A three-dimensional modelling study of the processes leading to mid latitude nitric oxide increases in the lower thermosphere following periods of high geomagnetic activity

The processes leading to enhancements in mid latitude nitric oxide (NO) densities following geomagnetic storms have been investigated using the University College London (UCL) Coupled Middle Atmosphere and Thermosphere (CMAT) general circulation model. A comparison of calculated storm time and quiet time NO densities at 110 km altitude reveals the presence of aurorally produced NO at both high and mid latitudes for several days after subsidence of activity. At 150 km, the NO enhancements are shorter lived and remain for up to approximately 2 days after the storm. By separating the contribution of chemical production and loss, horizontal and vertical advection, and molecular and eddy diffusion in the calculation of NO densities, we show that at 150 km altitude, horizontal transport must be taken into consideration if post-storm mid latitude enhancements are to be reproduced. Chemical production of NO at high latitudes continues for up to 2 days after subsidence of a storm at altitudes of around 150 km. We show that equatorward winds at this altitude are sufficiently strong to transport the aurorally produced NO to mid latitudes. Vertical diffusion transports NO from altitudes of 150 km and above, to lower altitudes where it is longer lived. At 110 km altitude, chemical, diffusive and advective terms must all be included in the calculation of NO density in order to simulate realistic mid latitude enhancements. We propose that it is the combined effects of increased chemical production, downward diffusion from altitudes of 150 km and above, and transport by winds that lead to increases in mid latitude NO density at altitudes of around 110 km. This is the first detailed study of the causes of post-storm mid latitude NO enhancements to use a three-dimensional general circulation model.     

地磁场与电离层异常现象及其与地震的关系

利用中国地磁台网与电离层台站资料,总结了大地震前出现的地磁低点位移、地磁日变异常及电离层f0F2(F2层临界频率)异常现象.对比研究了1997年11月8日玛尼7.5级与2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震前磁场与电离层异常分布及特征.结果显示,两次巨大地震前磁场与电离层短临异常时空分布特征有较好的一致性,震中周围出现日变异常、拉萨台出现电离层f0F2明显异常;震前约1个月出现地磁低点位移,其突变分界线通过震中地区.      

利用地面宇宙线强度变化预报地磁暴方法初步研究

分析了Nagoya宇宙线闪烁体望远镜探测数据的变化特点,定性地探讨了CME可能引起的地面宇宙线的变化特征,通过实例证实了地面宇宙线通量的异常波动是地磁暴发生的重要先兆特征,并且将8 h内宇宙线通量与该时间段内平均通量的偏差D8(t)参数应用到宇宙线数据分析中.通过数据分析与讨论,认为D8(t)参数达到一定阈值是地磁暴的重要先兆特征,但不是充分条件,虚假信号仍占多数;D8(t)参数与太阳质子事件探测结果相结合,对于大地磁暴的预报有较好的效果.      

550～600 km高度上热层大气密度的中长期变化

选用了2005年8月20日至2006年7月28日高度550～600 km附近的热层大气密度探测数据,对表征太阳活动的F10.7值和表征地磁活动强度的Ap指数进行了相关特性的统计.分析结果表明,在无明显地磁扰动时热层大气密度日平均值的涨落呈现27日和准半年的周期性变化,但在地磁扰动期间这种变化的周期性会被削弱,且大气密度的周日变化幅度与F10.7值呈正相关关系.      

由太阳爆发事件特征预报地磁暴方法研究

CME是非重现性地磁暴的诱因,通过对太阳耀斑爆发活动的特征与可能引起地磁活动的CME进行统计分析,发现太阳耀斑的强度、位置、持续时间以及耀斑所伴随的太阳质子事件和行星际高能质子通量的增长与CME的特征及可能产生的地磁扰动有着密切的关系.在对数据分析的基础上,建立了基于人工神经网络的预报模式,对太阳耀斑爆发活动所引起的地磁扰动的发生及Ap指数进行了预报,取得了较好的结果.      

