepted standard ionosphere model. It describes the ionosphere environment in quiet state and predicts the ionosphere parameters within a certain precision. In this paper, we have made a breakthrough in the application of the IRI model by modifying the model for regions of China. The main objectives of this modification are to construct the ionosphere parameters foF2 and M (3000) F2 by using the Chinese reference ionosphere (CRI) coefficients, appropriately increase hmE and hmF2 height, reduce the thickness of F layer, validate the parameter by the measured values, and solve the electron concentration distribution with quasi-parabolic segment (QPS). In this paper, 3D ray tracing algorithm is constructed based on the modified IRI model and international geomagnetic reference field (IGRF) model. In short-wave propagation, it can be used to predict the electromagnetic parameters of the receiving point, such as the receiving area, maximum useable frequency (MUF) and the distribution of the group delay etc., which can help to determine the suitability of the communication. As an example, we estimate the group delay distributions around Changchun in the detection from Qingdao to Changchun using the modified IRI model and IGRF model, and provide technical support for the short-wave communication between the two cities.