A Delphi-Based Framework for systems architecting of in-orbit exploration infrastructure for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit

The current debate in the U.S. Human Spaceflight Program focuses on the development of the next generation of man-rated heavy lift launch vehicles. While launch vehicle systems are of critical importance for future exploration, a comprehensive analysis of the entire exploration infrastructure is required to avoid costly pitfalls at early stages of the design process. This paper addresses this need by presenting a Delphi-Based Systems Architecting Framework for integrated architectural analysis of future in-orbit infrastructure for human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit. The paper is structured in two parts.     

Evolution and History in a new “Mathematical SETI” model

In a recent paper (Maccone, 2011 [15]) and in a recent book (Maccone, 2012 [17]), this author proposed a new mathematical model capable of merging SETI and Darwinian Evolution into a single mathematical scheme. This model is based on exponentials and lognormal probability distributions, called “b-lognormals” if they start at any positive time b (“birth”) larger than zero. Indeed:

• 1.Darwinian evolution theory may be regarded as a part of SETI theory in that the factor f_l in the Drake equation represents the fraction of planets suitable for life on which life actually arose, as it happened on Earth.
• 2.In 2008 (Maccone, 2008 [9]) this author firstly provided a statistical generalization of the Drake equation where the number N of communicating ET civilizations in the Galaxy was shown to follow the lognormal probability distribution. This fact is a consequence of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics, stating that the product of a number of independent random variables whose probability densities are unknown and independent of each other approached the lognormal distribution if the number of factors is increased at will, i.e. it approaches infinity.
• 3.Also, in Maccone (2011 [15]), it was shown that the exponential growth of the number of species typical of Darwinian Evolution may be regarded as the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of b-lognormal distributions constrained between the time axis and the exponential growth curve. This was a brand-new result. And one more new and far-reaching idea was to define Darwinian Evolution as a particular realization of a stochastic process called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) having the above exponential as its own mean value curve.
• 4.The b-lognormals may be also be interpreted as the lifespan of any living being, let it be a cell, or an animal, a plant, a human, or even the historic lifetime of any civilization. In Maccone, (2012 [17, Chapters 6, 7, 8 and 11]), as well as in the present paper, we give important exact equations yielding the b-lognormal when its birth time, senility-time (descending inflexion point) and death time (where the tangent at senility intercepts the time axis) are known. These also are brand-new results. In particular, the σ=1 b-lognormals are shown to be related to the golden ratio, so famous in the arts and in architecture, and these special b-lognormals we call “golden b-lognormals”.
• 5.Applying this new mathematical apparatus to Human History leads to the discovery of the exponential trend of progress between Ancient Greece and the current USA Empire as the envelope of the b-lognormals of all Western Civilizations over a period of 2500 years.
• 6.We then invoke Shannon's Information Theory. The entropy of the obtained b-lognormals turns out to be the index of “development level” reached by each historic civilization. As a consequence, we get a numerical estimate of the entropy difference (i.e. the difference in the evolution levels) between any two civilizations. In particular, this was the case when Spaniards first met with Aztecs in 1519, and we find the relevant entropy difference between Spaniards an Aztecs to be 3.84 bits/individual over a period of about 50 centuries of technological difference. In a similar calculation, the entropy difference between the first living organism on Earth (RNA?) and Humans turns out to equal 25.57 bits/individual over a period of 3.5 billion years of Darwinian Evolution.
• 7.Finally, we extrapolate our exponentials into the future, which is of course arbitrary, but is the best Humans can do before they get in touch with any alien civilization. The results are appalling: the entropy difference between aliens 1 million years more advanced than Humans is of the order of 1000 bits/individual, while 10,000 bits/individual would be requested to any Civilization wishing to colonize the whole Galaxy (Fermi Paradox).
• 8.In conclusion, we have derived a mathematical model capable of estimating how much more advanced than humans an alien civilization will be when SETI succeeds.

