Traveling ionospheric disturbances observed at South African midlatitudes during the 29–31 October 2003 geomagnetically disturbed period

This paper presents traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) observations from GPS measurements over the South African region during the geomagnetically disturbed period of 29–31 October 2003. Two receiver arrays, which were along two distinct longitudinal sectors of about 18°-20° and 27°-28° were used in order to investigate the amplitude, periods and virtual propagation characteristics of the storm induced ionospheric disturbances. The study revealed a large sudden TEC increase on 28 October 2003, the day before the first of the two major storms studied here, that was recorded simultaneously by all the receivers used. This pre-storm enhancement was linked to an X-class solar flare, auroral/magnetospheric activities and vertical plasma drift, based on the behaviour of the geomagnetic storm and auroral indices as well as strong equatorial electrojet. Diurnal trends of the TEC and foF2 measurements revealed that the geomagnetic storm caused a negative ionospheric storm; these parameters were depleted between 29 and 31 October 2003. Large scale traveling ionospheric disturbances were observed on the days of the geomagnetic storms (29 and 31 October 2003), using line-of-sight vertical TEC (vTEC) measurements from individual satellites. Amplitude and dominant periods of these structures varied between 0.08–2.16 TECU, and 1.07–2.13 h respectively. The wave structures were observed to propagate towards the equator with velocities between 587.04 and 1635.09 m/s.     

Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component _Bz$B_z$ of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of _Bz$B_z$ with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of _Bz$B_z$ in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%.     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

A Prediction Method for△f0F2min of a Single Station From Interplanetary Parameters Based on Statistical Study

Using 86 CME-interplanetary shock events,the correlation between the peak values of （a） the solar wind parameters(B_z,E_y,P_dyn) and the geomagnetic indices（SYM-H,ASY-H,Kp）, （b） the coupling functions（Borovsky,Akasofu,Newell） and the geomagnetic indices,（c） the solar wind parameters/coupling functions/geomagnetic indices and the ionospheric parameter(Δf₀F_2min), are investigated.The statistical results show that in group（a）,B_{z min} and SYM-H_min have the best correlation,that in group（b）,the best correlation is between the peak values of Akasofu function (A_min) and SYM-H_min,and that in group（c）,the best correlation is between K_pmax andΔf₀F_2min. Based on the statistical results,a method for predicting f₀F₂ of a single station is attempted to be set up.The input is modified B_{z min} and the outputs are SYM-H_min andΔf₀F_2min.Then 25 CME-IPS events that caused geomagnetic storms in 1998 and 2009 are used to check the prediction method. The results show that our method can be used to predict SYM-H_min andΔf₀F_2min.     

Solar rhythms in the characteristics of the Arctic frontal zone in the North Atlantic

Long-term changes of the Arctic frontal zone characteristics near the south-eastern coasts of Greenland were considered, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data being used. It was found that in the cold half of the year the temperature gradients in the layer 1000–500 hPa in the region under study reveal strong ∼10-yr and ∼22-yr periodicities that seem to be related to solar activity cycles. The results obtained suggest the influence of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the structure of the temperature field of the troposphere resulting in the changes of the temperature contrasts in the Arctic frontal zone that, in turn, may affect the intensity of cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. The detected effects seem to indicate an important part of frontal zones in the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray variation influence on the development of extratropical baric systems. It is suggested that the variations of the temperature gradients revealed in the Arctic frontal zone are due to the radiative forcing of cloudiness changes which may be associated with geomagnetic activity and cosmic ray variations.     

地磁暴期间中国中低纬电离层的CIT研究

利用电离层层析成像技术(Computerized Ionospheric Tomography, CIT)处理115°E子午圈附近6个台站的GPS观测数据, 分析了2004年11月地磁暴期间中国中低纬电离层的响应情况. 结果表明, 电离层呈正相扰动, 且不同高度上的响应不同, 800 km以下电子密度有不同程度的增加, 且在峰值高度附近增幅最大, 800 km以上地磁暴的影响并不显著; 伴随地磁能量的注入, 赤道异常峰极向扩展; 随磁扰强度的降低, 电子密度也逐渐恢复至平静水平. 这些结果与以往的理论和观测结果一致, 初步估计扰动是由热层暴环流引起的, 并受到赤道异常峰移动的影响.      

Auroral Electrojet Event Associated With Magnetospheric Substorms

The auroral electrojet index is an important index in monitoring and predicting substorms. A substorms usually includes auroral breakup, auroral electrojet event marked by AE increase, energetic particle injection at geosynchronous orbit, mid-low latitude Pi2, etc. However the question whether an auroral electrojet event corresponds to a substorm remains unanswered. Using the auroral electrojet index in 2004, we analyzed five auroral electrojet events and studied their relation with substorms. The results show that there are three kinds of auroral electrojet events: (1) simultaneous rapid increase of westward auroral electrojet and eastward auroral electrojet; (2) rapid increase of westward auroral electrojet and almost unchangeable eastward auroral electrojet; (3) rapid increase of eastward auroral electrojet and almost unchangeable westward auroral electrojet. Most of auroral electrojet events correspond to substorms. However a few auroral electrojet events are not accompanied by substorms. This situation most often occurs for the auroral electrojet event in which eastward auroral electrojet dominates.      

遥测伪周期时间序列子序列异常检测算法

针对现有异常检测算法用于伪周期时间序列异常序列检测时易造成误差累积,导致序列周期与特征值上显著差异的不足,文章以卫星遥测伪周期时序数据为对象,综合两种常规分段方法的优势,提出了最大周期窗宽内基于极值的模式子序列分段算法。在此基础上,给出了一种基于均序列动态生成模型的子序列异常检测方法（AnomalySubsequenceDetectionmethodbasedonOptimizedSequenceModel,ASD_OSM）,并采用2次四分位距准则（DoubleQuantilerangescriterion,2Q准则）设置距离检测门限阈值,将超出阈值的序列判定为异常序列。某航天器传感器遥测子序列异常检测试验结果表明,提出的检测方法能够有效减少漏判,提高卫星遥测伪周期数据异常序列检测的准确性。     

激光捷联惯导车载重力测量试验

惯性导航系统中加速度计测量的比力是载体运动加速度与重力加速度的矢量和,当载体运动加速度能够被有效分离时,满足一定精度水平的惯性导航系统就可以成为动态重力仪。捷联式惯性导航系统体积小、重量轻、系统组成简单,可以在记录下惯性器件原始输出信息之后,通过离线处理过程进行数据处理和精度挖掘。本文通过对某高精度激光捷联惯导进行相应的软硬件更改,获得了兼具导航及重力测量功能的一体式动态重力仪。地面车载试验是验证动态重力仪的测量精度的有效手段之一,本文将一组高速公路重复测线的数据进行了处理和分析,结果表明在平均车速72km/hr的条件下,半波长分辨率2km,自由空间重力异常内符合精度优于1mGal。