CME地磁扰动事件的模糊预报方法

以1997-2003年期间的73个日冕物质抛射(CME)激波扰动事件和模糊数学为基础,提出了一种预报地磁扰动的方法.该方法以CME事件爆发的日面经纬度、相关地磁扰动事件的渡越时间、地磁扰动指数、IPS观测的太阳风速度跃变量为基础,建立了预报CME地磁扰动事件的μθ,μφ,μT,μM,μ△v从属函数,考虑了CME初始速度对激波到达时间的影响.以这5个从属函数为基础并利用模糊数学对1996-2004年期间73个经行星际闪烁(IPS)观测认证的CME激波引起的地磁扰动事件进行了预报实验.实验结果表明,磁扰开始时间预报的相对误差,△Tpre/Tobs≤30%的事件占总事件数的91.78%,而△Tpre/Tobs＞30%的事件占总事件数的12.33%;磁扰幅度(∑Kp)大小的预报,其相对误差△∑Kp/∑Kpobs≤30%的事件占总事件数的60.27%,相对误差≥50%的事件占总事件数的12.33%.这表明该预报方法对空间灾害性事件地磁扰动的定量预报具有很大应用潜力.      

"神舟3号"运行高度上大气密度的变化

"神舟3号"(SZ-3)大气密度探测器搭载在SZ-3留轨舱上于2002年3月发射入轨,在轨运行期间获得了轨道舱运行高度范围(330-410km)内的大气密度数据.数据分析表明,无明显太阳和地磁扰动时,热层大气密度的主要变化之一是日照和阴影区域之间的涨落变化,最大涨落变化比约为3.0,变化比与太阳和地磁活动程度有关.在2002-04-17和2002-04-19的强地磁扰动时,全球热层大气密度上涨,同时在磁扰峰期探测获得30°N-40°N区域出现密度扰动异常现象.对强地磁扰动在运行轨道高度上大气密度最大涨幅约为60%左右,响应过程在时间上要比地磁扰动过程滞后6-7h,日照和阴影区域中大气密度的响应变化程度明显不同.在太阳活动程度发生变化时,热层大气密度会呈现出明显的正相关变化关系.     

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

基于电离层暴时f_0F_2经验模型Kalman滤波短期预报

利用时间累积地磁指数印ap(T),建立了强地磁扰动条件下电离层f0F2与月中值相对偏差经验模型.该经验模型只在春秋季节和夏季特强地磁扰动条件ap(T)>100,即时间累积地磁指数大于100时达到理想精度.尝试利用气象预报中常用的Kalman滤波方法对模型的系数进行实时修正,以提高预报精度,并对长春站1986-1995年近一个太阳周f0F2数据进行提前一小时预报试验.冬季预报均方根误差为0.76MHz,春秋季节为0.68MHz,夏季为0.61MHz.在特强地磁扰动条件下,预测误差在0.87～1.43MHz之间.该预报方法同时与包含暴时修正模型STORM的国际参考电离层IRI2001进行了比较,展示了Kalman滤波方法实时修正模型系数的能力和良好的应用前景.     

Eccentric dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field: Application to cosmic ray computations

A comparison of the full IGRF model of the geomagnetic field with two simplified models, the truncated IGRF and the eccentric dipole model, is performed. The simplified models were found to provide a reasonable approximation for the large scale geomagnetic field distribution. In the application of the simplified geomagnetic models to the shielding of cosmic rays in the magnetosphere as quantified via the geomagnetic cut-off rigidity, the eccentric dipole and the truncated IGRF provide a good large scale view. The use of the simplified model does not introduce any additional systematic errors at the global scale but may be a source of moderate uncertainty at the regional scale in the tropical Atlantic region. This study quantitatively validates the use of such simplified geomagnetic models when describing the shielding of cosmic rays in the magnetosphere.