     

Possible influence of solar extreme events and related geomagnetic disturbances on human cardio-vascular state: Results of collaborative Bulgarian–Azerbaijani studies

This collaborative study is based on the analysis and comparison of results of coordinated experimental investigations conducted in Bulgaria and Azerbaijan for revealing a possible influence of solar activity changes and related geomagnetic activity variations on the human cardio-vascular state. Arterial blood pressure and heart rate of 86 healthy volunteers were measured on working days during a period of comparatively high solar and geomagnetic activity (2799 measurements in autumn 2001 and spring 2002) in Sofia. Daily experimental investigations of parameters of cardio-vascular health state were performed in Azerbaijan with a permanent group of examined persons. Heart rate and electrocardiograms were digitally registered (in total 1532 records) for seven functionally healthy persons on working days and Saturdays, in the Laboratory of Heliobiology at the Medical Center INAM in Baku, from 15.07.2006 to 13.11.2007. Obtained digital recordings were subjected to medical, statistical and spectral analyses. Special attention was paid to effects of solar extreme events, particularly those of November 2001 and December 2006. The statistical method of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc analysis were applied to check the significance of the influence of geomagnetic activity on the cardio-vascular parameters under consideration. Results revealed statistically significant increments for the mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure values of the group with geomagnetic activity increase. Arterial blood pressure values started increasing two days prior to geomagnetic storms and kept their high values up to two days after the storms. Heart rate reaction was ambiguous and not significant for healthy persons examined (for both groups) under conditions with geomagnetic activity changes. It is concluded that heart rate for healthy persons at middle latitudes can be considered as a more stable physiological parameter which is not so sensitive to environmental changes while the dynamics of arterial blood pressure reveals a compensatory reaction of the human organism for adaptation.     

A lunar L2-Farside exploration and science mission concept with the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and a teleoperated lander/rover

A novel concept is presented in this paper for a human mission to the lunar L2 (Lagrange) point that would be a proving ground for future exploration missions to deep space while also overseeing scientifically important investigations. In an L2 halo orbit above the lunar farside, the astronauts aboard the Orion Crew Vehicle would travel 15% farther from Earth than did the Apollo astronauts and spend almost three times longer in deep space. Such a mission would serve as a first step beyond low Earth orbit and prove out operational spaceflight capabilities such as life support, communication, high speed re-entry, and radiation protection prior to more difficult human exploration missions. On this proposed mission, the crew would teleoperate landers/rovers on the unexplored lunar farside, which would obtain samples from the geologically interesting farside and deploy a low radio frequency telescope. Sampling the South Pole-Aitken basin, one of the oldest impact basins in the solar system, is a key science objective of the 2011 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. Observations at low radio frequencies to track the effects of the Universe’s first stars/galaxies on the intergalactic medium are a priority of the 2010 Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey. Such telerobotic oversight would also demonstrate capability for human and robotic cooperation on future, more complex deep space missions such as exploring Mars.     

基于VC++/GL Studio的通用飞行组合虚拟仪表设计及实现

为了满足某无人机半实物仿真系统视景显示需要,针对视景界面复杂、显示数据种类多、实时性和流畅性要求高的特点,设计了基于GL Studio的组合虚拟仪表界面。详细介绍了组合虚拟仪表设计和实现过程,并通过VC++平台实现了网络通信和数据驱动仪表显示功能。仿真系统实际应用表明:该飞行组合仪表工作性能可靠,人机界面友好,具有良好的可重构性,满足不同无人机飞行仿真系统和飞行训练系统使用需求。     

柔索牵引式力觉交互机器人工作空间分析

为了在地面上实现航天员的虚拟作业训练,基于柔索牵引式并联机器人,研究了与VR技术结合的柔索牵引式力觉交互机器人的力螺旋可行工作空间。建立平面柔索的静力学模型,分析竖直平面内4柔索3自由度末端执行器不同位姿及人机交互力下的力螺旋可行工作空间,对比分析了柔索牵引式力觉交互机器人在实际应用中交叉柔索不同布局方式、外力旋量和末端执行器不同结构参数对力螺旋可行工作空间的影响。确定了合理的柔索牵引式力觉交互机器人的力螺旋可行工作空间、合理的柔索布局、末端执行器的结构参数。因为柔索牵引式力觉交互机器人具有工作空间大、可以提供较大的力及力矩、刚度可变、安全性高、人机交互性强等优点,因此可以满足航天员虚拟作业训练的需求。     

Effect of salt stress on growth and physiology in amaranth and lettuce: Implications for bioregenerative life support system

Growing plants can be used to clean waste water in bioregenerative life support system (BLSS). However, NaCl contained in the human urine always restricts plant growth and further reduces the degree of mass cycle closure of the system (i.e. salt stress). This work determined the effect of NaCl stress on physiological characteristics of plants for the life support system. Amaranth (Amaranthus tricolor L. var. Huahong) and leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. var. Luoma) were cultivated at nutrient solutions with different NaCl contents (0, 1000, 5000 and 10,000 ppm, respectively) for 10 to 18 days after planted in the Controlled Ecological Life Support System Experimental Facility in China. Results showed that the two plants have different responses to the salt stress. The amaranth showed higher salt-tolerance with NaCl stress. If NaCl content in the solution is below 5000 ppm, the salt stress effect is insignificant on above-ground biomass output, leaf photosynthesis rate, Fv/Fm, photosynthesis pigment contents, activities of antioxidant enzymes, and inducing lipid peroxidation. On the other hand, the lettuce is sensitive to NaCl which significantly decreases those indices of growth and physiology. Notably, the lettuce remains high productivity of edible biomass in low NaCl stress, although its salt-tolerant limitation is lower than amaranth. Therefore, we recommended that amaranth could be cultivated under a higher NaCl stress condition (<5000 ppm) for NaCl recycle while lettuce should be under a lower NaCl stress (<1000 ppm) for water cleaning in future BLSS.     

SpaceMocap：在轨人体运动捕捉系统

SpaceMocap是一套基于多RGB-D相机的计算机视觉航天员运动捕捉系统。地面准备阶段，扫描航天员模型，并分别标定彩色相机的内参数。在轨采集阶段，3~4台相机布置在舱内角落，同步采集航天员任务视频。地面处理阶段，通过相机外参数标定和ICP方法实现点云融合，采用深度神经网络对人体关节点位置进行检测并初始化位姿参数，再用改进的ICP方法进行位姿求精，实现序列图像中关节角度跟踪。本系统搭载TG-2升空，对SZ-11航天员的任务视频进行了采集和处理，首次获取了在轨航天员的姿态(包括中性体位)、占位空间、运动参数等重要数据。结果表明，运动捕捉的模型与点云具有良好的重合度，关节点位置与关节角度具有较高的跟踪精度。SpaceMocap是我国首个在轨运动捕捉系统，它小型、轻质，具有计算机视觉特有的非接触测量、直观、高精度优势，无需在人体上粘贴任何标志，具有良好的抗遮挡能力，完全适用于微重力、狭小空间环境下的在轨应用 。     

Software defect prevention based on human error theories

Software defect prevention is an important way to reduce the defect introduction rate.As the primary cause of software defects,human error can be the key to understanding and preventing software defects.This paper proposes a defect prevention approach based on human error mechanisms:DPeHE.The approach includes both knowledge and regulation training in human error prevention.Knowledge training provides programmers with explicit knowledge on why programmers commit errors,what kinds of errors tend to be committed under different circumstances,and how these errors can be prevented.Regulation training further helps programmers to promote the awareness and ability to prevent human errors through practice.The practice is facilitated by a problem solving checklist and a root cause identification checklist.This paper provides a systematic framework that integrates knowledge across disciplines,e.g.,cognitive science,software psychology and software engineering to defend against human errors in software development.Furthermore,we applied this approach in an international company at CMM Level 5 and a software development institution at CMM Level 1 in the Chinese Aviation Industry.The application cases show that the approach is feasible and effective in promoting developers' ability to prevent software defects,inde pendent of process maturity levels.     

浅谈中小企业如何引进和留住人才

作为资本有限的中小企业,不可能拿出大笔资金用于培训和招揽人才,但作为中小企业的经营者,在头脑中必须要有人才第一的观念,想尽一切办法去引进人才,留住人才,只有这样才能更好地适应新环境,促进新发展.